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COMMENTARY
To Be, or Not to Be?
By KYAW ZWA MOE Friday, March 12, 2010

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All is farce when it comes to Burma’s newly released election laws. However, it wasn't  unexpected. If the laws had been even a little fair, it would have been like a fantasy dream come true.

The question now is how the opposition groups, especially the National League for Democracy (NLD), will proceed within the framework of the laws.

Detained Aung San Suu Kyi and more than 2,000 political prisoners are barred from all election rights: from contesting in the election to being a member or leader of a political party to casting a vote. “Unjust” and “repressive” are the words Suu Kyi used to describe the laws in a meeting with her lawyers on Thursday.

Ironically, junta authorities have given a green light to the reopening of the offices of Suu Kyi's NLD. But don’t be fooled by that: the junta wants the NLD to contest the elections, but not under Suu Kyi's leadership.

The party registration law has put additional pressure on the NLD and other parties, which have 60 days to register with the Election Commission. If it registers, the party will have to expel its leader, Suu Kyi, in accordance with the law, or risk dissolution. One of the main ethnic parties, the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, also will have to expel its leader, Hkun Htun Oo, who is serving a lengthy prison sentence. 

If political parties choose not to contest the election, they will be dissolved under the law, which requires parties to contest in at least three constituencies. The NLD has no choice but to conform to the law, if it wants to remain a viable opposition in which its leaders' voices can be heard. Also, without the party as base of operation, individual leaders will be even more vulnerable to harassment, intimidation and arrests.

Practically speaking, the more political parties that contest in the election, the more legitimacy the junta gains. The generals are also better prepared in this election, trying to do everything possible to ensure the NLD doesn't pull an upset like it did in the 1990 election, where it swept to victory in a landslide.

The 17 members of the Election Commission, which is chaired by former army general Thein Soe, were handpicked by the junta. The huge junta-backed civic group, the Union Solidarity and Development Association, is in the process of forming a spin-off political party or parties to take part in the election. Expect them to play dirty and do everything they can to ensure victory for their candidates.

The NLD and other main opposition parties are in a box with no way out. If they contest, they will lose; if they don't contest, they will vanish from the scene. And now they have less than 60 days to make a decision.

As for outside pressure or new strategies, it seems all efforts are floundering. The US's new pro-engagement policy has not convinced the junta to make even the smallest concession or compromise.

“The US approach was to try to encourage domestic dialogue between the key stakeholders, and the recent promulgation of the election criteria doesn't leave much room for such a dialogue,” US Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said in Bangkok on Friday.

“We're very disappointed, and we are concerned. It's very regrettable. This is not what we had hoped for, and it is a setback,” said Campbell, who met with high-ranking generals last year.

As the election looms closer, more pressure and demands will be made on the junta, including the release of Suu Kyi. But they won't have any impact.

The regime is determined to continue down its infamous road map. So, what next?

In responding to the unfair election laws, Suu Kyi said, “The people and political forces have to respond united to such an unjust law.” Is that her signal that the NLD and other parties should not contest in the election?

The NLD and other parties are facing the classic Shakespearean question: to be, or not to be?

For the NLD, whatever it decides to do, it has nothing to win. For the junta, it looks like it has nothing to lose.


Kyaw Zwa Moe is managing editor of The Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].



COMMENTS (17)
 
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plan B Wrote:
23/03/2010
Ko Moe Aung
I am the "low life Burmese living in the West" for the following reasons/Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF:
1)The ridiculous Shwe Bo Min xxx character as representing future SGTS.
2) Diametrically opposed to the West useless careless Banana Republic policy that hurts the citizenry more.
3) That the focus of every act by everyone any time should be on behalf of the most vulnerable instead of on the rise and fall of SPDC.
4) Living in the West periodically and yet not ignorant of history as most bleeding heart westerners are, that effect this present no win situation.
5) My command of "HRM English" language is often wanting.
I hope this clear things up.

Tin Htun NLD USA Wrote:
22/03/2010
The world and the NLD know that the election law is unfair and this is a dirty game to divide the NLD. So please unite Democracy forces and do not contest the 2010 Election.

Moe Aung Wrote:
19/03/2010
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF

Listen to yourself! Anything but rational.

'"we, including SPDC, are finding it hard to elect 'proper' representatives of the people." WHAT IS THIS NONSENSE? Not part of our message.'

Look at your rant on 17/03/2010. Losing your marbles?

