The constitutional draft will be adopted,” said Josef Silverstein, a long time US-based researcher on
Burma. “As long as the soldiers hold their arms at the ready, it will become the law,” he added.
A veteran politician based in Rangoon calculates that the junta can force the adoption of a constitution and sway the outcome of a referendum with little difficulty. The regime has held occasional mass rallies—backed by the government’s Union Solidarity and Development Association—throughout the country to increase popular support.
Since 1990, opposition groups in Burma have suffered setbacks. The NLD and the Shan National League for Democracy—winner of the second largest share of votes in the 1990 election—have been crippled by the junta’s suppression of their political activities. Leaders from both parties are currently detained or in prison, and the NLD continues to wrestle with political divisions among its members.
Prominent student leaders—some of whom have recently been released from prison—may represent a potentially viable political force in Burma. Two such leaders, Min Ko Naing and Ko Ko Gyi, have expressed their strong desire to help solve the political crisis in Burma.
Several ethnic ceasefire groups could also wield some power in future elections and play a vital role in the National Convention, where the views of Burma’s ethnic minorities rarely get much attention.
However, their right to participate in the National Convention and the drafting of a new constitution has been questioned by some because the ceasefire groups’ delegates are not elected and therefore have no right to represent their respective ethnic groups.
“We will not accept this constitution,” said Fu Cin Sian Thang, chairman of the Zomi National Congress and an ethnic member of the Committee Representing the People’s Parliament.
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