The Eye of the Storm

The Burmese military seems equally determined to escalate the conflicts with ethnic armed militias in Karen and Shan states, where troop reinforcements and skirmishes are reported on a weekly basis.

All of these issues must be resolved if the overarching goal of “national reconciliation” is to be achieved. So despite the top-level meetings, conferences and speeches, as well as the slivers of additional media freedom, there is still a long way to go before Burma can say that meaningful change has occurred.

Some international actors, such as US Special Representative and Policy Coordinator on Burma Derek Mitchell, are informed and cautious enough to understand this. Mitchell visited Burma in September and held talks with government officials, key members of Parliament, ethnic leaders, civil society groups based inside and outside of Burma and Suu Kyi. He raised issues regarding the detention of political prisoners, the government’s hostilities toward ethnic minorities and Burma’s military link-ups with North Korea. Though Mitchell said he was encouraged and pleased with the quality of openness of the exchanges, when his meetings were completed, he urged the government to prove critics who remained doubtful about reform in Burma wrong by taking concrete steps with respect to the larger issues.

“I offered respectfully that the government should take concrete actions in a timely fashion to demonstrate its sincerity and genuine commitment to reform and national reconciliation,” Mitchell said in a statement, and this message was soon repeated by US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

Mitchell said that the possible steps included “releasing all political prisoners unconditionally, engaging in meaningful outreach to the political opposition, including Aung San Suu Kyi, and engaging in dialogue rather than armed conflict with ethnic minority groups.” He did not say directly that the US would lift sanctions if Burma made some progress—and in fact the US recently extended its sanctions—but did say, “…if the government takes genuine and concrete action, the United States will respond in kind.”

Others in the international community have been much more sanguine than the US about the prospects for reform in Burma. The Brussels-based International Crises Group (ICG) recently issued a report, “Myanmar: Major Reform Underway,” which called on the international community to support reform in Burma and the Thein Sein government.

“What is important to recognize now is that because the situation has changed both inside the country and in the region, so must the policies and tactics of those trying to use Asean as a lever to reform Myanmar [Burma],” ICG said in its 21-page report.

The report also said stated that Than Shwe no longer plays a role in day-to-day government decisions and has stopped “exercising any discernible influence over events,” except on one occasion in July when he reportedly summoned hard-liner and First Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo to his residence and told him to “stop obstructing the work of the government.”

“This has given the president the confidence and space to implement his reform agenda,” said the report, although even some reform-minded government officials have warned that Thien Sein must tread lightly or risk a backlash from the hard-line factions in both the government and military, who remain very powerful.

ICG claimed, however, that Thein Sein’s reform efforts enjoy the backing of armed forces commander-in-chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing and key government ministers, including the defense and home ministers. The report added that there had been the possibility of a major release of political prisoners in May when Thein Sein announced a one-year clemency for all prisoners, but that did not happen due to disagreements within the top leadership. It also predicted that Asean is highly likely to grant its 2014 chairmanship to Burma, concluding that denying this request by the new Burmese government would deal a blow to the reformist group led by Thein Sein and encourage “reactionary elements in the administration.”

In addition to pushing for international support for Thein Sein and his new government, some in the international community have been attempting to sideline Suu Kyi. In fact, the German ambassador to Burma, Julius Georg Luy, has for months been trying to relegate Suu Kyi to the same status as representatives of the small democratic parties that Burma’s military regime allowed to win parliamentary seats during the sham election in order to lend legitimacy to the polls.

On March 14, the European ambassadors to Burma held a closed-door meeting to discuss their positions regarding the then upcoming EU sanctions review. A well-informed source revealed that the German ambassador argued against mentioning Suu Kyi’s name in official EU communications.