Than Shwe Keeps the World Guessing on Election Date
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Thursday, March 28, 2024
Election watch

Than Shwe Keeps the World Guessing on Election Date


By AUNG NAING OO Monday, February 15, 2010


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We are already in the second month of 2010—the long promised election year when the people of Burma are expected to be called on to vote for the first time in 20 years. But where are the election laws? When will the election be held?

Burma has been swept repeatedly by rumours of the imminent announcement of the election laws and polling date. But like many widely rumoured events in the past, this too has failed so far to materialise.

The last time Burma held a general election, in 1990, the then State Law and Order Restoration Council issued the election law on May 31, 1989. The election took place exactly a year later in May 1990. That year gave all political parties the time to plan and campaign well ahead of the election.  

Recently, a blogger believed to be a government official predicted in a well-known blog, called “Padauk Myay,” that the long awaited election laws would be announced in late January, and that the party registration period would be between March and April.  

He even predicted a six-month campaign period and that the vote is likely to be held in November 2010. In his long analysis, he even provided samples of the election laws.

Burmese officials, including Foreign Minister U Nyan Win, have also recently told their counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that the election laws were nearly finished. 

So is the election coming soon? Well, don’t rush to the conclusion that the promulgation of the laws is imminent. It should be remembered that this is the government that took 15 years to write its 2008 constitution. We Burmese like to say “It will come but will take a long time.”

Like any Burmese skeptic, I assume the laws have long been finished and are sitting on the desk of junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe, awaiting announcement.

Some serious issues may underline the delay in the announcement. Although many regime critics assume the generals are simply stalling, it is possible that the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is not ready to announce the election laws and an election date because they are still wrestling with questions of how to handle or resolve some sticky issues.

The SPDC’s dilemma over the on-going disarmament of the country’s biggest armed ethnic groups—including the Wa and  the  Kachin—is a potential spoiler for the 2010 election, and could genuinely account for the delay in announcing the election laws.

The threat to resume hostilities, especially in the north, would make it difficult for the SPDC to implement many of the provisions stipulated in the constitution regarding the Wa and other ethnic groups. The military government may want to wait until negotiations are successful or the solution is sought on the battle field.

So far negotiations are continuing, and fighting has yet to resume. Nonetheless, concerns about the breakdown in the talks over disarmament may have some bearing in the delay.         

For the past two years or so, the SPDC has been approaching former high-ranking government officials, technocrats, retired lecturers, medical professionals and businesspeople countrywide to run for office for a new party that the government will form.

The targeted individuals have been told to use their stature in public to stand in the election, in which the junta assures them of  victory.

Several political observers in Burma believe the recruitment is  continuing. This is perhaps is one of the reasons for the delay in announcing the election laws and date, so as to give the generals more time to complete the process of recruiting civilians.
The constitution stipulates that military personnel selected to fill the 25 percent quota of parliamentary seats and other governmental positions reserved for military appointees can return to the army if and when they leave parliament.

No one knows exactly how many army representatives will be needed to fill up the combined parliamentary quota and other positions in the administration. Some observers say the SPDC may need up to 2,000 officers to fill seats in the bicameral parliaments as well as in the State, region and sub-ethnic assemblies and other appointed civilian positions.

These individuals are likely to be drawn from all ranks, with top officers possibly destined  for the positions of president, ministers and state premiers, and lesser ranks, such as majors and captains, assigned to ethnic self-administered zones, such as the Pa-O.

Military officers, however, are usually reluctant to leave the army and the prospect of being ordered to leave the ranks has unsettled many.  

Finding military recruits for the new legislative bodies is likely to be the most daunting task facing the SPDC in the 2010 process.



