Webb's Mission a Lost Cause?

US Sen. Jim Webb is back in the news again, after he abruptly called off a planned visit to Burma last week when he learned about reports that appeared to confirm that Southeast Asia's most reclusive regime was pursuing an advanced weapons program with North Korean assistance.

Soon after returning to the US from Bangkok, Webb dashed off a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton asking the State Department to clarify allegations of Burma's nuclear ambitions. He also urged the Obama administration to appoint a special envoy to Burma.

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

It is curious that Webb, who has been Washington's self-appointed point man on Burma since last year's John Yettaw fiasco, is looking to the State Department for clarification about the Burmese weapons program. One would think that he would use his vaunted access to the regime's senior leadership to get a better idea of what the generals are up to.

As for the appointment of a special envoy to Burma (something that was first proposed under the 2008 Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE Act), Webb reportedly wants Eric John, the current US ambassador to Thailand, for the job. But John declined to comment on the matter, saying that it was something for the administration to decide. A State Department official said that a choice would be made “soon,” but gave no indication of how soon.

While the weapons allegations have been a serious setback for the engagement camp, which until recently appeared to be gaining the upper hand in the debate over how to deal with the Burmese junta, it is not likely to deter Webb and others of like mind.

Indeed, with an election just around the corner (Webb figures it will take place on Oct. 10, although at this stage, it is still anybody's guess) and with Naypyidaw and Beijing taking their relationship to the “strategic” level, some in the US feel that Washington must act quickly to get its foot in the door before Burma is lost for good.

Appointing a special envoy would be a major step in that direction, although it would be a mistake to make an appointment without first working out a proper strategy that addresses more than just the issue of sanctions.

Meanwhile, Webb must do some damage control to deal with the fallout from new evidence that the regime has purchased arms from North Korea in violation of United Nations Security Council Resolution 1874.

In his letter to Clinton, Webb acknowledged that the recent revelations make engagement with the regime much more difficult: “This allegation, which from my understanding has yet to be publicly clarified and substantiated by the State Department, has frozen any prospect of further engagement with the Burmese government.”

In an apparent effort to mitigate the impact of this allegation, Webb also pointed out that, according to Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Scot Marciel, “no other nation has joined the United States in publicly denouncing Burma on this matter.”

At a congressional hearing, Marciel testified that the State Department was investigating “whether there is some kind of serious nuclear program in Burma, which certainly would be tremendously destabilizing to the entire region,” and “also the Burmese acquisition of other military equipment—conventional—which also can affect regional stability.”

Some analysts say that Webb is taking advantage of the State Department's slowness and lack of diligence in addressing these issues to forge ahead with his own agenda, which is to normalize relations with Burma, both to counter China's growing influence in the country and to pave the way for US investment.

But the junta's suspicious activities are not the only barrier to greater US engagement.