Do elaborate on 'low life Burmese living in the West', 'these insignificant people, with delusion of grandeur'. Have you looked at yourself in the mirror lately? Speak for yourself, eh?

Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
19/03/2010
"we, including SPDC, are finding it hard to elect 'proper' representatives of the people." WHAT IS THIS NONSENSE? Not part of our message.
We are Masters of SPDC, we are the people.
"IGNORANCE OF nature of politics is a greater problem than SPDC." THAT IS A FUNDAMENTAL TRUTH! To misconstue and to attack us is to admit lowliness on the part of the attacker. Truly learned people debate rationally, giving evidence where appropriate; they don't make personal attacks; neither do they say: "what have you been smoking, what have you been drinking etc", a classic appropach of low life Burmese living in the West.
We feel sorry for them, these insignificant people, with delusion of grandeur. Never mind, we are very tolerant and we always forgive them; after all we are Buddhist.
With myitta/metta to Moe Aung, the loser. Try a bit of humility, you will begin to see things clearly

Moe Aung Wrote:
18/03/2010
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF

"we, including SPDC, are finding it hard to elect 'proper' representatives of the people."

Articulated like a feudal slave ever so loyal to your masters.

"IGNORANCE OF nature of politics is a greater problem than SPDC."

(IGNORANCE + arrogance)selfseeking = SPDC + Stooges R Us

The epithet Myanmar Idiot is well deserved.

Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
17/03/2010
SPDC is legal! A country is made up of its SOCIETY & STATE, whether or not the agent of the state is elected. So long as a government defends the state (meaning sovereignty) and society, it is legitimate! Existence of the state is caused by human nature. Read Leviathan by Thomas Hobbes. The state is an abstract FORCE that has the ultimate power on society without referring to anyone else. Who holds the handle of this abstract force? King, despot, dictator, junta, elected representatives. The last is ideal but because of history and external interferences and manipulation by alien media, we, including SPDC, are finding it hard to elect 'proper' representatives of the people.

IGNORANCE OF nature of politics is a greater problem than SPDC.

And it is never Depayin! It always has been Tabayin,about 10 miles south of Ye-U, where our king's family owned lands and houses, all seized by Shu Maung [Ne Win]. In Burmese,'t' is pronounced 'd';'p' as 'b'.

A.M.O Wrote:
16/03/2010
Well, electoral laws are drawn up by the "illegitimate" de facto government, the SPDC, not by popularly elected MPs of the 1990 election; hence these laws are "illegitimate" and they could have no legal effects on declaring the 1990 election as null and void.

Strategy for the NLD could be charted to bring these issues to the UN/ICC along with charges on SPDC (Than Shwe) of crimes against humanity immediately (within 60 days)with a thousand evidences (ie Depayin, 2007 crisis, Nargis).

As Obama's Nobel Prize speech reflected, there is no such thing as a "Peaceful Movement" to overcome a tyrant like Hitler; and this same speech applies to tyrant Than Shwe (the mastermind behind Depayin to assasinate ASSK).

Of course, the NLD has got to have guts - an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth; people don't just watch when somebody's out to kill you.

ASSK could put Than Shwe in the dock for plotting against her life (NB:Than Shwe admitted personally to MI Kyaw Win that he is the mastermind); these are the hard facts for the NLD.

Moe Aung Wrote:
15/03/2010
"If they contest, they will lose; if they don't contest, they will vanish from the scene."

Not so black and white as the picture painted above. People are still likely to vote the regime and its proxies with their feet, favoring whoever stands against them, provided the polling is free and fair. Aung Thaung reportedly is not getting the expected results from a couple of dummy runs.

If outlawed for boycotting the elections, the NLD may yet go underground and fight another day instead of vanishing. It's make or break time nonetheless for the leadership.

Ehi-passika Wrote:
14/03/2010
I agree what Adam Selene suggests for NLD.I doubt the junta can successfully make the election without participation of the NLD. The generals assure themselves that the NLD must compete the showdown. But what would the consequences of the Burma's politics when the NLD neglects the rules and regulations of the junta's commission law? This is what the generals never hope for so.

Kyaik-ka-san Wrote:
13/03/2010
The junta is applying the wrong strategy to sideline the Opposition camps. The junta has not learned from many failed lessons, deploying the same old stock, “division” among camp members.
Observation showed that in only a few days, except China’s devalued “internal affair,” the entire world is against their wish.
The thnic minority says “NO” to SPDC openly. NLD and remaining forces will say “NO” also. Let’s tally pros and cons (few examples).

