What Can We Learn from Egypt?

Although it took a day of bloody violence before doing so, under heavily diplomatic pressure from Egypt's strategic ally the US, the Egyptian army eventually began protecting demonstrators from attacks by thuggish Mubarak supporters—just the opposite of what the Burmese military, who gunned down protestors, did in similar circumstances. As Time magazine columnist Joe Klein noted in a recent article discussing approaches to a “smarter” US foreign policy with respect to its allies in Muslim world: Strong armies create security, a necessary precursor for democracy.

In Burma, the brutal and ultra-nationalist military leaders have tried to keep themselves isolated from foreign military connections. The one exception is their relationship with China, the Burmese regime's staunch supporter at UN meetings and its major supplier of military hardware. Because it is more concerned with its own business interests and geopolitical strategy, China has done nothing to advance the cause of democracy in Burma.

But then again, neither have Burma's other neighboring countries—India and Thailand. Instead, these two supposedly “democratic” countries have rushed into Burma and cozied up to the regime, using the convenient excuse of “the growing influence of China.” Therefore, by playing off the competing strategic and business interests of its neighbors, the Burmese generals believe they can survive—and possibly even thrive—in power by selling off their rich natural resources, especially gas.

Seeing this taking place, many Western companies who feel they are being left out of a potentially lucrative game are now finding many ways to do business with the junta in spite of economic sanctions imposed by their own governments, while at the same time applying pressure for sanctions to be removed. As Indian economist Amartya Sen recently commented, “The Americans, British, French and Germans keep lecturing Thailand, India and China for not doing the right thing. But they don't do it either. I'm accusing the West of being a hypocrite.”

Much has been made of the fact that Egypt is about to turn the corner and “transition” to a more democratic government. Currently, Burma's ruling junta is boasting that the new parliament that was recently convened for the first time will be a cornerstone of its own transition to “disciplined flourishing democracy.” But the Burmese parliament is not just controlled, but dominated by the military and its proxy political party, the Union Solidarity and Development Party, whose bloc of lawmakers is made up mostly of recently retired soldiers or junta cronies.

So the elections held in November of last year and the resulting “civilian” government that is currently being handpicked by Snr-Gen Than Shwe is neither a power-sharing exercise nor an effort to create a political “space” that will lead to much-needed public policy in Burma. As Tin Maung Maung Than, a senior fellow at Singapore's Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, wrote in a recent article:”[It is] a power distribution exercise within the ruling elite.”

However, if the Egypt transition to some form of real democracy is successful, it will be a major source of inspiration to the Burmese people. And peaceful demonstrations in the Arab streets that lead to real democratic change that was previously thought impossible can serve as an oasis in the currently barren desert of Burma's own resistance movement, as it continues its efforts to galvanize its people and break free from the increasingly oppressive and deceptive Burmese regime.