It remains to be seen, however, whether such an alliance between disparate ethnic groups can remain united and function as planned in the event of an attack by the regime.
While rebel armies in the northern region are restless in fear that they will be targeted first, Karen, Mon and Shan armies are also quietly preparing to defend their territories in the south and in Shan State.
The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), the military wing of the KNU, has been fighting the Burmese military for six decades and has never signed a cease-fire agreement with the regime. However, the Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA), which broke away from the KNLA 15 years ago, is a proxy of the Burmese military that has often clashed with the KNLA, and a substantial number of DKBA troops have reportedly agreed to join the BGF.
A Russian MI-24 helicopter (Photo: www.allbestwallpaper.com) |
In 1993-4, the regime used aircraft in an attack on KNLA Brigade 5 that caused many villagers to flee either to the jungle or the safety of Thai soil. Thai and Burmese military sources said that if fighting breaks out after the election, Burmese troops would likely once again use aircraft to attack Brigade 5 strongholds and KNLA bases on the banks of the Salween River.
There has also been increased friction between Mon rebels and the regime. In a letter to the NMSP on Aug. 23, the junta warned the Mon cease-fire group that it will be outlawed if it does not disarm, and the militia responded with a threat similar to that made by its Kachin counterparts in the north.
“If there is war in the future, we will not fight like we did in the past, and we will fight not only in the jungle. Our Mon people are everywhere, and we will take a clandestine guerrilla war to the enemy,” said Nai Hang Thar, the secretary of the NMSP. “We have traveled through the country for years now, and we now know where their important sites are.”
The Shan State Army (South) and Karenni militias have also positioned their troops for a junta offensive, but they are weaker and smaller. Their best chance to avoid being steamrollered by the regime is to hope that Thailand wants to maintain a buffer zone in the north and persuade the Thais to provide a safe haven that allows the ethnic militias to regroup and launch a counter-offensive. But these smaller groups also have voiced a willingness to fight back with unconventional warfare.
“We have formed special forces to prepare for guerrilla war when they [regime troops] come,” said Bee Htoo. “It is not good to kill each other. But, the military will still rule the country after the election.”
In addition, a Shan State Army (South) officer recently told The Irrawaddy his troops will drive the “colonialists” from Shan State. He added that the Burmese army was reinforcing its troops in southern Shan State.
With all of these potential post-election conflicts looming, Thailand and China are understandably concerned about instability along their borders with Burma.
Thailand has increased border security because it fears any ethnic conflict before or after the election could lead to an increase in refugees seeking safety in Thailand, army officers told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“We have stepped up security checks along the border to prevent any forces or people fleeing from the other side and also to prevent people and weapons crossing the border from our side,” Col. Padung Yingpaiboonsuk, a task force commander in the border province of Tak, told the AFP. He said the army would increase patrols along the border opposite Burma’s Karen State, where ethnic rebels continue to fight the government.
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