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COMMENTARY
The year 2010 is ending and a new year is dawning. Could next year be radically different from 2010 or previous years? The future is unpredictable, but we can predict a few things to come based on the past year and Burma's history.
January is unlikely to be politically dynamic, but the ruling government will be making plans to finish its seven-step road map. “Now, plans are underway to implement the two remaining steps [to convene a parliament and build 'a modern, developed democratic nation'] to hand over State power to the public,” junta head Snr-Gen Than Shwe said in his message to the people on the country's National Day, which fell on Dec. 1, 2010. February: This could be the last month for the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), the governing body of the ruling military regime, if the generals feel secure enough to hand over power to a new government. The 2008 Constitution says that the parliament is to be held within 90 days after the Nov. 7 election. Feb. 5 is the deadline for the country’s first parliament to convene with the newly elected candidates, which will then form a new government with the selection of a president and two vice presidents. By the time the new government is formed, the SPDC will be terminated. Should the Burmese people feel relieved that they are no longer under military rule? You know who won in the last election: the Union Solidarity and Development Party, the junta’s party. So, the answer is clear. Will February mark the beginning of confrontations between the ruling junta and the opposition groups? Shortly before the military regime held the last election, several prominent ethnic leaders and politicians proposed to convene a second Panglong conference for national reconciliation. Soon after Suu Kyi was released on Nov. 13, 109 people comprised of veteran politicians and ethnic leaders gave her a mandate to lead an effort to convene the conference. It was reportedly said that the conference could be held on Feb. 12, which is the 64th anniversary of Union Day, which was the day in 1947 that independence leader Aung San, the father of Suu Kyi, and selected ethnic leaders signed the Panglong agreement to gain independence from Britain. The conference idea is good, but unrealistic at the moment, since it would lead to a head-to-head confrontation between the government and opposition groups. If the idea is actually pursued, the regime would probably launch a brutal crackdown on the opposition and ethnic groups. If that happened, the current number of political prisoners (more than 2,100) would soar, and Suu Kyi would again be detained. Surely, Suu Kyi and ethnic leaders will not risk such a confrontation. March: Burma is likely to have a new government if everything goes smoothly in convening the parliament (though there is no time frame to form a government after convening the parliament). The new government will inaugurate a new name for the country, “the Republic of the Union of Myanmar,” changing the current name “the Union of Myanmar.” Is it really new government? We could get a sign of that on March 13, when Human Rights Day ceremonies will be held, marking the day when Phone Maw, a Rangoon engineering university student, was killed by the then Socialist regime's security forces in 1988. Human Rights Day was created by pro-democracy groups to mark Phone Maw's death and has always been illegal in Burma. The government will come out in full force on March 27 to celebrate Tatmadaw Day (armed forces day) The new government, though it is “civilian” in name, will celebrate the day in massive ceremonies in Naypyidaw, along with the new crop of military generals who have replaced those promoted to positions in parliament. April: People will again celebrate the new year in water festival gatherings, while not forgetting the tragic bombings during the Rangoon water festival in 2010, when an estimated 20 people were killed and more than 100 injured. COMMENTS (9)
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