If so, then this may be the best chance that Suu Kyi has to force Thein Sein and his new government allies to put their cards on the table and show how serious they are about meaningful and irreversible reform.
Given the internal rivalries and the possibility that the balance of power could tip back towards the hard-liners if Thein Sein and his reformist group falters, some political analysts have argued that Thein Sein should receive sufficient support from inside and outside of Burma to strengthen both his reform agenda and his internal power without expecting him to give too much in return at this point.
Others disagree, however, suspecting that the government is attempting to increase its legitimacy and obtain international concessions while making only small changes around the edge while maintaining firm control at the center.
Suu Kyi is aware of the arguments on both sides and of the pitfalls of taking one position or the other. But despite her improved relations with the government and their open attempts to woo her, she must maintain her role as the main opposition figure and maximize this opportunity for the benefit of all the people of Burma, including the country’s diverse ethnic groups.
Suu Kyi has received significant support from ethnic groups since her release from house arrest in November and, like her father, she will not betray her ethnic allies. Their issues, including the ongoing armed conflicts, have been one of her top agenda items when meeting with government officials, and she seems committed to following through on her offer to act as a peace broker between the government and ethnic groups.
Since Suu Kyi’s release from house arrest, there has been an ongoing debate about whether she should remain as head of the NLD or leave the party and become a national figure without allegiance to one particular organization, allowing her to lead the effort towards national reconciliation by being an independent player in a position to bridge the gaps between all stakeholders. Suu Kyi is also aware of shortcomings in the NLD and the need for reform, so it won’t be surprising if in the future she delegates more authority and power to a younger generation of respected leaders, some of whom may currently be outside the NLD fold. There has even been a rumor that she has been offered a government position, but has turned it down.
However, regardless of what Suu Kyi chooses to do about her NLD affiliation in the future, or whether she decides to run for office or stay outside the day-to-day political fray, what is now necessary is that the positive energy between the government and opposition camps be used to bring about real change that will have a significant impact on the lives of the people of Burma.
The many political dissidents still in prison, the ethnic soldiers fighting in the jungle, those suffering from human rights abuses such as rape and forced labor, refugees and displaced people along the border and all the people struggling just to survive in Burma deserve a better future, and they have already placed their faith in Suu Kyi as their leader and the chief negotiator on their behalf.
What will be required is a combination of goodwill and pragmatism together with tough resolve and an unflinching negotiating strategy regarding key issues. In order to obtain the best results, both the Burmese people and the international community need to speak with one voice. Suu Kyi is that voice, and she should be given both our full support and a blank check to cut the best deal possible under the current circumstances—which all signs indicate could, if the negotiations are handled properly, be a good one for the people of Burma.
Since 1988 uprising, army was deeply mistrusted due to their inconsistent and dishonest behavior. Like it or not, they're most hated organization among general public, that's why army backed USDP can never go for free and fair election.
This is the time for Tatmadaw to salvage its image by performing constantly and showing integrity in reform process which lead to free and fair democratic way of progressing in Myanmar.
Mg Thant Wrote:
08/11/2011
I love the way this article presents the current political scene in Burma. I do not have a strong background in politics to comment on this, but I think we should not expect Daw Aung San Su Kyi to have the exact same kind of leadership that General Aung San had. They are in very different positions. I have faith in Daw Aung San Su Kyi that she will be able to deal with this complex turning point in Burmese politics and bring about peace and freedom, which are also the priorities in her father's independence struggle.
Adam Selene Wrote:
08/11/2011
For the record, I do think that ASSK and the NLD constitute the only serious opposition. As such the talks with Thein Sein and the possible registration are good news.
But I really don't get all this hoopla. As a politician ASSK didn't and doesn't impress me. Too many strategic mistakes, too much dancing to the tune of the junta. Of course the NLD won the elections of 1990. No surprise, given the great name of Aung San and the fact that the regime was universally hated. I find it hard to think of something she has achieved for her people as a politician.
I hope the NLD gets some good advice and will finally come with a programme of some substance. And I also hope that more youngsters will get a chance in leading positions, because this CEC of old men is bound to be conservative and has so much history with the regime that it is hard to get past the past...
Norman Hla Wrote:
07/11/2011
The creating the killing fields at the ethnics area by "than shwe" is unacceptable whatever reasons given by than shwe as i never hear that ethnics invade Rangoon and Mandalay in my life. Ethnics issue is more important than any other issues, including releasing of political prisoners in Burma in term of moral point of view( killing own innocent people)because ethnics are killed by bama army daily. DASSK has a duty for fulfill his late father's General Aung San promises on all ethnics. Continuing killing the ethnics means Zero of any change or dialogue from all. DASSK must know that revolution against than shwe's colony needs ethnics support as it happens in Burmese history. EU and US must realize that killing innocent civilians is crime like Libya matter as there should not be double standard.
