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COMMENTARY
Burma's 2011: A Look Ahead
By KYAW ZWA MOE Thursday, December 9, 2010


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The year 2010 is ending and a new year is dawning. Could next year be radically different from 2010 or previous years? The future is unpredictable, but we can predict a few things to come based on the past  year and Burma's history. 

Kyaw Zwa Moe is managing editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

January: Burma always greets the new year with a celebration of Independence Day on Jan. 4. This  year marks the 63rd anniversary, but since1962, when the military staged a coup, the people have  suffered oppression under Socialist and military governments for decades.

January is unlikely to be politically dynamic, but the ruling government will be making plans to finish its seven-step road map.

“Now, plans are underway to implement the two remaining steps [to convene a parliament and build 'a modern, developed democratic nation'] to hand over State power to the public,” junta head Snr-Gen Than Shwe said in his message to the people on the country's National Day, which fell on Dec. 1, 2010.

February: This could  be the last month for the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC),  the governing body of the ruling military regime, if the generals feel secure enough to hand over power to a new government. The 2008 Constitution says that the parliament is to be held within 90 days after the Nov. 7 election. Feb. 5 is the deadline for the country’s first parliament to convene with the newly elected candidates, which will then form a new government with the selection of a president and two vice presidents.

By the time the new government is formed, the SPDC will be terminated. Should the Burmese people  feel relieved that they are no longer under military rule? You know who won in the last election: the Union Solidarity and Development Party, the junta’s party. So, the answer is clear.

Will February mark the beginning of confrontations between the ruling junta and the opposition groups? Shortly before the military regime held the last election, several prominent ethnic leaders and politicians proposed to convene a second Panglong conference for national reconciliation. Soon after Suu Kyi was released on Nov. 13, 109 people comprised of veteran politicians and ethnic leaders gave her a mandate to lead an effort to convene the conference. It was reportedly said that the conference could be held on Feb. 12, which is the 64th anniversary of Union Day, which was the day in 1947 that independence leader Aung San, the father of Suu Kyi, and selected ethnic leaders signed the Panglong agreement to gain independence from Britain.

The conference idea is good, but unrealistic at the moment, since it would lead to a head-to-head confrontation between the government and opposition groups. If the idea is actually pursued, the regime would probably launch a brutal crackdown on the opposition and ethnic groups. If that happened, the  current number of political prisoners (more than 2,100) would soar, and Suu Kyi would again be detained. Surely, Suu Kyi and ethnic leaders will not risk such a confrontation. 

March: Burma is likely to have a new government if everything goes smoothly in convening the parliament (though there is no time frame to form a government after convening the parliament). The new government will inaugurate a new name for the country, “the Republic of the Union of Myanmar,” changing the current name “the Union of Myanmar.”

Is it really new government? We could get a sign of that on March 13, when Human Rights Day ceremonies will be held, marking the day when Phone Maw, a Rangoon engineering university student, was killed by the then Socialist regime's security forces in 1988. Human Rights Day was created by pro-democracy groups to mark Phone Maw's death and has always been illegal in Burma.

The government will come out in full force on March 27 to celebrate Tatmadaw Day (armed forces day)  The new government, though it is “civilian” in name, will celebrate the day in massive ceremonies in Naypyidaw, along with the new crop of military generals who have replaced those promoted to positions in parliament.

April: People will again celebrate the new year in water festival gatherings, while not forgetting the tragic bombings during the Rangoon water festival in 2010, when an estimated 20 people were killed and more than 100 injured.



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COMMENTS (9)
 
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Kris Wrote:
16/12/2010
I oppose changing Myanmar's official name to "the Republic of the Union of Myanmar". Why? Because, in abbreviation, the country's name will be read as RUM. Though not so superstitious, I do not like a Buddhist country's name being abbreviated to any type of alchoholic beverage.

Peter Ole Kvint Wrote:
15/12/2010
It seems completely ridiculous to talk about Burma's future without mentioning the KNU. It is the KNU who have money and weapons.

PB Publico Wrote:
14/12/2010
September:
A sad month to remember.
The monks demonstrated by way of prayers for the uplift of their alms-donors who have been taking the brunt of extreme economic hardships, very similar to 1988 scenerio.

It is the military that has no right to political power just as much as the monks are. The monks live on the support of the Buddhist population, the common people, just as much as the office workers and the soldiers do. But the difference is that it is goodwill and love by which the monks are worshipped and supported. But rarely the government officials that way, for they are paid out of taxes collected from the population.

Please do not say the poor people never pay taxes. But they do, by way of municipal and bazaar taxes at least, if not by income tax.
They are also paying taxes when they board a transport vehicle. They get nothing free. They can't "squeeze" anything out of any body's pocket.
Again this is a challenge for the military and those in the authoruty. Take care.

