Will Naypyidaw's Olive Branch Bear Fruit?

Two closed-door meetings between Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of Burma’s pro-democracy movement, and Aung Kyi, a Burmese government minister, which were immediately followed by Suu Kyi’s unhindered public tour of a town near Rangoon on Sunday, have generated optimism among her supporters that a rapprochement is under way between the democratic opposition and the new Burmese government.

“There is some progress between us and the government, and Daw Suu has asked the minister for a timeframe for the future meetings," said an official from Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD).

Suu Kyi and the government have kept the details of their discussions secret thus far, but sources said that the topics of the two meetings included the release of political prisoners, the armed conflicts in ethnic areas and the status of the NLD, which was officially dissolved last year for failing to register under the election laws.

As a direct result of the meetings, some of the government’s 2,000 plus political prisoners are expected to be released within weeks, according to inside party sources. It is unclear, however, whether those prisoners being released will include prominent dissidents such as former student leader Min Ko Naing.

But even if some prisoners are actually released during this period of apparent détente between the government and Suu Kyi, past periods of leniency have frequently been followed by crackdowns, such as the Depayin massacre and re-arrest of Suu Kyi in 2003.
 
So the question remains: How substantive will the government’s olive branches will be?

One clear indication will be whether the government officially acknowledges the legal existence of the NLD as a political party, with Suu Kyi as its leader. The NLD has exhausted the country's legal methods for obtaining renewed legal recognition following its dissolution by the government last year, and have even considered enlisting the help of the UN on the issue.

On Friday, Government information minister Kyaw Hsan said at a press conference in Naypyidaw that the NLD needs to register through the formal procedures.

The move will require the party to agree to a condition under the election laws that states the party will act in accordance with the 2008 Constitution, which was drafted by the previous military regime and the NLD has dismissed as undemocratic—in fact it was the primary reason the party boycotted the 2010 election.

While Suu Kyi has urged her followers to regard the current talks with cautious optimism, there is concern that the government might be using her for public relations purposes only.

Some observers point out that in the coming months, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) will make a final decision on whether to award Burma its 2014 chair, and the government may be using the meetings with Suu Kyi to persuade Asean to act in its favor.

If Burma is given the Asean chair, it will provide much-needed legitimacy for Naypyidaw's military-dominated government, which came to power through a heavily-criticized election. And because some Asean members and the association’s most influential Western partners have said the case must be decided based on Burma's political and economic reforms, the government is motivated to put on a good face at this time.

“They are using her [Suu Kyi] as much as they can, as they seek normalization of their deepening and “constitutionalized” class rule as a military-business class in terms of international relations,” said Dr. Zarni, a visiting fellow with the London School of Economics and Political Science.

“They may have figured out that her popularity is that of a pop star, as opposed to a revolutionary figure who will inspire the masses to serious and sustained revolt,” he said. “So the generals obviously have rethought and reworked their approach to containing her.”

In another apparent attempt to project a reformist image, the Burmese government has reportedly sought the help of the International Monetary Fund in modernizing its currency exchange system. And in a related event, the government information minister announced on Friday that the country will withdraw foreign exchange certificates (FECs) from the market. 

However, while talk from Naypyidaw related to certain reform topics has become louder, the armed clashes between government troops and the ethnic Kachin Independence Army (KIA) in the north show no signs of slowing.

There is also a reported division among the government’s top leadership, consisting of a reformist group led by President Thein Sein and a conservative hard-line camp led by Vice-President Tin Aung Myint Oo.