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Indeed, many principal opposition parties in Burma—including the NLD and SNLD—have boycotted the National Convention, the nominal first step toward future elections.

 

Opposition groups in Burma may not accept the results of a new election—or even participate in such an election—initiated by a boycotted assembly, says Fu Cin Sian Thang.

 

The USDA—under the patronage of Than Shwe—is expected to refashion itself as a major political force. The association now claims to have 24 million members, though many were compelled to join the group or were enlisted without their knowledge. The activities of the USDA get heavy coverage in government-controlled news outlets.

 

Neighboring countries—particularly Thailand and China—approve the regime’s efforts toward implementing the road map, and international organizations such as the United Nations and Asean have rarely been critical, though they often encourage the regime to speed up the progress of reforms.

 

It is an open secret that the regime lacks popular support at home and abroad. However, Silverstein believes that the junta will make sure to “devise the stages so that the people will have no alternative but to follow the commands” of the military.

 

Silverstein adds that the USDA’s media blitz is reminiscent of moves made by other dictators from the region, such as the former Philippine dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who managed to earn widespread support through mass assemblies.

 

Htay Aung, a Burmese researcher with the exiled Network for Democracy and Development, shares Silverstein’s view, saying that the junta will not make the same mistakes that they did in 1990. He also doubts that the NLD could repeat their landslide victory of 1990.

 

As the seven-point plan—and its promise of free elections—proceeds at its interminable pace, perhaps the junta is thinking the same thing.