The first wave of frustration following Cyclone Nargis was the irrational, foot-dragging and draconian aid restrictions imposed by the Burmese junta on the international relief effort to help the survivors. The second wave of frustration is the ineffective, timid approach of Asean and the UN to try to coax the stubborn generals into effective action. 

The junta has no redeeming qualities: It’s bad at government, economics, social welfare, education—you name it. Of course, there are some people who flatter the generals, and they are called sycophants and apologists. 

All members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and the UN are not sycophants and apologists, but history shows that they bear responsibility for protecting the ruthless and undemocratic regime.    

After the current junta staged a bloody coup in 1988, UN envoys to Burma under different missions made more than three dozen trips to Burma in attempts to help solve the country’s decades-long political deadlock.

Frequently, the UN announcements talked about “turning a new page,” or “things are moving” or “breakthroughs.” Their words didn’t reflect reality and, in a way, protected the generals.

Now comes UN General-Secretary Ban Ki-moon who arrived in Rangoon on Thursday to try to convince the generals to let more international aid and relief workers into the country. For the past three weeks, the regime has allowed only very limited international aid to reach the needy and banned all external foreign relief workers, save for a few dozen Asian medical staff.
 
Ban has expressed his personnel frustration with the junta’s restrictions. On the other hand, the Burmese people are frustrated with the history of UN missions for the past 20 years.

It’s now three weeks after the cyclone, and the UN chief is just now arriving in the country to talk to the generals. The cyclone victims want relief supplies. They don’t want to hear more positive-sounding or appeasing words like those in the past. They don’t need crocodile tears.

And, how about Asean, of which Burma is a member? Its emergency meeting in Singapore came two weeks after the cyclone. Asean has never had the courage to confront the generals. Since 1997 when Burma became a member, Asean has never dared to ruffle the generals’ feathers.

At the Asean foreign ministers meeting on Monday, they agreed to set up a task force, headed by Asean Secretary-General Surin Pitsuwan, which will closely work with the UN as well as the junta. The statement said “this Asean-led approach was the best way forward,” and the issue should not be politicized.

In its statement, Asean said Burma “should allow more international relief workers into the stricken areas, as the need is most urgent, given the unprecedented scale of the humanitarian disaster.” Positive-sounding words.
 
But, the facts are clear. This “best way forward” is another example of appeasing the cynical, hard-hearted generals. Even if Asean had a real intention to take charge and deal with the disaster, the grouping has no capacity to handle such a natural disaster.

Sadly and shamefully, both Asean and the UN have agreed to let the generals’ determine the rules so far. If they really want to help the survivors, they must show the courage to initiate a new approach.   

If Ban can’t get real concessions during this trip, there is no approach ahead other than the UN’s “responsibility to protect” concept which, while not exactly written for events such as natural disasters, would nevertheless be justified. The junta is clearly committing a crime against humanity, which this concept is meant to address.

In fact, relief supplies and relief workers are not far from Burma. Five naval ships of the US, France and UK with humanitarian supplies have been waiting off Burma’s coast for a green light to help the victims. An article in the junta-run New Light of Myanmar on Wednesday said aid from those countries was unacceptable to the people of Burma.

We have entered what could be the final wave of frustration. The US, France and the UK are clearly waiting to see what the UN and Asean can accomplish. This is the last act.

The most frustrating outcome would be if the UN and Asean fail to find an effective way to aid the people, and Western countries that have voiced the strongest criticism of the junta fail to act unilaterally to aid the survivors.

For years to come there will be enough blame and guilt to go around for all concerned.