A two-day “fact-finding” mission to Burma led by US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell wrapped up yesterday after meetings with junta officials including Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi and ethnic leaders.

Describing his visit as an “exploratory mission,” Campbell told reporters shortly before leaving the country that he had a chance to explain to Burmese officials the aims of the new US policy of “direct engagement,” which are “strong support for human rights, the release of Aung San Suu Kyi and all other political prisoners and the promotion of democratic reform.”

Campbell and his deputy, Scot Marciel, are the highest-ranking American officials to visit Burma since 1995, when former US Congressman Bill Richardson and then US Ambassador to the UN Madeleine Albright traveled to the country in a bid to push for democratic reforms.

During his trip to Burma, Richardson met with Suu Kyi at her lakeside home, where she had been detained since 1989, bringing with him a letter from President Bill Clinton. He also held talks with intelligence chief Lt-Gen Khin Nyunt, who was also Secretary 1 of the State Law and Order Restoration Council (Slorc), as the junta then called itself.

At a press conference in Bangkok after his visit, Richardson concluded that these two people—Suu Kyi and Khin Nyunt—would decide the future of Burma. Ironically, both are now confined to their own homes as prisoners of the ruling generals.

Albright also made a number of strong statements following her trip to Burma. Regarding her meeting with Suu Kyi, she said, “I have never been as impressed with another human being.” But she was less complimentary about the Slorc, calling it “an ugly acronym for an ugly government.”

This time, the new Democratic administration in Washington is taking greater care not to unnecessarily offend the Burmese generals. But at the same time, it is heeding Suu Kyi’s calls to engage not only the regime, but also the opposition and ethnic groups, as well as other individuals and groups inside and outside the country.

For Burmese who have long doubted the effectiveness of past US grandstanding, this is a welcome change. But it still remains to be seen if it will yield any substantive results.

The signs so far are not encouraging. Less than a week before Campbell arrived in Burma, the junta arrested 41 people, including journalists, political activists and students, in a security crackdown in Rangoon. Some of them are members of “Lin Lat Kyei,” a group that is involved in relief efforts for survivors of last year’s Cyclone Nargis, which killed nearly 140,000 people. No explanation has been given for their arrest, and there has been no word on where they are being held.
 
Usually on such occasions, the US State Department would release a press statement expressing concern about these unlawful arrests. This time, however, the White House chose to remain silent, perhaps hoping to pave the way for a successful Campbell visit. If so, it is sending a confusing signal, suggesting that the new US approach lacks a sense of urgency—an impression that was reinforced when Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Marciel responded to a question about the arrests by saying, “We are prepared for setbacks.”

Since a visit to Naypyidaw in August by Sen. Jim Webb—whose main concern is China’s growing influence in Asia—the Obama administration has hurriedly backed away from the policies of former President Bush, who favored isolating the Burmese regime. At the same time, however, it has indicated that it would not lift sanctions before the regime has demonstrated a willingness to make meaningful concessions.
 
At this stage, however, it is clear that the regime is merely adjusting its strategy for holding onto power, playing along with the new US approach in the hope that it will help to offset China’s growing influence, which has been key to the junta’s survival for the past 20 years.

Sadly, while Washington fine tunes its approach to Burma and Naypyidaw figures out how best to use the new diplomatic situation to its own advantage, a number of depressing facts remain unchanged: Suu Kyi is still under detention; some 2,100 political prisoners still languish in their dark cells; ethnic refugees continue to wait for the day when they can return to their homes; and clouds of fear still gather over every citizen of Burma.