The ‘Virtuous Circle’ of Carrot & Stick Sanctions

Former British ambassador to Thailand and now chairman of the NGO Network Myanmar Derek Tonkin believes continued sanctions are “dumb”.

“Sanctions directed at the population at large have become a serious obstacle to the country's financial and economic reform programs, notably in rural development, poverty alleviation and social welfare,” he says on the Network Myanmar website this week.

“We should then have the honesty to recognize that it is the population at large which is being held to ransom by the Western pretense that their sanctions are ‘well-targeted’ when the overwhelming evidence is that almost all of them are not.”

In the same camp, Stiglitz argues: “It is clear that this moment in Myanmar’s history represents a real opportunity for permanent change. It is time for the world to move the agenda for Myanmar forward, not just by offering assistance but by removing the sanctions that have now become an impediment to the country’s transformation.”

Not so, says prominent Burmese exile Kyi May Kaung, a writer and analyst based in Washington.
 
“Countries that wish to see democracy and a free market in Burma should not lift sanctions too soon,” she wrote in an appeal for the Western world not to get carried away with what she says is the hype being generated by international media.

“Reporters love to preface their interviews by feeding the interviewee ‘Now that there is change in Burma’—in fact, there has been no meaningful structural or institutional reform. I and a few other voices are the only ones remaining skeptical, we think with reason, and our voices are all but drowned out by the sounds of the big media wheel.”

Opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi has also urged caution, warning only days ago that media freedom in Burma was still being gagged by the authorities.

Turnell, who is in touch with a wide circle of opinion inside and outside Burma, thinks there is hope for what he terms a “virtuous circle of reform” in which sanctions can continue to play a part.

“One might also expect a narrowing and more specific targeting of measures, to ensure against unintended effects and to best encourage and hasten the reforms,” he told The Irrawaddy. “At the moment the ball is with Thein Sein. April 1 marks the next serve.”