Opinion

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Norwegian Naïveté in Burma?

By CAMILLA BUZZI Monday, October 17, 2011

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This time, Barth Eide’s statement that there is a general mood in Burma expectant of exciting things to happen stands in contrast to the wait-and-see attitude that predominates among my Burmese friends and acquaintances. They have been disappointed too many times already and find it difficult to be hopeful—yet again. Barth Eide—and Norway—could benefit from a dialogue with broader sections of the Burmese population.

Barth Eide argues that Norway should be ahead and reward the regime for positive changes. His recommendation is connected in particular to the possible removal of sanctions. The logic is odd. A reward is normally given after a positive act—as an encouragement to continue doing the right thing. To reward in advance is to miss the function of rewards.

Most observers who have followed the situation in Burma over time recognize that sanctions in themselves cannot create a democratic Burma. There is broad agreement that the main function of the sanctions is to serve as a political instrument for the opposition. This is not the time for Norway to soften its support for the forces of reform in the country. It remains essential to listen to the viewpoints of Aung San Suu Kyi. As she also told NRK: When the day comes for lifting the sanctions, she will let the whole world know.

Burma has improved its international reputation recently by engaging in a dialogue with Aung San Suu Kyi, inter alia to discuss the armed conflicts in the country, by putting an end to the building of a dam on the Irrawaddy River following widespread public protests and by suggesting that media censorship needs to stop. But there is still a long way to go from words to action. If the regime is serious about peace talks and dialogue, the release of ethnic leaders, notably Khun Htun Oo, would have been a powerful signal. If the regime is serious about listening to public opinion, the 88 generation students led by Min Ko Naing should be free. And if the regime is serious about ending censorship, detained journalists should be walking out of the prison gates.

The opposition and the international community have recognized for many years that the release of all political prisoners is the most important confidence building step that could be undertaken by Burma’s rulers. On two occasions over the past year, President Thein Sein has promised amnesties with little substance. More empty promises could undermine the impression that he is a person the opposition can work with—and the value of further releases.

Barth Eide finds that things are changing so fast in Burma that it is almost too fast. What has changed in Burma is the discourse. The regime has finally realized how to make itself understood by the rest of the world. But the willingness and the ability to live up to its promises is still lacking.

Spring has yet to come to Burma. The window of opportunity that Barth Eide believes he has found in Burma only exists if those in power can match their words with action. Only then will it be possible to say that developments in Burma are moving in the right direction.

The author is a PhD candidate at the Institute for Human Rights and Peace Studies, Mahidol University. The opinions expressed here are her own.

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COMMENTS (12)

Ohn Wrote:

24/10/2011

If you are lied to once it is the liar's fault. If you are lied to several time...

Than Shwe and Co. would be lying about in stitches laughing how the same ruse can be used again and again for half a century.

There is no reform. There is no progress. If you think about it there is no real constitution either. It is written by people who wants it and keep it.

There are as much of moderates in Burmese government as the numbers of fairies in Disney Land.

There was a script, and there were actors.Each says the part correctly on cue including Aung San Suu Kyi.

Moe Aung Wrote:

21/10/2011

Pressure must not be relaxed let alone suspended both from the people inside and outside parliament, above and underground, as well as the world at large.

A reforming govt is at its most vulnerable. Get the Tatmadaw rank and file on side, and People Power will acquire real teeth. We need to level the playing field.

You can't just rely on an internal power struggle and a palace coup which could end up simply recycling military domination. But drive a wedge deep into them by all means.

Together we can topple this regime. The international community can only do so much. It's our fight not theirs. Power lies within the country. UNITE and PREPARE!

Nick Wrote:

21/10/2011

Is it worth it getting worked up about a comment made by a Deputy Foreign Minister with a small population on the other side of the world?

Another thing, Myistsone was delayed,not canceled.

Yes, let's wait and see. Something is better than nothing. If more political prisoners are released such as Min Ko Naing then I'll start to get interested. The sanctions, the war in the jungle, the political activism is all working. Keep pushing everyone.

Garrett Wrote:

21/10/2011

Adam Selene,

When you say numerous changes do you mean the many generals who changed from their uniforms into suits & longyis?

What you see now is unprecedented? What I see now is that the Burma army deployments to the ethnic homelands & their ongoing crusade of ethnic persecution has over 50 years of precedence.

Yes, there is still a lot to be done in the regime's bid to fool the Burman people & the World into believing that they are not the brutal military dictatorships they have traditionally been. They & their foreign financial & political advisors & their media spin-doctors are moving forward with what is either a miracle in Burma or a con-job.

I feel that perhaps you are like the generals, hoping that the World will cut them enough slack to have their investments double before the Burman majority wises up & the facade of the faux-democracy comes tumbling down.

