The ethnic armed forces could also become a force under the control of the states like the National Guards in the USA.
Q: Why do you think the government has been so slow to release political prisoners? Do you think it is holding out for some “payback” for concessions it has already made, such as the suspension of the Myitsone dam, renewed contact with Aung San Suu Kyi and the relaxation of controls on the media?
A: Although we now have a “civilian” government, its mindset is still military. The leaders think in security terms. Releasing all political prisoners could potentially lead to unrest. They are, therefore, releasing them in batches and gauging the reaction of the prisoners and the population at large. If there are no negative consequences, they will release them all. But if there is unrest, they will stop the releases.
Who would they expect a “payback” from?—the international community? I doubt they think in those terms. If they did, they would have managed the “concessions” more effectively. The political prisoner issue, though, is problematic. First, past governments have claimed that there are no political prisoners. The opposition has claimed that there are 2,000 political prisoners. It is not widely known, but the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, after verifying its figures, has revised the figure down to about 1,300 political prisoners. The government, for its part, now says it has only about 600 political prisoners, with 100 of the 600 also charged with other crimes. The question now is when we say all political prisoners must be released, what figure will we be satisfied with? 600? 1,300? or 2,000?
Q: Do you think Burma is going through a period of political transition?
A: Definitely. If we are expecting Burma to be an ideal democratic nation, it is clear that we are not yet there and may never get there depending on one’s vision of an ideal democracy. But if we compare what is happening in Burma now and what it was like even six months ago, we can definitely say that things are changing. It could still go backwards but it seems to me that the momentum is building and that it will be very difficult to go back to the old system unless there is a very big crisis and the president mishandles it. For the sake of the people of Burma, I hope that will not happen.