It’s now clear that many people in Burma will cast a “No” vote against the military government’s constitutional referendum in May.

On April 4, the words “No” appeared on the walls of several locations in Mandalay, Burma’s second largest city.

“We have spray-painted ‘No’ on walls,” a campaign organizer told The Irrawaddy. The “Vote No” campaign will proceed, he said, in spite of the junta’s new law that prohibits any opposition to the referendum.     
 
The National League for Democracy, the main opposition group, has called on the electorate “to clearly and bravely vote ‘No’” in the referendum. The NLD took nearly two months to make its official announcement.  

A “No” vote is required, said the NLD, because the draft constitution was written by “hand-picked puppets” of the military government and lacks basic principles of democracy and human rights. The NLD was the major winner in the 1990 general elections.

Meanwhile, a small group of people inside and outside Burma have expressed support for the draft. However, there is little likelihood of a real debate between “No” and “Yes” groups at this stage.

If the “Vote No” campaign gained significant momentum, there’s always the possibility that the junta might cancel the referendum, or, if the referendum proceeds, that the election results will be rigged by the junta’s so-called poll-watchers, including the Union Solidarity and Development Association.

Because the junta has banned outside poll-watchers, it’s up to the NLD and other groups to try to monitor the referendum as well as they can.

A proposal to allow international observers to monitor the referendum by UN Special Envoy to Burma Ibrahim Gambari in March was rejected outright by the military authorities.

“We are a sovereign country,” they said. “We have done these things before without international help.”

Gambari told The Irrawaddy in a recent exclusive interview: “Our position is that their situation has been the subject of international concern, so [there is a need] to enhance the credibility of the process, to meet the exercise of their sovereign right to ask for help. Technical assistance or even independent monitors need not come from the UN—it could be from international monitors or neighboring countries or from friendly countries.”

There is no chance the junta will change its mind and accept the UN’s proposal.
 
Therefore, the NLD and other activist groups have the impossible task of trying to monitor the election. They risk sever penalties if they are seen to be obstructing the referendum process because of the junta’s new law, enacted in February and signed by junta Snr-Gen Than Shwe, provides for up to three years imprisonment and a fine for anyone who distributes statements or posters or who makes a speech against the referendum.

An NLD member was arrested on Sunday for possessing a NLD party statement calling for a “No” vote, according to party spokesperson Nyan Win. 

The junta has created a situation that prohibits any effective monitoring of the referendum. To do so, risks imprisonment. Opposition groups have again been out maneuvered by the wily generals.

The “Vote No” campaign is likely to produce the desired results, but the question is will the referendum’s official outcome reflect the people’s vote, or—more likely—what the generals want?