Therefore, sources said that both Chit Thu and Gen Kyaw Than, the DKBA commander in chief, both of whom have substantial interests in cross-border trade, have agreed to join the BGF, and once the DKBA transforms into a member of the BGF the border will be reopened.

However, sources said that future border trade will be controlled directly by the Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry, functioning together with the Department of Border Trade, locally known as Na Sa Ka, which combines units from the army, police, customs and immigration authorities.

In addition, the DKBA is still divided on joining the BGF. One DKBA commander who has refused to join is Col Saw Lah Pwe, known as Mr. Beard, who controls part of the area near the Thai border town of Phop Phra, located north of Mae Sot.

On July 21, Saw Lah Pwe declined an offer by Lt-Gen Ye Myint, the regime's chief of Military Affairs Security, to meet and discuss the BGF plan. And according to recent reports, Saw Lah Pwe's troops, which are based near the Three Pagodas Pass and in Kyar Inn Seik Gyi and Kawkareik Townships in Karen State, have already defected to the Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA), an armed ethnic group, from whom the DKBA split in 1994, that is still actively fighting Burma's military regime.

Sources said the Burmese regime deployed 400 troops near Kyar Inn Seik Gyi Township last week, and the Thai army, concerned that refugees will flood its borders if armed conflict breaks out, has reportedly reinforced its security along the Thai-Burmese border.

On Sunday, about 700 villagers from Karen State fled to the Thai border due to fear of clashes between the Burmese army and the DKBA amid news that Saw Lah Pwe had rejected the BGF plan. However, the latest reports from Karen border sources said some of the villagers returned home on Monday morning.

Thai authorities said they did not deport the refugees, but advised them that they cannot stay in refugee camps inside Thailand unless actual fighting breaks out. Under current Thai policy, displaced Karen fleeing from conflict are permitted to stay in Thailand only temporarily. When the fighting stops, they are expected to go back to Burma.

On both the Thai and Burma side of the border, the traders and border residents are hoping that fighting does not take place at all, because armed conflict in the Mae Sot area could be yet another setback for the lucrative cross-border economy. 

The value of trade between Thailand and Burma has doubled from US $1.59 billion to $3.2 billion over the past three years, according to Win Myint, president of the Union of Myanmar Federation of Chamber of Commerce and Industry (UMFCCI), citing official data.

Win Myint said the official value of border trade in the 2008-2009 period was $327 million, and he recently told The Nation, Thailand's other leading English language daily, that Thailand is Burma's second largest cross-border trading partner.

The official data, however, excludes much of Burma's imports of heavily taxed goods, such as some vehicles sold by Burmese-Indian traders, which enter the country illegally aboard boats crossing the Moei River.

The traders have also become adept at exploiting the legal aspects of their trade, in particular a Thai Board of Investment (BOI) law known as the Alien Business Law of 1972 (ABL), which grants an exemption from import duties, export duties and business taxes on certain designated machinery, spare parts and raw materials that are imported into Thailand but not sold in the country.

The Gate 9 border compound owned by the Thai-Chinese businessman is filled with a vast inventory of assorted products such as automobiles and automobile parts, bicycles and bicycle parts, and consumer electronics and consumer electronic parts. Many of these items were imported—duty-free under the ABL—from Japan and other Asian countries to the Port of Bangkok. From there the products were transported directly to Mae Sot, and now they will be exported—duty free under the ABL—to Burma.

Speaking to The Irrawaddy, one trader motioned to a used black Mazda limited model MPV Briza that is still in good condition. “This car was sold last week for [$6,200] to a buyer from the other side of river. When the border reopens, it will be the first to cross,” he said.