Slightly more than 200 political prisoners, including Burma’s most famous comedian, Zarganar, were released during last week’s amnesty. While the releases are to be welcomed for those who are now free and their families, Zarganar captured the general mood when he stated that he could not rejoice over his freedom as long as so many of his friends remain detained.
Given the strong and numerous signals from key people in authority in Burma in recent weeks, there was reason to expect that more prominent dissidents would be released as well as more prisoners of conscience in total. At present, the amnesty seems little different from previous amnesties granted by Burma’s various authoritarian regimes—which have yet to amount to the beginning of change to believe in.
Instead, we are urged to be patient—yet again. In a recent email to the Wall Street Journal, a representative of Burma’s Ministry of Information suggests that more releases can be forthcoming, but that it depends on those prisoners who have just been released, the democratic opposition and the rest of the world. This is to turn things on their head. Does he imply that the responsibility for more releases now falls on former prisoners, the democracy movement and the international community?
Shortly before the releases took place, Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide paid a visit to Burma—accompanied by Norwegian national broadcaster NRK. His visit played a key role in strengthening expectations as Burma’s parliamentary speaker Thura Shwe Mann seems to have promised during a meeting between the two that releases were forthcoming “within days.” The news quickly spread worldwide—with NRK as the main source.
In an interview with NRK, the Deputy Foreign Minister also noted that Burma is at the beginning of an extensive process of change towards full blown democracy. His diagnosis, however, still lacks a strong basis. It is far too early to conclude. There have been many changes in Burma over the past year. Since the election in November 2010, Burma has a new Parliament, a new civilian government and other institutions associated with a democratic political system. But these institutions can also be found in non-democratic systems, as for instance in neighboring Laos, Vietnam and Cambodia. The government has also become more tolerant towards the activities of media and civil society, but Burma remains some distance away from a process of liberalization, and detentions and sentencing have also continued.
Whether Burma will eventually become a full blown democracy depends on those who have positions of power in the country and how they make use of their power and influence. Experience shows that the attitudes of state leaders towards democracy and respect for human rights is of critical importance in a country undergoing reforms in order to ensure that these reforms move the country in a democratic direction.
A number of observers have noted that what is taking place in Burma seems to be linked to internal differences within the regime between moderate forces and so-called hardliners from the old regime. Burma’s new president, Thein Sein, is seen as belonging to the moderate faction. However, that does not make him a democrat. His primary role is to improve Burma’s relations with the rest of the world. The main proponents of democratic values in Burma remain the opposition led by Aung San Suu Kyi. This is one of the reasons why the dialogue between her and President Thein Sein is of critical importance. Until and unless the attitudes of leading figures in powerful positions change in Burma, a more sober assessment of the potential for Burma to become a full blown democracy remains in order.
Barth Eide made his assessment of the situation in Burma before last week’s releases had taken place. His statements have on a number of occasions revealed Norway’s limited understanding of the situation in the country. At times, it seems more important for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to be able to announce that developments in Burma are moving in the right direction than to make a serious assessment of the situation on the ground. This is the second time the Deputy Foreign Minister displayed a certain naïveté in his dealings with Burma.
During his previous visit to the country last March, Barth Eide also concluded that developments in Burma are moving in the right direction. At that time, his statement stood in contrast to the views of the UN Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Burma, Tomas Ojeas Quintana, who at the same time was visiting Burma’s border areas to meet with victims of the armed conflicts in the country. The special Rapporteur noted that his findings represented a serious obstacle to Burma’s democratic development. That was six months ago, and little has changed in border areas since then.
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