PB Publico Wrote:
14/12/2010
August:
A great deal to remember and remind us what did really go wrong.
The military then thought they deserved due respect and gratitude by the people. And they still do, I think.
Well the fact is that only the economically productive forces like the farmers and the workers or whoever are contributing to the economy of the nation are the real benefactors. The rest may be doing some useful, necessary works, but nevertheless, they live on the support of those productive forces and so can be termed "parasitic", however regretable the term.
So it is clear that productive forces are just as good standing as, if not greater or lesser than, any other sections of the community. If that concept is lost, then slavery comes into effect.
In a developed economy, the farmers, workers and the middle class are the real engine of a nation, both production- and consumer-wise.
This again is a challenge for the military, that to see through and accept this concept, and act accordingly or not.

PB Publico Wrote:
14/12/2010
Quote:
"July: Burma . . .
. . . more new martyrs."
We have many cultural and political traditions, perhaps most natural, most gracious and honourable ones not excluding the military before March, 1962.
All national traditions must stand to the test of time, not arbitrary abolition or rejection by some one so thoughtless and temperamental. We simply cannot justify such actions as destroying the Students Union Building or not allowing student activities to their full flowering to maturity to take upon leadership of the people in their time. Students are true sons and daughters of a nation just as much as any other sections of the community who are actually responsible to nurture their sons and daughters, but not destroy their destiny. Their destiny is synonimous with that of the nation.
The military must take this to heart,and remember this fact at all times.

Again this is a challenge for the military to choose between the wrong and the right.

PB Publico Wrote:
14/12/2010
Quote:
"Former student activists who took part in the 1988 uprising will never forget June 16 and 17, when demonstrating students were beaten by riot police and arrested. Many were injured and hundreds were thrown behind bars."

It is the duty of authorities to control mob violence, but not to the point of supressing self expression and freedom of individual or public action, so long as they do not go beyond provisions of fair and just laws, and not subject to personal temperaments and moods of any personality or personalities in high places.

This again is a challenge to the military to choose whether they use brains or brawn, and whether they stand for the protection of people's freedom, lives and properties.

PB Publico Wrote:
14/12/2010
Quote:
"May: This month will bring memories of happiness and anger. In 1990, May 27 was the historic election day in which millions of Burmese voters got a chance to choose their elected representatives: the National League for Democracy won in a landslide. But the government was never formed with elected candidates, and now the junta's Union Solidarity and Development Party, is convening a new parliament."
If the government at the time forgets this, then the military leaders must remember the injustice done to the people. It is up to them to make amends and make peace with the people.

Our people might have been angry and bitter, but for goodness sake, they can forgive.
It is again a challenge to the military: to act but choose between brains or brawn.


PB Publico Wrote:
14/12/2010
Quote:
"The conference idea is good, but unrealistic, since it would lead to a head-to-head confrontation between the government and opposition groups. If the idea is actually pursued, the regime would probably launch a brutal crackdown on the opposition and ethnic groups. If that happened, the current number of political prisoners (more than 2,100) would soar, and Suu Kyi would again be detained. Surely, Suu Kyi and ethnic leaders will not risk such a confrontation."

A reasonable analysis, based on the track record of the junta. But that record is the very reason why Daw Suu and the ethnic groups that include the majority Bamas (on equal basis) have made it clear that they don't want and seek any confrontation, while insisting on the rights of the people and the military (on equality basis) to self determination.
And that, without a bloodbath or more rights abuses.
It is up to the military to take that challenge. Take it with brains or brawn, the choice being theirs.


George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
11/12/2010
“Now, plans are underway to implement the two remaining steps [to convene a parliament and build 'a modern, developed democratic nation'] to hand over State power to the public,” BELLOWED the BULL Than Shwe.

And DAMNED those who believed the bull as well.
The monk murderer has STOLEN the 2010 elections in broad daylight no doubt.

Orders are out to nail (3 yrs in jail) any member of his whore house - parliament - whoever makes a move to change his constitution.

Where is DEMOCRACY then?

And you can forget about a modern developed country hence.

The only guys who will develop - power and wealth - are Than Shwe, his thugs and their cronies only.
There is nothing to look ahead to in 2011 other than a burgeoning prison population - politicians and activists - and increasing chaos and woes in Than Shwe ruled land.

Daw Suu even could be a CASUALTY of FREEDOM in case she doesn't WATCH OUT, Buddha forbids!
However, Than Shwe's EXIT out of this world would be BEST thing for Burma as we prayed for since day one, I say.

More Articles in This Section

bullet Sizing Up an Icon

bullet Fighting Corruption Begins at Home

bullet Future of Exiled Burmese Media

bullet How Much Freedom Does Burmese Media Enjoy?

bullet Five Days in Burma

bullet Turning Burma into Next Asian Tiger No Simple Task

bullet With Suu Kyi On Board, Is Burma Finally Moving Toward Real Change?

bullet The ‘Rule of Law’ in Burma

bullet New Doors are Opening in Burma

bullet A Good Beginning to the New Year






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