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Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
25/02/2010
We fully appreciate the difficulties our nation is facing and the frustrations our people are feeling. However, our people need to be patient because the Western style democracy is unachievable at present;our conditions are so raidcally different - in the West, academia, business and trade union movement are the sources of future politicial leaders. In Burma, as in Africa and other parts of the underdeveloped world, politicians have no proper education or only very limited education, if they do have some; U TinOo is a case in point. Without any experience of running the 'treasury' and foreign policy, without understanding how the commercial, banking,industrial and agricultural sectors of the economy function, we can imagine how the whole country will plunge into chaos under politicians; a risk we cannot afford to take. Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe is not a military man but because of extremely low level of understanding of politics and for national inexperience Zimbabwe suffers.

Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
25/02/2010
Dear U MoeAung,
How did you become to imagine that our king, your king, His Majesty has sore lips? From drinking Cristal champagne?
Please explain your parable of the pancake;we don't get it.What are you trying to say?
Of course Senior General (HERZOG in German)ThanShwe has a lot on his plate;most importantly the self-styled leaders, rebels like KIO and KNU, who have never been democratically elected by the respective ethnicities. (If they were it could have been a very different scenerio: do you get it?)

We did say Sen.Gen must wait for Royal Command.Please do not think that as you are low life or insignificant in the West, every Burmese is like you; our claimant in exile to the throne of Burma Shwebomin II is absolutley great. Why are you still in denial? Be humble and you will be noble.

With best wishes,

MINGLABAR

United Myanmar patriotic Front
[email protected]

Moe Aung Wrote:
21/02/2010
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF,

His Maj had better get his sore lip fixed before the pancake's ready. Best tell Than Shwe to hurry up frying the pancake.

Seriously, TS has enough on his plate. The NLD remains his main concern despite a crack within its ranks which he will try and exploit to split the party. The unruly ethnic ceasefire groups, enriched and strengthened by his own policies, complete with Chinese patrons like himself, now pose an inconvenient obstacle to his plans. So the scheming and waiting game continues. Whatever the upshot of all this may turn out far from satisfactory to him. Best laid plans, eh?

Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
20/02/2010
1.He is trying to save his own life.
COMMENT:what's wrong with that? No turkey has to vote for Christmas. Get the point?
2.Do you think he cares how many are dying?COMMENT:No one can say whether or not he cares;only Sen.Gen Than Shwe knows what is in his heart. Logical?
3.But he cares about himself very much.
COMMENT:Do you care about yourself? Every living human, barring those in permanent pain, or animal, wants to survive. It's natural.
4.Therefore, he will keep playing until he gets what we wants.
COMMENT:That is a natural outcome; nothing wrong with that provided the outcome is mutually satisfactory - for the nation and for him.
CONCLUSION:Sen Gen Than Shwe has protected the state and endeavoured to regain sovereignty and territorial integrity. Uneducated, with a little knowledge (dangerous)and jaundiced view of Burma's situation keeps attacking him.
Remember the progress made in many areas,compared to the conditions under BSPP and ShuMaung.

Zam Mang Wrote:
18/02/2010
Worrying about the election will bring nothing good. We all know what Than Shwe is doing. We all already know what the result will be. Why should we spend our precious time on this nonsense issue?
We all know that Than Shwe does not want to go to the Death Chamber. Therefore, he will never ever let the power go away from his hands or from his trusted ones' hands. He is trying to save his own life. Do you think he cares how many are dying? But he cares about himself very much. Therefore, he will keep playing until he gets what we wants.

Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
16/02/2010
Before 1990 elections, Burmese ambassador obliquely suggested to our exiled claimant to the Burmese throne that if he wihsed, he could be President. But our exiled claimant to the Burmese throne said 'I will think about it'; we have leant. In Burmese 'I will think about it' is same as saying no politely. Reason were:
1. American friends advised him not to accept anything less than Kingship.
2. He himself believed that there must be a constitution, written or unwritten, to establish an 'executive', ie government by POPULAR VOTE.

Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
16/02/2010
Regent Senior General Than-Shwe must wait for instructions from exiled claimant to the Burmese throne, Shwebomin II.
As simple as that!

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