In recent weeks, the stagnant political scene in Burma has taken on a new life, shaking off the usual descriptions of “stalemate,” “deadlock” and “standoff.”

Sept. 28: The US assistance secretary for East Asia, Kurt Campbell, announced the new US Burma policy, initiating a “direct dialogue” with the non-dialogue-savvy military leaders of one of the world’s most self-isolating nations.

Sept. 29: Campbell meets with Burmese Minister of Science and Technology U Thaung, who is one of junta chief Than Shwe’s closest confidants, in New York, the first US-Burma high-level meeting in more than 10 years.

Oct. 3: Detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi meets with the junta’s relation minister, Aung Kyi, for 45 minutes, the first time in nearly two years.

Oct. 7: Suu Kyi meets the minister again for 26 minutes. Both meetings focused on Suu Kyi’s offer to Than Shwe to gather information about economic sanctions imposed on Burma. 

Oct. 9: Suu Kyi meets with three diplomats from the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia to discuss Western sanctions.
 
Oct. 14: Twenty diplomats from the European Union meet senior NLD members to learn their views on the 2010 election, Suu Kyi’s collaboration with the junta on sanctions and why the NLD wants a review on the 2008 Constitution.

It was a flurry of political activity—unmatched in recent years—which could portend significant changes to come.
     
In spite of the pro and con debate over the effectiveness of economic sanctions, it was sanctions that brought the stubborn generals to the present state of affairs.

“For the first time in memory, the Burmese leadership has shown an interest in engaging with the United States,” Campbell said. The change in the US administration and the willingness of the US to enter into quid-pro-quo negotiations to lift its sanctions clearly captured the junta’s attention.

Seriously, the junta wants the sanctions lifted. Addressing the UN General Assembly session, Burmese Prime Minister Thein Sein said, “Sanctions are being employed as a political tool against Myanmar [Burma], and we consider them unjust. Such acts must be stopped.” 

Suu Kyi sent Than Shwe a personal letter on Sept. 25 focusing on sanctions. In the letter, she volunteered to cooperate with the government to achieve an end to sanctions by Western countries. Than Shwe quickly responded and initiated the recent series of contacts.

Of course, there’s a lot of hard work ahead for the junta, Suu Kyi and the NLD, and no one can predict the outcome.

The US is clearly not in a hurry to lift its sanctions, and it expects the junta to make the first moves, which will involve the release of all political prisoners, ensuring the 2010 election is free and fair, an end to conflicts with ethnic minorities, and a range of other issues.

“Lifting sanctions now would send the wrong signal,” Campbell said when he announced the new policy last month. “We will tell the Burmese that we will discuss easing sanctions only if they take actions on our core concerns. We will reserve the option to apply additional targeted sanctions, if warranted, by events inside Burma.”

On the upcoming election, Campbell said, “We are skeptical that the elections will be either free or fair, but we will stress to the Burmese the conditions that we consider necessary for a credible electoral process.”

That US’s hard-line stand is important though it introduced the new policy. Than Shwe recently reiterated his hard-line stand as well.   

“The new state Constitution has been approved by the great majority,” Than Shwe said in an address to a war veterans’ organization on Oct. 9. “Elections will be systematically held in 2010 in accord with the Constitution.”

In his speech, Than Shwe said that powerful countries are seeking ways to pressure Burma under various pretexts.

“However, the Tatmadaw [armed forces] government doesn’t get frightened when it’s intimidated and will continue to work relentlessly for a better future for the State and the people by overcoming any difficulties,” he said.

At least for now, the US engagement policy seems to have created a new political environment. But it is doubtful that any engagement with the junta will produce positive results for the country.