Cautious Optimism and Continued Vigilance

The second meeting in two weeks between Burmese government minister Aung Kyi and opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi provides reason for cautious optimism that Burma will see some meaningful progress in the future. But based on past experience, all stakeholders must remain wary and maintain pressure on the government.

The joint statement released following last week’s meeting stated: "Both sides will cooperate on stability, tranquility and development of the country as a gesture of fulfilling the genuine needs of all the people."

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

In addition, the statement mentioned constructive cooperation for the continued progress of democracy and further development of economic and social institutions—but it ominously added that "contradictory opinions" would be avoided.

In a rather bizarre twist, during the same week that Aung Kyi and Suu Kyi met in Rangoon, the government’s minister of information, Kyaw Hsan, held a rare news conference in Naypyidaw, where he told reporters that Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD)—which was officially disbanded for failing to register for the 2010 election—should re-register as a political party.

"In view of national reconciliation, the government is delicately and carefully handling the issue of the NLD, which has no legal right to exist, offering it opportunities to serve the national interest in cohesion," Kyaw Hsan said.

“If the NLD wants to get involved in politics, it should set up a legal party through formal procedures. Anyhow, the government is doing its best to invite the NLD to its national reconciliation process," the minister of information added.

On the positive side, Kyaw Hsan used the term “national reconciliation,” which had previously been abandoned under the Than Shwe regime in favor of the foreboding phrase, “national reconsolidation.”

This indicates at least some softening of the government’s hard line stance on talks with the opposition and ethnic groups, but there has been no mention of any changes to the 2008 Constitution, which stacks the deck on behalf of the ruling party and the military to the detriment of the NLD and all other opposition parties. And if the NLD re-registers, it will be required to state that it agrees to act in accordance with a Constitution that it has dismissed as undemocratic.

Hearing these types of mixed-messages, Suu Kyi and the NLD have lately been tip-toeing along in hopes of not stepping on a political landmine that would result in a government crackdown on their activities.

Suu Kyi’s one-day trip to Pegu is a good example—during the excursion she did nothing to provoke the government, seemed to receive its coordination and revealed nothing of the dialogue between her and its officials, saying she did not want to create false hope.

In addition, Suu Kyi has recently issued a few statements under her own name, without mentioning the NLD, prompting observers to suggest that the Nobel Peace Laureate is taking personal pains to avoid a clampdown on the party.

Although most would agree that it’s too early to say whether the meeting between Aung Kyi and Suu Kyi will lead to any breakthrough, some senior NLD leaders and Suu Kyi’s personal lieutenants were upbeat after the meeting, indicating that the discussions were quite substantive.

Suu Kyi, no doubt, made sure to ask the government to act in good faith and to take meaningful steps towards reconciliation, such as releasing all political prisoners, ceasing the military offensive in ethnic regions and confirming the legitimate status of the NLD, with her as its leader.

If the government delivers what Suu Kyi has asked for and the NLD decides to re-register, the party will likely participate in the 2015 election. And if the NLD does stand in the election, the manner in which the government conducts the polls will be a true test of whether meaningful change is taking place in Burma.

All in all, with respect to the meetings between Aung Kyi and Suu Kyi, it is important to welcome the discussions and encourage more meetings with the goal of achieving real progress as a result of the dialogue.

But in the past, the Burmese government has used talks with Suu Kyi in order to appease and gain benefits from the international community, and once those benefits were in hand the regime went back to its oppressive ways.