Give Suu Kyi a Blank Check

In early November 2010, Burma held a sham general election while Aung San Suu Kyi was still under house arrest, and even if she had been free the country’s Political Parties Registration Law would have prohibited her from running for a seat in the military- and ex-military-dominated Parliament.

In contrast, last week Burma’s Parliament passed amendments to the Political Parties Registration Law that would allow both Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy (NLD), to legally participate in the political process. Moreover, President Thein Sein appears to be seeking what may be the ultimate stamp of legitimacy for his new government by actively attempting to persuade Suu Kyi to register the NLD and run for office.

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

On Sunday, Suu Kyi held her fourth meeting in as many months with Labor Minister Aung Kyi—the government’s liaison to the opposition leader—during which they reportedly discussed both the Political Parties Registration Law amendments and a wide range of the country’s most pressing issues, including the conditions surrounding an amnesty, peace talks with ethnic armed groups and economic and financial matters.

Following the meeting, the pro-democracy leader was upbeat and said that in the coming days she will hold a series of meetings with NLD leaders, ethnic leaders and other opposition allies. When asked if the NLD would register, however, Suu Kyi kept her cards close to her vest. "Once we see the law, then we will hold a party meeting and decide whether or not we will register," she said.

Reading between the lines, Suu Kyi was saying that if the negotiations taking place over the details of the Political Parties Registration Law and the other major issues being discussed result in terms acceptable to her and the NLD, then the party will re-register and contest in future elections, including the upcoming by-election for seats vacated—mostly by MPs joining Thein Sein’s administration—since the November 2010 election.

To the dismay of critics and observers who just a few months earlier dismissed her relevance and ability to lead, Suu Kyi is now more influential and popular than ever, and both Thein Sein and major international players such as the US have clearly acknowledged her as the main opposition leader. This was confirmed in spades by her one-on-one meeting with Thein Sein in August, and reconfirmed by her latest meeting with his liaison, as well as the government’s not so subtle attempt to court her into the formal political process.

Suu Kyi is well aware of the factions and rivalries within the Burmese government and clearly sees Thein Sein as the horse to place her bet on. This was reflected in an article in the Wall Street Journal, where she said she believes the president is honest and straightforward.

This perception did not happen immediately after the new government was formed; it took time to emerge over a period of mutual confidence building. Suu Kyi was first allowed a minor personal excursion to Bagan, during which she took pains to not be too overtly political or do anything to unleash a backlash from government hard-liners.

On July 19, Thein Sein’s government allowed Suu Kyi even more leeway when it permitted her and some 2,000 people to march from NLD headquarters to the Martyr’s Day ceremony, where police officials did not intervene and actually helped facilitate the biggest public opposition gathering since the 2007 crackdown on pro-democracy protesters. Then on August 14, Suu Kyi was allowed to travel to Pegu and meet with supporters. In both instances, Suu Kyi kept things low-key and did not take advantage of the situation by stirring the crowd into any kind of anti-government frenzy, although she clearly could have done so if she had wanted to.

After Martyr’s Day, the meetings between Suu Kyi and government minister Aung Kyi resumed, and Suu Kyi saw a perceptible difference in her interactions with the new government versus the old military junta. Under the previous regime, Aung Kyi was merely a messenger of the senior generals. But to Suu Kyi’s delight, this time he was given more authority to speak on behalf of the government and brought decent proposals on the key issues to be discussed, including the release of political prisoners.

Suu Kyi was even more pleasantly surprised when Thein Sein invited her to visit to Naypyidaw to meet with him and attend a government-sponsored economic forum.