We are already in the second month of 2010—the long promised election year when the people of Burma are expected to be called on to vote for the first time in 20 years. But where are the election laws? When will the election be held?

Burma has been swept repeatedly by rumours of the imminent announcement of the election laws and polling date. But like many widely rumoured events in the past, this too has failed so far to materialise.

The last time Burma held a general election, in 1990, the then State Law and Order Restoration Council issued the election law on May 31, 1989. The election took place exactly a year later in May 1990. That year gave all political parties the time to plan and campaign well ahead of the election.  

Recently, a blogger believed to be a government official predicted in a well-known blog, called “Padauk Myay,” that the long awaited election laws would be announced in late January, and that the party registration period would be between March and April.  

He even predicted a six-month campaign period and that the vote is likely to be held in November 2010. In his long analysis, he even provided samples of the election laws.

Burmese officials, including Foreign Minister U Nyan Win, have also recently told their counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations that the election laws were nearly finished. 

So is the election coming soon? Well, don’t rush to the conclusion that the promulgation of the laws is imminent. It should be remembered that this is the government that took 15 years to write its 2008 constitution. We Burmese like to say “It will come but will take a long time.”

Like any Burmese skeptic, I assume the laws have long been finished and are sitting on the desk of junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe, awaiting announcement.

Some serious issues may underline the delay in the announcement. Although many regime critics assume the generals are simply stalling, it is possible that the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) is not ready to announce the election laws and an election date because they are still wrestling with questions of how to handle or resolve some sticky issues.

The SPDC’s dilemma over the on-going disarmament of the country’s biggest armed ethnic groups—including the Wa and  the  Kachin—is a potential spoiler for the 2010 election, and could genuinely account for the delay in announcing the election laws.

The threat to resume hostilities, especially in the north, would make it difficult for the SPDC to implement many of the provisions stipulated in the constitution regarding the Wa and other ethnic groups. The military government may want to wait until negotiations are successful or the solution is sought on the battle field.

So far negotiations are continuing, and fighting has yet to resume. Nonetheless, concerns about the breakdown in the talks over disarmament may have some bearing in the delay.         

For the past two years or so, the SPDC has been approaching former high-ranking government officials, technocrats, retired lecturers, medical professionals and businesspeople countrywide to run for office for a new party that the government will form.

The targeted individuals have been told to use their stature in public to stand in the election, in which the junta assures them of  victory.

Several political observers in Burma believe the recruitment is  continuing. This is perhaps is one of the reasons for the delay in announcing the election laws and date, so as to give the generals more time to complete the process of recruiting civilians.
The constitution stipulates that military personnel selected to fill the 25 percent quota of parliamentary seats and other governmental positions reserved for military appointees can return to the army if and when they leave parliament.

No one knows exactly how many army representatives will be needed to fill up the combined parliamentary quota and other positions in the administration. Some observers say the SPDC may need up to 2,000 officers to fill seats in the bicameral parliaments as well as in the State, region and sub-ethnic assemblies and other appointed civilian positions.

These individuals are likely to be drawn from all ranks, with top officers possibly destined  for the positions of president, ministers and state premiers, and lesser ranks, such as majors and captains, assigned to ethnic self-administered zones, such as the Pa-O.

Military officers, however, are usually reluctant to leave the army and the prospect of being ordered to leave the ranks has unsettled many.  

Finding military recruits for the new legislative bodies is likely to be the most daunting task facing the SPDC in the 2010 process. So far, this issue has not been discussed openly, and no one knows how the SPDC will select its military candidates for parliament. From the generals' perspective, this is perhaps another obstacle to the election.

At this stage, it is unclear whether the National League for Democracy (NLD) will participate. The SPDC’s past actions indicate that it may not want the NLD to contest the election. The party has also stuck to its demands for a review of the Constitution, the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and recognition of the results of the 1990 election as conditions for its participation.

Despite strict party policies, however, moderates within the  NLD want to contest the election. They face formidable opposition from NLD purists, who are reluctant to give up on long-held party principles.

The SPDC, for its part, is in a quandary, uncertain whether to  allow the NLD to take part in the election, aware that it will lose credibility and legitimacy if it bars the party from participating.

It seems as if Than Shwe has not made any decision about how best to tackle the NLD, which may be another reason for the delay in announcing election laws.

The pro-regime Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) is widely expected to be transformed into a political party. But a long-awaited USDA congress in November 2009 ended without any such indication.

The SPDC will need a political party of national caliber for the 2010 election, since it is already giving assurances of electoral victory to its recruited candidates. As the year drags on, the  military government will need to move ahead to create its own party sooner rather than later.

The biggest questions looming over Burma are who will succeed the Than Shwe and who will be the next president of Burma, a position constitutionally designed to come from the armed forces? Than Shwe is keeping the country and the international community guessing.

Any or all of the above issues may be contributing to the delay in the announcement of election laws and the election date. The government must also be struggling with other issues, such as whether to release political prisoners before or after the election, and such infrastructure constraints as the state of preparedness of parliament buildings that are still under construction.

Many speculate that the election will not take place until late in  2010. This sounds highly probable, given that the SPDC’s preparations are not yet finished, as evidenced by its failure to announce the election laws.