The recent rejection of the Burmese regime's Border Guard Force (BGF) plan by up to a dozen armed ethnic groups exposes the cease-fire agreements as increasingly unsustainable. The grim prospect of conflict looms on Burma's horizon yet again.

According to ethnic sources, all the top-ranking leaders of the cease-fire groups and their delegations were defiant following their talks with Naypyidaw's negotiator, Lt-Gen Ye Myint, whose arrogant conduct and acrimonious remarks scuttled what little amity had previously existed at the respective negotiating tables.

Yeni is news editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

Chief of Military Affairs Security Ye Myint reportedly threatened the ethnic leaders with legal action if they failed to sign up for the BGF plan by April 22, which was interpreted to mean that they would be declared unlawful organizations by the military government.

In southern Shan State, fears of a conflict have increased since the cease-fire deadline passed last week for the largest of Burma's armed ethnic groups, the United Wa State Army (UWSA), which has upward of 20,000 troops. According to local sources, the Burmese military has deployed tanks and artillery in Mongton, Mong Saik and Tachilek townships in preparation for war. Many local villagers are making preparations to evacuate their homes and move temporarily to the Thai side of the border to avoid any bloodshed.

Meanwhile, some 400 Mon people from resettlement sites located close to a New Mon State Party (NMSP) military base have fled their homes to avoid a potential conflict between the Burmese army and the NMSP, following a breakdown in talks. They arrived a few days ago at the Hlokhani Mon refugee camp on the Thai-Burmese border. 

Last year's siege of the Kokang headquarters by the Burmese army has set an alarming precedent. Some 37,000 Kokang and Chinese refugees fled their homes and took refuge on the Chinese side of the border after government forces overran the Kokang stronghold of Laogai in August.

Similarly, between three and four thousand Karen villagers fled to Thailand when conflict broke out in Karen State between a joint force of Burmese-DKBA troops and the rebel Karen National Liberation Army.

Now, with the scent of war in the air again, many innocent civilians—who all too often get caught in the crossfire—are packing their bags in advance.

The junta’s move to transform the troops of the cease-fire groups into BGFs before the upcoming  election is believed to be in accordance with the constitutional provision that the “Union of Myanmar” have only one army. But their demands have largely been met with resistance from the ethnic groups who say they have nothing to gain from a BGF unit under Burmese regional command. Several ethnic leaders have also said that they don't have any faith in the new Constitution, which was passed through a farcical referendum in 2008.

In fact, the BGF issue must be frustrating the generals in Naypyidaw as the plan has failed to bear fruit. Instead, suspicion between the military government and the ethnic groups has increased. Moreover, in response to the crisis, Beijing, the Burmese generals' stanchest ally, has made repeated calls for stability on the border and for guarantees for the safety of Chinese people in Burma.

Frustration is undoubtedly a sentiment felt by detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and her party, the National League for Democracy. They have decided to boycott the 2010 election as a response to the regime's unjust election laws, which were drafted to prevent Suu Kyi and other political prisoners from participating in the election or even remaining as members of their respective parties.

The NLD position is based on its Shwegondaing Declaration, released in April last year, which calls for a review of the controversial constitution, political dialogue and the unconditional release of all political prisoners.

However,  instead of showing the world that they truly wish to move toward a legitimate government and gain international recognition, the military regime, led by Snr-Gen Than Shwe, has firmly responded that there will be no review of the Constitution, and that this year's election will go ahead with or without the opposition.

Faced with being disbanded after the election deadline on May 6, and fearing that their offices will be raided and their leaders arrested, the NLD and its political allies are preparing for the worst.