Similarities and Contrasts Between 1990 and 2010: But Will the Fundamentals Change?

Besides Aung San Suu Kyi, they may include key figures such as Min Ko Naing, Khun Htun Oo  and others if not all currently under detention.

Not all conditions are similar. Back in 1990, Burma did not have Swan Err Shin or the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA)—the two groups often accused of harassing the opposition activists.

In 2010, unlike 1990, the prospect of the USDA transforming itself into a government political party looms large. A mass organization with abundant resources and nation-wide membership, it will be a threat to opposition’s attempt to wrestle any meaningful win in the election.

And its role in violence against NLD and other opposition activists is one of the key concerns on the minds of the opposition politicians. Presumably in a similar fashion, the Swan Err Shin in its role outside the constitutional and legal framework may be used in harassing opposition candidates.

 
These possible threats or acts of violence may affect the outcome because many would-be parliamentarians may stay steer clear of direct standoff with such organizations by not contesting the elections.  

If these concerns come to be true, even if the elections turn out to be free and fair on election day as Senior Than Shwe often promises, the election results then—fundamental issue in an election—may still tip towards the SPDC or its allies.