So far, this issue has not been discussed openly, and no one knows how the SPDC will select its military candidates for parliament. From the generals' perspective, this is perhaps another obstacle to the election.
At this stage, it is unclear whether the National League for Democracy (NLD) will participate. The SPDC’s past actions indicate that it may not want the NLD to contest the election. The party has also stuck to its demands for a review of the Constitution, the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and recognition of the results of the 1990 election as conditions for its participation.
Despite strict party policies, however, moderates within the NLD want to contest the election. They face formidable opposition from NLD purists, who are reluctant to give up on long-held party principles.
The SPDC, for its part, is in a quandary, uncertain whether to allow the NLD to take part in the election, aware that it will lose credibility and legitimacy if it bars the party from participating.
It seems as if Than Shwe has not made any decision about how best to tackle the NLD, which may be another reason for the delay in announcing election laws.
The pro-regime Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) is widely expected to be transformed into a political party. But a long-awaited USDA congress in November 2009 ended without any such indication.
The SPDC will need a political party of national caliber for the 2010 election, since it is already giving assurances of electoral victory to its recruited candidates. As the year drags on, the military government will need to move ahead to create its own party sooner rather than later.
The biggest questions looming over Burma are who will succeed the Than Shwe and who will be the next president of Burma, a position constitutionally designed to come from the armed forces? Than Shwe is keeping the country and the international community guessing.
Any or all of the above issues may be contributing to the delay in the announcement of election laws and the election date. The government must also be struggling with other issues, such as whether to release political prisoners before or after the election, and such infrastructure constraints as the state of preparedness of parliament buildings that are still under construction.
Many speculate that the election will not take place until late in 2010. This sounds highly probable, given that the SPDC’s preparations are not yet finished, as evidenced by its failure to announce the election laws.
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