Tom Tun Wrote:
07/11/2011
If Aung San Suu Kyi is a true negotiator, she should be negotiating true value of individual rights and freedom, true democracy rather than displinary democracy, nature of true constitution, Ethnicity and confederation. Those are hot buttons of Burma. If those problems can be solve, all of the remaining political prisoners will walk free as the problem are solved. I personally believe that ASSK has leadership ability and understanding of true Burmese politic and how Burma relates to the world. Lets see how will it play out. If things are out of hand, we can always shout out the subjects that we don't like. Lets hope for better Burma.
Myint Thein, Dallas Wrote:
07/11/2011
I don't know whether the "new" civilian government has reformers, but some are clearly more competent than previous SLORC/SPDC generals. Pe Thet Khin, the health minister, is widely respected. The foreign minister, Wunna Maung Lwin, graduated first in his DSA class. His foreign ministry,unlike SLORC/SPDC, is now trying to help Burmese refugees in Thailand. The new head of the civil rights commission, Win Mra, was known to us in our teenage years as "Elvis". In my books, anyone who wears Jeans is pro-American.
My advise to ASSK is to register NLD as a political party and wait to contest the next scheduled general election with a full slate. Don't settle for a consolation prize and contest for a few token seats.
We will support the lifting of US sanctions if free and fair elections are held in the next scheduled general election. NLD and KIO must be permitted full and complete participation. Let there be no misunderstanding, we will not abandon the Kachins, our WW2 ally.
Ryan Wrote:
06/11/2011
Than Shwe's plan of keeping players busy without much substance is working well.
Releasing political prisoners is one of the cards on his deck but not the last card. He wants maximum return from that single card while opponent is running out of remaining cards.
His exist plan is to stretch out all the possible time-line to the world as far as he could just create ample room for himself and families/cronies.
What the world communities could do more to speed up changes and reform?
Probably a single answer is; giving more recognition and offering more encouragement to Thein Sein government.
Adam Selene Wrote:
06/11/2011
ASSK has been used like a pawn in the bigger plans of the army. That the NLD left the political process last year was part of the army plan and that they return now as a minority after the by elections is part of their plan also. It will only lend more credibility to their reform scenario.
That ASSK has repeatedly let herself be used - and that she blundered strategically on two other occasions too - does make her a rather poor politician. She presides over a party of old man without a real thought through programme (I am astounded by the lack of substance everytime I talk to one of the NLD leaders).
In my book Aung San is a true and deserved national hero. His daughter took some of his limelight but really can't stand in his shadow. Blank checks? That's Fanboy talk, nothing more.
Nonetheless, the rest of the opposition is so divided and marginal that ASSK and the NLD are the only option. That says a lot about the poor state Burmese opposition politics is in now. I just hope the NLD will get its act together finally.
simon Wrote:
05/11/2011
Change is often very hard to predict. Eg. the dismantling of the former Soviet Union and Yugoslavia, 9-11 attack, the recent Arab Spring. All we can do is monitor the progress and make our best attempts to predict the next step. Aung Zaw does it as well as anyone can re Burma. Good luck to Daw Suu and all Burmese interested in a democratic future with increased living standards.
Khin Wrote:
05/11/2011
I am not only thank DSSK but also her family for all personal sacrifices made by them for Burma.
Fred Wrote:
04/11/2011
I think the NLD should register as a political party. In the future I hope that it merges with other political parties. A small number of large political parties is usually more effective than a large number of small political parties.
Garrett Wrote:
04/11/2011
Moe Aung wrote:
"It's a balancing act which can be misconstrued easily but unless she is losing sight of her real goal of ending military misrule she deserves to have all of us fully behind her."
This is the truth. However, as we have seen with the Myitsone dam protests, & the recent farmer's protest, it remains the responsibility of those Burmese citizens whose actions can be seen by the public & the media to provide the impetus for TRUE social & political change in Burma.
More importantly, in order to counter all of the positive publicity they receive without following through on their putative reforms, the regime's feet need to be publicly held to the fire whenever they say they are going to do something, & then fail to do what they promised.
It would a good start for Aung San Suu Kyi's Burman supporters to begin publicly reminding her AND the regime that they want their Burma army sons to end the brutal occupation & persecution of the ethnic homelands & come home.
