Recently, armed troops have reentered Rangoon in an apparent effort to prevent any potential protests and to search for hiding activists. Observers in the former Burmese capital suggested that these security measures will remain in place until the May referendum on a new constitution is successfully concluded.

Most Burma observers were surprised when the country’s state-run media announced the junta’s plans to hold a referendum. They immediately wondered why the regime felt confident enough to undertake such a major step just six months after its brutal crackdown on last September’s demonstrations led by Buddhist monks.
 
By all accounts, anti-junta sentiment among ordinary Burmese is still high. Indeed, there is little reason to believe that the majority of Burmese have altered their perception of the regime since they voted overwhelmingly to reject military rule in 1990, the last time they were given a chance to participate in national decision-making.

So why have they decided to hold a referendum now? A Rangoon-based senior journalist offered this explanation: “Chinese pressure, astrologers’ suggestions and the cunning of the hard-line group in Naypyidaw produced Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s decision.”

Interesting! The China factor is clear. After the bloody crackdown in September, China was suddenly thrust into the spotlight as a major supporter of one of the world’s most appalling regimes. This unwelcome attention threatened to cast a pall over the upcoming Beijing Olympics, prompting China to quietly nudge Naypyidaw to do something to placate international public opinion.

The Rangoon-based journalist noted one obvious flaw in the astrological argument: Burma’s generals always time major events to fall on dates that add up to 9, a number they regard as auspicious. But 2+8 (the numbers in this year) make 10, not 9. But perhaps this is not so odd, after all. “Than Shwe is getting old now, so he easily forgets things. Perhaps he thinks this year is 2007,” the senior journalist suggested. “Everyone is afraid of him, so no one is going to tell him he got it wrong,” he added, not entirely tongue in cheek.

The theory that hardliners have something up their sleeve is based on reports that the leaders of the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA)—notably Htay Oo, Aung Thaung, U Thaung and Kyaw Hsan—have promised Than Shwe that they can get a “yes” vote to approve their so-called constitution. Their confidence most likely derives from their claim that the USDA now has 24 million members—roughly half of Burma’s electorate.

Perhaps the junta has learned a few lessons from the 1990 election, which resulted in a stunning victory for the National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi. This time around, the military regime will ensure that the opposition party and democracy activists have no room to maneuver. There will be no public debate or discussion on the contents of the constitution, and international demands for impartial observers have been rejected out of hand.

Meanwhile, the junta is turning up the pressure on Burmese people to vote “yes” in the coming referendum, resorting to a combination of dirty tricks and outright bullying. A part of the plan is to issue temporary identity cards to local residents in remote townships, including areas under the control of ethnic ceasefire groups, in exchange for a “yes” vote in the referendum. Some reports also said that the USDA is trying to create confusion by campaigning that military rule will continue for another 20 years if the constitution is rejected.

So far, no one knows has any clear idea how the referendum will be carried out. There have been no instructions on how or where to set up polling stations and ballot boxes; no budget has been allocated to cover the expense of holding the referendum; and most importantly, there has been no public distribution of the draft constitution. The referendum promised in May seems as remote and hazy as the junta’s vaunted “disciplined democracy”.

But one thing is certain: if the junta doesn’t get what it wants again this time, it will act as if the referendum never happened.