DASSK/People force,
• Movements proceed with or without party
• All walks of life will be involved in the movement
• Bring solid unity to camps
• Nationwide support for DASSK
• Her leadership becomes significant, at home and internationally.

Than Shwe/cronies,
• Election legitimacy at risk without opposition
• Followed by war crime investigation, actions on child soldiers, forced labor, rape, torturing and involvement in drug trafficking
• Financial sanctions added
• More isolation
• Shaky control

The political will of the NLD is an important factor to achieve the final goal.

timothy Wrote:
13/03/2010
My advice is for the NLD and ethnic parties to register for the election without firing their beloved leaders.
What else can Than Shwe do? He can send 10,000 more party members to prison for not playing according to his dictation. Let him imprison 10,000 more patriots. The ball will be in Than Shwe`s court to answer to the civilised world`s call for legitimacy. Than Shwe, what can you say about it?

Ko Chin Wrote:
13/03/2010
To be, or not to be; well, either way, the NLD is dead.

Tom Tun Wrote:
13/03/2010
Most of the Burmese people and critics just look into the situation at this moment. I don't see too many people with cool head and who think for the future.
I dare to ask a question to anyone which is "will the regime disappear after the election?" It is wishful thinking.
I can guarantee thatthe Burmese military will try to get full control back within a few years. So what is the point losing the good image of a party and trust of the people upon the regime chess game?
We already know that the UN, UNSC or ICC and even some powerful countries are not willingly trying to change Burma.
Why are we out of wit every time the regime tries to play us? It is time to think from outside of the circle. Do not doubt that the time will come for a good time.
I personally favour not to participate in this farce game. If you participate, you are acknowledging the legitimacy of this stupid power game, not the election.

Kyaw Wrote:
13/03/2010
Interesting game. Wait and see.
The regime is tying its neck by releasing its Election Law. The election will be the fall of the gallows chair.

plan B Wrote:
13/03/2010
The obsession with the participation of the NLD at the expense of other parties is the West's sin.
The NLD at it height of popularity has been the nidus for all other groups that desire the end of the BSPP, thus effecting the landslide win.
Ever since then it has degenerated into a mostly self-serving foreign funded entity with no plan but waiting to see the SPDC disintegrating under the West's proven useless, careless policy.
The NLD's only claim now to significance is DASSK, an eternal western democratic idol.
The possibility of her once again uniting the various groups is as remote as can be; all she can do is continue to insist on the Shwegondaing declaration.
The SPDC indeed would like to see NLD participation. Least of the reasons at this point is to change the West's attitude of "not good enough and show us more."
Reclaiming significance for the NLD will entail necessity to be insider first before effecting any changes.
Otherwise it will be continually regarded as an entity of the West. A proven SPDC advantage well proven.

George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
12/03/2010
It looks like the NLD has nothing to WIN and Than Shwe has none to LOSE.
Today the party is cornered with its back against the wall, no doubt.
However, U Win Tin said: “I will try to dismantle the military dictatorship until my final breath, with all my remaining strength and power”.
He has also cited - overcome fear, unity and single aim - as weapons for victory over military tyrants.
And "Daw Suu wants to urge everyone, whether NLD members, non-members or ethnic people, to take concerted action against these unjust laws,” U Nyan Win said. “She also said all the people should speak up for their own rights with understanding of the laws,” according to U Nyan Win.
Thus, the NLD has signaled to stand its ground and hold the fort.
There are 50 million-plus people and many in Than Shwe's rank and file are behind Daw Suu and her NLD.
This is where the buck stops and HISTORY BEGINS.
Daw Suu, U Win Tin and U Tin Oo will go down fighting rather than bow to Than Shwe.
LET HISTORY BE JUDGE AND JURY.

Adam Selene Wrote:
12/03/2010
The junta indeed wants the NLD to compete, but without Aung San Suu Kyi. The best the NLD can do under these difficult circumstances is register for the election without expelling Aung San Suu Kyi. In that case they would've shown their willingness to compete. If the SPDC outlaws the NLD then, the generals will be at fault and the elections will lose the last bit of legitimacy. If the NLD does not compete all their efforts will be for nothing.

The other scenario is that if the NLD registers with ASSK on board the government will allow it, because they don't have another option if they want the elections to be believeable.

But it will take some courage to register and stand up against the generals and keep ASSK on board. The next couple of weeks will learn if the leaders of the NLD are up to it.

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