The facade will only last until the regime stops saying YES, or the Burman people start saying NO.

Moe Aung Wrote:

20/10/2011

Adam Selene,

Surely you didn't mean tit-for-tat. That's what the people might want when it comes to payback time the longer they have to struggle and the heavier the price. But yes, it's horsetrading the govt is engaging in.

It's unprecedented because they found the West sticking to its guns with the sanctions and ASEAN, not quite falling for their 'democratization' makeover.

I agree we must encourage Thein Sein to do enough and say when but not until then. The govt obviously thinks a half full glass is enough. Expectations, eh? At least they have no shortage of cheerleaders.

ASSK is playing the long game but sailing close to the winds. The generals on the other hand are playing their habitual cat and mouse game both inside the country and abroad.

Myanmar Patriots,

"Great people do not need PhD. Laggards do."

Sour grapes, milord? Surely you are not implying you are one of those "great people", right? Perhaps all you need is blue blood, some accident of birth.

Germane Wrote:

20/10/2011

It is encouraging to see the changes happening in great stride. This is the way Myanmar should be. Myanmar people, although made up of various ethnic groups, do not seek for their own personal benefits. They have the gene that is germane--to love and serve their country. They are going to write a better history in front of the world that they care for the whole country and nation which is a heirloom from their great great ancestors. Myanmar will shine once more because of wise people with visions unlike days bygone. March forward and never look back. You are wise, brave, intelligent, faithful, and you love peace and righteousness.

Adam Selene Wrote:

18/10/2011

The changes in Burma are numerous. What we see now is unprecedented. Yes, there's still a lot to be done, but what we see now is a start that we didn't witness on this scale before.

It's quite clear what the regime wants. Firstly they want tit-for-tat. They took a number of steps and they expect to get some reward (easing of the sanctions) for it. If they feel comfortable enough and are presented with some more carrots they will continue on this path of reform. Secondly, if this leads to more economic development Thein Sein will have a good position during the next elections. He will have done something tangible and will have less to fear next time around. Which will result in somewhat free-er elections.

I don't think it's useful to kick and scream now and make the regime relapse. Do we want to get back to where we were two years ago? The opposition didn't exactly had a plan to get out of that, right?

I can understand the distrust, but it's time to do the right thing now.

Princess Ying of the Shan Stat Wrote:

18/10/2011

Aung San Suu Kyi said she will let the world know when sanctions against Burma should be lifted. Is this right?

Myanmar Patriots Wrote:

18/10/2011

We will deal with Norway and the rest of the world. Stuff PhD! Millions of them.Some quite moronic.

Great people do not need PhD. Laggards do. That's why I never considered doing PhD after friends suggested I might like to do PhD at Oxford.

Moe Aung Wrote:

18/10/2011

Makes you wonder if the 'naïveté' displayed by Espen Barth Eide is rather willful, bending over backwards to spearhead the process of appeasement at every opportunity, doesn't it?

The regimes does 'imply that the responsibility for more releases now falls on former prisoners, the democracy movement and the international community' as a quid pro quo. That's how they planned to play the game from the start.

When it comes to the choice between releasing political prisoners (who officially do not exist no matter what the rest of the world thinks) or real criminals, they know which ones they'd rather let out.

And of course they are pursuing peace with the minorities actively by buying off some, killing off some and 'negotiating' with the rest.

Zarganar tells it like it is from long experience.

Myo Myo Wrote:

18/10/2011

TSein and group showed several minor changes and “suspension” or temporary stop Myitsone construction for exchange of lifting sanctions. Used 10% amnesty as a basis card of old generals to show token of change that applied before. The 90% is kept for same purpose next time. It was a routine practice of the military junta to alleviate international pressure. Knowingly it was a blunder how come the Deputy Foreign Minister played such a joke against Burmese people? Instead, he should strongly demand the regime to release all the remaining p-prisoners.

For more than 50 years of brutality, mismanagement and compounded with corruption push national economy into bankruptcy. These unlawful acts can only be stopped or slowed down by sanctions (where we stand today). 10% releasing is too far from requirements push by UN and international community. The regime is well aware what to do next. Unfortunately, it doesn’t want to move voluntarily but until applying more (financial) sanctions.

Jholek Wrote:

17/10/2011

Dear Camilla Buzzi, whether you like it or not, what we see unfolding in Myanmar these months is unprecedented in the last 50 years political history of the country. And what Barth Eide is doing is encouraging more of the same. In a few months time, all internet sites have been unblocked, ASSK who's name could hardly be mentioned a year ago appear on front pages of local magazines, last week over 200 political prisoners were released, more will follow in coming months, and also last week, the president signed into law, legislation adopted by the parliament allowing the formation of free trade unions. The Norwegian minister understand how politics work. I think it is those who don't understand that who are naive.