Tony Wrote:
04/11/2011
Practically, it is Aung San Suu Kyi who has already given the military- or the "moderate reformers" as she and a large group of deniers like to call them- a blank check by loudly endorsing in international press.
Whatever people think is not likely to count much. The sufferings of people definitely don't. Anybody wants pictures and videos of the military cruelly attacking the innocent people they are everywhere.
For example, the "Parliament" stands on the blood and burial ground of true owners of the land.
NLD would surely enjoy it soon.
Setkyar Min Wrote:
04/11/2011
I cannot agree more with Aung Zaw. This article is an accurate presentation of the facts and a wise analysis of the events taking place in Burma which might culminate in a genuine national reconciliation and a fresh start for reconstruction of a free and democratic country. There should be no illusions that the people of Burma deserve better. I would also like to take this opportunity to express my thanks to ASSK for all personal sacrifices made by her for the people and the country. No bigger sacrifice can possibly be made by most of us, however much we love our country. As for Aung Zaw, I just want to say,"keep up your high standard of journalism as there is a big role waiting for you to play in a free and democratic Burma."
Signed: Setkyar Min
Yebaw Wrote:
04/11/2011
Well, I have been told that Daw Suu is "Winning Card- Joker in a deck of playing card" for the military junta. If they need her, they will use as a winning card to win the session of a game. If they do not want her, she will be a bad card,in gambling, minus points for not using.
Now, they need her for many aspects, one of them is to get the chair of the Asean and to ease the US and western block's sanction.
Good luck for Daw Suu and NLD Party.
Than Lwin Wrote:
03/11/2011
Daw Aung San Suu Kyi is people’s leader. As long as Burmese are concerned, she is Burma’s leader, not an opposition leader. 1990 election has already overwhelmingly demonstrated that fact, the world all along recognizes that fact and it is proven again and again whenever she makes tours around the country. She loves us, we love her, we want her to lead us. Period.
Moe Aung Wrote:
03/11/2011
Whilst her heroic father certainly is a hard act to follow, ASSK remains the champion of the peoples of Burma and she is going about the business very cautiously and tactfully. Her grooming of Thein Sein (and vice versa on their part) seems to be working so far, and so long as she does not fall into the trap of appearing to collaborate enthusiastically with entrenched power and shoring it up she will be on the straight and narrow.
It's a balancing act which can be misconstrued easily but unless she is losing sight of her real goal of ending military misrule she deserves to have all of us fully behind her.
min zaw Wrote:
03/11/2011
I doubt your view
Kyi May Kaung Wrote:
03/11/2011
Good article, Ko Aung Zaw.
We only hope Thein Sein will continue in power and the "reforms" will increase in scope and the army will stop bombarding the ethnic groups.
It's been reported that chemical weapons have been used against the Kachin, so the army has to really STOP human rights abuses and try to make amends such as returning farmers' confiscated land.
This is a very long shot.
Daw Suu's expression and body language after her 4th meeting was as chilly as after her first, despite family dinners and whatnot in between.
Gestures are not enough.
Kyi May Kaung (Ph.D.)
Bwanyunt Wrote:
03/11/2011
Aung Zaw - well said in this article. Your guess may not be wrong. DASSK may become prime minster of federal government, who knows? This is the best interest of country, without bloodshed and wisely move toward for the sake of poor people. Their suffering is enough from now.
Aung Zaw, you're really better than Dr. Zarni or other so-called scholars.
Thura Wrote:
03/11/2011
Fully agreed. We should NOT stick to Shwegondine Declaration or other past policies. We are now in a different political environment and so let DASSK assess the current situation and strike the best possible deal.
Ohn Wrote:
03/11/2011
What a load of nonsense! There is no more "Opposition Party".
That "Parliament" thing is build by the inland Chinese mates of the "Sit-tut" using the people's money on the land forcibly grabbed from rightful owners some of whom died.
The people in there are funnily dressed opportunists.
Myitsone temporary stoppage is simply Than Shwe double crossing the Chinese.
This year sees more rapes, more killings and more displacements and more torture than before. Than Shwe groups' theft of state property in the last year is more than all Ne Win ever embezzled. Kyat appreciates against the dollar because Chinese put in money for buying off public national treasure.
Opium and ATS production is top this year.
Aung San Suu Kyi now works as "Publicist" for Thein Sein.
NLD cannot wait to get into "Power Sharing".
In spite of all this people will march on.
KML Wrote:
03/11/2011
Burma witnessed Zero-sum game ever since her independence. Win-win situation for all stakeholders is very much in waiting and highly appreciated. In this auspicious window of opportunity, no ethnicity / nationals should be left behind.
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