In addition, Tin Aung Myint Oo is now believed to be allied with Kyaw Hsan, the information minister, and Khin Aung Myint, the speaker of the Upper House who is also a protégé of Than Shwe. With this Machiavellian trio in place, Tin Aung Mying Oo has personally interfered with many major decisions of the new government, undermining both Thein Sein’s executive authority and his ability to implement policy.

Tin Aung Myint Oo has also been able to muffle the voice of Shwe Mann, whose recent speech to businessmen in Rangoon was censored by Kyaw Hsan’s information ministry.

Shwe Mann asked the group of businessmen to be good citizens of Burma and promised that he would do the same in furtherance of Thein Sein’s public vow of “good governance” by the new authorities. He even said that “no one in Burma is above the law,” words he last spoke when the regime removed powerful intelligence chief Khin Nyunt in 2004. This time, his use of the phrase left everyone wondering whether the comment was directed towards a certain individual—maybe rival Tin Aung Myint Oo, or ever Than Shwe himself?

The Lower House speaker went on to say that if there is no Parliament in a country, the citizens will be oppressed—apparently forgetting the fact that he was one of the most prominent and powerful members of the former military regime, and the fact that two of his sons received major business concessions from that regime that made the family very wealthy.

But Shwe Mann also admitted Burma’s failure, saying the country is lagging far behind, and acknowledged its pariah status in the eyes of the world. These candid remarks impressed many of the businessmen who heard him speak, but didn’t impress Kyaw Hsan, who did not let news reports of the speech see the light of day.

The former joint chief of staff, however, is too powerful to be silenced completely and cannot be counted out. It is believed that Shwe Mann has the loyalty of the current commander in chief of the armed forces, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, who some observers note has begun to flex his muscles with the recent shuffle of the regional military commanders.

In addition, everyone is aware that Than Shwe is still watching from behind the scenes. A retired senior general who served in the SPDC’s predecessor, known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council, cautioned that Burma’s past military dictators never leave in peace—suggesting that they always come back to interfere in politics.

A case in point is Gen Ne Win, who officially retired in 1988 but continued to pull many strings until he was finally accused of conspiring to stage a coup and placed under house arrest in 2002.

Than Shwe, Burma’s most recent ex-dictator, is also a master political chess player who has no qualms about influencing the current administration when it suits his desires, and as one businessman close to Burma’s top brass recently told me, “No one wants to wake the sleeping tiger.” 

Sitting in the middle of this emerging power struggle among former generals—all of whom were more powerful than him in the previous regime—is the meek and indecisive President Thein Sein, who over the last three months has made some good speeches but accomplished very little.

Thein Sein is well aware of the rise of Tin Aung Myint Oo’s faction in the government, the very existence of which undermines his promises to govern well and stamp out corruption. But what can he realistically do about it?

Can a president whose entire political existence is beholden to a still-influential former dictator fire a vice-president on the rampage, who is both undermining his authority and is rumored to be taking massive kickbacks?

If Thein Sein can muster the political will and backing to do so, the people of Burma will say his actions are beginning to match his words, and the country may stand a chance. But if he cannot, we only have to look back over the last few decades of Burmese history to predict the outcome of an internal power struggle: The military wins, and the people lose.

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