As Burma prepares for the May 10 constitutional referendum, pressure increases inexorably on the country’s electorate, to vote either “Yes” or “No.” Many observers are expecting the military regime to claim victory, against all the odds. So how will they have achieved that result?

In military-ruled Burma, orders come from the top and must be obeyed. Commander in chief Gen Than Shwe has instructed his subjects to vote in favor of the regime’s draft constitution. Few who owe their livelihoods to the junta will dare ignore the order, which is being accompanied by intimidation and threats.

There are widespread fears among government ministers, military commanders and officials of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) that they will be fired if the draft constitution is defeated in their respective areas.

Civil servants, members of the armed forces, the business community, professional people and ordinary workers and their families are being made to vote in advance under the watchful eyes of the authorities and state officials. Burmese civil servants have told The Irrawaddy that they fear dismissal if they fail to vote in favor of the draft constitution.

Several government officials, speaking on condition of anonymity, told The Irrawaddy that the regime is making civil servants, university lecturers, school teachers and workers in state enterprises vote in advance in the presence of senior military officers. Some are claiming that the authorities are distributing ballot papers that have already been filled in with a tick, indicating approval of the constitution.

Yet, the regime's ruthless "Yes" campaign threatens to backfire.

"I don't trust this government, so I will not vote," is the reaction of many people contacted by The Irrawaddy in a telephone survey. It’s a reaction clearly shared by Burmese living overseas, many of whom rejected the opportunity of voting in advance at their country’s embassies. Voters were far outnumbered by protesters who staged demonstrations in front of the embassies.

A low turnout could spell defeat for the efforts of referendum organizers, who are counting on a turnout of more than 50 per cent of eligible voters in order to claim success for what they are claiming is a demonstration of democracy in action.

This aim accounts for the urgency with which the regime is pushing its “Vote Yes” campaign in the press and on the streets. It has the support of the pro-junta USDA and local authorities, whose members and officials, wearing T-shirts with pro-constitution slogans, are distributing pamphlets across the country, urging people to vote in favor of the draft.

Even military commanders and state officials have joined the government-sponsored campaign to persuade—or force—people to cast favorable votes.

Dr Tint Swe, a successful candidate in the 1990 general election who now lives in New Delhi, India, produced the following scenarios to show how the referendum result could appear:

Scenario 1:

Votes in favor = 26
Votes against = 25
Absentees = 49
Total turn-out = 51

In this case, says Tin Swe, although it can be assumed that all the 49 absentees are believed to be against the constitution and the referendum the constitution is approved by just one vote.

Scenario 2:

Votes in favor = 26
Votes against = 26
Absentees = 48
Total turn-out = 52

Deadlock results, but by canceling one “No” vote the draft constitution can be approved.

Scenario 3:

Votes in favor = 20
Votes against = 31

By deliberately canceling 12 of the “No” votes, the authorities can create a majority of one vote in favor of the draft.

In the absence of independent observers, the opportunities for the authorities to manipulate the vote are limitless. Few believe the referendum will be free and fair. It will be no surprise, therefore, if the regime announces victory for its draft constitution.

In New York, meanwhile, the UN Security Council passed a watered-down presidential statement on Burma urging the Burmese junta to make the May 10 referendum “credible and inclusive,” but omitting calls for the release of pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other political prisoners.

As the breaking news comes in that Cyclone 01B (Nargis) is wreaking havoc on Rangoon and the Irrawaddy delta we must take a step back from the referendum and direct our attention to the plight of those lives devastated by the storm.