According to sources close to the generals, Than Shwe’s reaction to Suu Kyi’s overtures has been “so far, so good.” But this could suddenly change, and the current situation could deteriorate rapidly, depending on the mood of the man who holds absolute power over Burma.
Knowing this, Suu Kyi has proceeded carefully. But as the leader of Burma’s pro-democracy forces, sooner or later she will have to raise sensitive issues like the election and the Constitution.
For its part, the Obama administration has also moved forward cautiously in its talks with the regime. It said it would not push for a review of the Constitution, saying that this should be discussed as part of a “national dialogue.”
Although Than Shwe appears to have relaxed his guard somewhat, it is important not to underestimate his capacity for manipulation.
It seems fairly obvious what he wants—the removal of sanctions and acceptance of the outcome of next year’s election by the international community. But so far he has offered nothing of substance in return.
This suggests that his goals may not be as ambitious as they seem. Perhaps he is merely trying to reduce the pressure on his regime to tolerable levels so he can extend his hold on power a little longer. In other words, he may just be up to his old tricks, in which case, we can expect to see Suu Kyi remain under house arrest until after the election.
On the other hand, if he is genuinely interested in ensuring a safe exit for himself, he may take the risk of releasing Suu Kyi, although only after he has sufficient guarantees from her that she will not do anything to undermine his election plans. Indeed, if he really does want the election to be regarded as anything other than a sham, he will have no choice but to free Suu Kyi.
In any case, the situation is very delicate. Three key actors—Than Shwe, Suu Kyi and the US—realize this, and have played their hands very carefully. But at some point, someone will have to make a more daring move, and when this happens, it could be a game changer, or it could just force the situation back to square one.
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