Public interest in the latest visits of two UN special envoys to Burma, intended to help fix the country’s miserable political landscape and its disgraceful human rights record, is at its lowest level in decades.  

Nigerian diplomat Ibrahim Gambari, the UN special envoy to Burma, arrived in
Rangoon on Monday. It’s his sixth trip to try to help build national reconciliation between the military rulers and opposition groups.

In early August, newly appointed UN Human Rights Special Rapporteur Tomas Ojea Quintana ended his first visit to take on human rights issues.

In the past, people inside Burma and the international diplomatic community have had their hopes raised with each visit by a UN envoy. Tiny tea leaves are routinely sifted for meaningful signs of change.

During the two latest trips, however, the feeling has been, “Ho, hum, it’s more business as usual”—which translate to zero progress.

So far, Gambari met with the foreign minister and information minister on Tuesday and visited Kungyangone Township, one of many which were severely affected by Cyclone Nargis in May.

Gambari’s goal this trip revolves around whether he can make progress in facilitating a meaningful dialogue between the junta’s leaders and detained democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and whether he can nudge the generals to enter into talks with members of the National League for Democracy, which Suu Kyi heads.

So far, Suu Kyi’s has had five meetings with the junta’s liaison officer, Minister Aung Kyi, from October to January. There is a growing sense that the meetings are part of the regime’s typical stalling tactics.

Gambari was scheduled to meet with Suu Kyi on Wednesday, but the meeting didn’t occur, according to an NLD spokesperson in Rangoon. The envoy did meet with other NLD leaders in a government guesthouse. On this basis alone his trip might be deemed a success. Such are the low expectations involving the UN’s efforts.

The regime’s steadfast adherence to its seven-step roadmap to “democracy” has proved to be a formidable obstacle to the goal of “reconciliation.” UN suggestions are countered by the regime’s assertion that the roadmap is on course. The fourth step—approving a constitution that was drawn up by its handpicked delegates—was completed in May.

The fifth step, the general elections scheduled for 2010, is moving along, with the junta’s civic organization, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA), preparing to form a National Prosperity Party. The USDA is notorious for its thuggish attacks on Suu Kyi supporters and pro-democracy activists.

Other pro-regime organizations expected to emerge as political groups include the Wuntharnu (patriotic) National League for Democracy, formed by a few former members of Suu Kyi’s NLD and the 88 Generation Student Youths (Union of Myanmar).

The National Unity Party, a transformation of the Burma Socialist Programme Party which ruled the country for 26 years until 1988, is also among the pro-junta political parties. The junta’s strategy is to complete national elections in 2010 and form a “civilian” government of its supporters under the framework of a “disciplined democracy.”

At this late stage, the diplomatic suggestions by Gambari will not move the generals from their course. Similar efforts for the past 20 years have all failed. Since the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, eight UN envoys have made more than 30 diplomatic visits to Burma to discuss the same basic issues.

It’s not surprising that the visits by the latest two UN envoys have aroused little interest or expectation, knowing they have no new strategy to coax the generals to do the right thing.