Is Shwe Mann Trying to Steal Thein Sein's Reform Mantle?

The same day that he blasted Thein Sein for dragging his feet on reforms, Shwe Mann departed for a four-day diplomatic visit to China—his third major overseas trip in his new capacity (he traveled to Russia last June and India at the end of last year) and a signal, perhaps, that he felt secure in his current position despite his repeated challenges to Thein Sein's authority.

After his return to Burma, the two leaders reportedly met privately to discuss the disagreement between them. Whatever the outcome of this meeting, however, the issue of the civil service pay rise remained on the agenda. In the first week of March, Minister of Industrial Development Maj-Gen Thein Htay said that Chinese-financed projects would not be cut back because they did not affect the national budget. He made these remarks in the context of calls by MPs to cut funding for large-scale projects so that the government could increase public sector salaries.

Beyond this signature issue, however, MPs say that Shwe Mann has also made his mark in other ways.

“To be honest, as a representative of an ethnic party, I expected him to be difficult to work with,” said  Sai Sao Si. “But after one year, we can clearly see that he is not only working in the interests of the USDP. He has shown goodwill toward all parties, and gets things done in a cool, rational manner.”

This attitude has won over most MPs, said Sai Sao Si, who claimed that most of his fellow legislators regard Shwe Man as an independent, reform-minded leader.

But while his stature within Parliament has steadily risen, some believe that Shwe Mann risks falling foul of the military, which remains the single most important force in Burmese politics. In an interview with Agence France Presse on Jan. 16, however, he said that he didn't think there was any danger of the armed forces taking control again.

“I don’t think it will happen in the future. We really understand the situation of the people and the country,” he said. “There is no other way than a democratic system.”

It seems, at any rate, that Shwe Mann has staked his own future on Burma's slow opening to the outside world. Indeed, his message of reform seems directed largely at an international audience. During his Feb. 22 press conference, for instance, he told reporters that the domestic media had been prevented from quoting his remarks in Parliament in full.

“I told [MPs] to have courage and speak out bravely, but in the news, the word ‘brave’ was removed,” he said, suggesting that Burma's highest authorities may be afraid of his calls for bold action.

But not everyone is convinced by Shwe Mann's efforts to portray himself as an outsider. Rather, he seems to be positioning himself for a prominent role in the new system, courting not only foreign governments and the international media, but also opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who he invited to visit Parliament on Monday.

Ultimately, say some observers, his pitch is directed at voters, who will go to the polls again in 2015. By that time, Thein Sein will be out of the picture and a new rivalry could emerge, pitting Shwe Mann the can-do “reformist” against Suu Kyi the charismatic standard-bearer of democracy.

Given the uphill struggle that awaits Suu Kyi when she enters Parliament and the political muscle that Shwe Mann has already acquired, it's anybody's guess who will prevail if their relationship develops into yet another struggle for control over the direction of Burmese reforms.