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Far from outsmarting the junta, it would seem that he has played into their hands. o­nce again, The Irrawaddy has done an outstanding job of providing balanced coverage of issues important to those concerned about Burma’s future.

Best Regards,
Peter Ramsey [Top]

Road Map Poison For Ceasefire Groups

November 18, 2003—"Your religion is poison" was what the Chinese communist leader Mao Zedong told the Dalai Lama when he visited Beijing. Mao insulted the Dalai Lama hoping he would respond with violence, and give him reason to send Chinese troops to take over Tibet.

Mao was using the carrot-and-stick strategy. He went to great lengths to convince the Dalai Lama and his government to agree o­n accepting Chinese sovereignty over Tibet.

Now Burmese leaders are using a similar strategy to force pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi to agree o­n a National Convention. They’ve used carrots and sticks in the past by releasing Suu Kyi from house arrest and allowing her to travel outside Rangoon to reopen offices of her National League for Democracy. She was tempted with a small degree of freedom, but the carrot was just a trap; now she’s back under house arrest.

The generals also tried to soil her image, by blaming the riots in Depayin in May o­n her and her party. When they realized she got her strength from the people, they locked her away again.

When Suu Kyi was released from house arrest last time, she was like a lion just freed from its cage. The keeper turned a blind eye and the lion was able to wander free and build up its strength. Energy from freedom gave the lion new hope, and the keeper began to worry. The lion became a threat; it was time to go back in the cage.

Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt offered more carrots in his road map to democracy announced at the end of August. At the center of the military government’s seven-point plan is the resumption of the National Convention. Since the Convention was announced, ethnic groups and pro-democracy campaigners have been unable to make any headway o­n their own plans for democracy for Burma. Thus, some people have called Khin Nyunt’s road map a road block.

It brings to mind a story about a bet between a king and his followers. The king asked his subjects to predict whether he would walk up or down while standing in the middle of ladder. But the bet was rigged. If the people said he would walk up, he would simply walk down or vice versa.

The situation is similar for ceasefire groups hedging their bets against the Burmese military today. If they attend the National Convention, they will be confronted by Khin Nyunt’s difficult questions. Khin Nyunt will try to convince ceasefire group that the military should control at least 25 percent of the seats. If they fail to agree to his terms, they will be jailed just like the NLD members who didn’t agree to take part in the National Convention in 1992. Khin Nyunt’s stick is that he can send troops into their operation areas any time he wants.

The road map will be poison for the ceasefire groups, and their fate is sealed in the same way Buddha’s was. Buddha knew that he would die if he drank the medicine that monks gave to him, but he had to drink it. The ceasefire groups know what will happen if they agree to Khin Nyunt’s demand for a quarter of seats for the military. Ceasefire groups will assume they have no choice. They will feel they have to eat Khin Nyunt’s carrot, and will be stuck in his road map trap.

Lawiweng
Prague, Czech Republic [Top]

No Apologies

October 07, 2003—Rangoon is a verdant city and it is easy to miss the shade and gradations of gray that all of the green hides. I think it is even easier to do so when looking at the city from the outside. Aung Zaw’s recent commentary, "The Junta’s Colorful Apologist" (Online, Sept 25) illustrates that particular pitfall quite well.