Detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi holds the key to whether her National League for Democracy (NLD) decides to contest in the upcoming election.

Which way the key turns: To participate or to stand down will affect the country's political future.

No one else—from Tin Oo, the recently released deputy NLD  leader, to outspoken Win Tin to other  executive leaders of the party—holds that key.

This weekend, when Tin Oo, 82, the respected former commander-in-chief, was released from a 7-year sentence under house arrest, some observers speculated that he would quickly make significant decisions on important party matters—but that was not the case. 

Soon after his release, Tin Oo repeated Suu Kyi's call for dialogue with the generals. He marched in perfect step, a loyal supporter following his commander's decision.

The deputy leader, according to party spokesperson Khin Maung Swe, follows Suu Kyi's political map:  he supports the party's Shwegoandaing declaration, which calls for a review of the regime's controversial Constitution, political dialogue and the unconditional release of all political prisoners. 

The key to the crucial issue—to contest the election, or not—is firmly in Suu Kyi's hands.
 
Could the history of the 1990 election repeat itself?

At that time, there was intense debate among political parities on whether they should contest in the junta-organized election. The NLD itself was divided. Some said contest, others said sit tight. 

Then Suu Kyi's decision to take part broke the gridlock. On Dec. 22, 1989, she officially declared in a letter that she  accepted the party's nomination to be a candidate in Rangoon's Bahan Township. The very short letter stopped the simmering debate and the NLD and many other parties took part in the 1990 elections, which the NLD captured in a surprising landslide victory.     

Events today are surprisingly similar. Within the NLD, according to knowledgeable sources, a wing of  senior party members—maybe not a big camp—see no alternative but to take part in the election. Others feel that they must stand on principles and refuse to take part in what they see as a rigged election that will give legitimacy to an un-democratic Constitution.

In reality, probably all NLD supporters are just waiting for Suu Kyi to give them their marching orders, including other political parities and ethnic groups.

Pu Cin Sian Thang, an ethnic leader of the Zomi National Congress based in Rangoon, recently told The Irrawaddy that his party's decision will be based on how the NLD responds because the NLD represents the majority of the people.

Pressure to take part in the election is coming from all sides. International community repeatedly stresses the need for an inclusive, free and fair election. In some circles, inclusive is a code word for an election in which all political parties participate, including the NLD.

The election clock is ticking. Suu Kyi told her lawyer in early February, “This is not the time to make the decision.”

She has strong reasons: The election law has yet to be issued, dates for party registration have yet to be announced and there is no election timetable. 
 
There are reports that junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe will announce the election law and timetable by the end of February. If true, Suu Kyi has little time to turn her key, regardless of whether she is free or under house arrest at the time of the election. 

Back in 1990, Suu Kyi surely wouldn't have believed the election would be free and fair. But she made a  decision to take part in the election.

The political landscape is not the same in 2010, but, again, the key to participating or standing down is in her hands. This time her decision will be more difficult.

Kyaw Zwa Moe is managing editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].