Only three months into the formation of Burma’s new quasi-civilian government, a power struggle has emerged among the former top generals who removed their uniforms and donned longyi in an attempt to convince the world that the country was on the road to disciplined democracy.

Like two stags during the rutting season, ex-Gen Shwe Mann, the current speaker of the Lower House of Parliament, and ex-Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo, the current first vice-president, are bugling their presence, butting antlers and collecting allies.

Although it’s hard to predict where this conflict will lead, the pressure is on new President Thein Sein to settle the matter before it gets out of control. If Thein Sein does not resolve the situation, then he will he be sidelined and Burma could be thrown back into the dark ages of military dictatorship.

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

In this position, Shwe Mann oversaw the operations of the armed forces and earned the respect and cooperation of regional commanders. It was believed that he would have the solid backing of the military following the official retirement of Than Shwe and his deputy, Gen Maung Aye, and as a result he was tipped to become president after the election.

Shwe Mann’s success and popularity, however, may have contributed to his comeuppance. His steady rise in the armed forces perhaps alarmed the ever-paranoid Than Shwe, who passed him over for president in favor of the more malleable and less dangerous Thein Sein—a man much less likely to turn against Than Shwe and his family (the way Than Shwe turned against previous dictator Gen Ne Win and his family).

Thein Sein was previously a loyal officer to Than Shwe, and while acting as prime minister for the former junta, he proved to be a front-man who was adept at carrying the diplomatic water for the generals. He is no saint—we must always remember that he was a top general and prime minister in a ruthless regime—but he is known to be less corrupt than most of the former junta leaders and a good listener. Although it was rumored that Thein Sein wanted to retire due to health reasons after the election, Than Shwe needed him and asked him to stay on.

An embarrassed and beleaguered Shwe Mann suffered another blow when, to the surprise of many, Than Shwe picked Tin Aung Myint Oo to be the first vice president. The former Secretary 1 and number four ranked member of the SPDC, who also served in the powerful position of Quartermaster-General, is a hard-liner renowned for his foul mouth and grumpy demeanor. He also has a reputation for allegedly taking massive kickbacks for granting business concessions to Burmese cronies and Chinese companies investing in Burma.

But none of this deterred Than Shwe from tabbing Tin Aung Myint Oo to be the first vice president. This should come as no surprise, however, because the move is classic Than Shwe—he wants a good cop and a bad cop in the new administration, believing that as long as there is internal conflict he is safe.

Just as the former dictator must have predicted, there is now clear tension among the top officials in the new civilian regime. The question remains, however, as to whether Than Shwe was too clever by half, because if his maneuvers set the stage for another dictator to emerge in the person of Tin Aung Myint Oo, he may be in more danger than he ever would have been under a Shwe Mann presidency.

Given his hard-line attitude and clear quest for power, it is not surprising that Tin Aung Myint Oo has emerged as a strong, and possibly the strongest, leader in the new civilian regime. He has inserted himself directly in the decision-making process, bypassing President Thein Sein to get his way on matters ranging from the budget to trade policies to security affairs.

In addition, Tin Aung Myint Oo is now believed to be allied with Kyaw Hsan, the information minister, and Khin Aung Myint, the speaker of the Upper House who is also a protégé of Than Shwe. With this Machiavellian trio in place, Tin Aung Mying Oo has personally interfered with many major decisions of the new government, undermining both Thein Sein’s executive authority and his ability to implement policy.

Tin Aung Myint Oo has also been able to muffle the voice of Shwe Mann, whose recent speech to businessmen in Rangoon was censored by Kyaw Hsan’s information ministry.

Shwe Mann asked the group of businessmen to be good citizens of Burma and promised that he would do the same in furtherance of Thein Sein’s public vow of “good governance” by the new authorities. He even said that “no one in Burma is above the law,” words he last spoke when the regime removed powerful intelligence chief Khin Nyunt in 2004. This time, his use of the phrase left everyone wondering whether the comment was directed towards a certain individual—maybe rival Tin Aung Myint Oo, or ever Than Shwe himself?

The Lower House speaker went on to say that if there is no Parliament in a country, the citizens will be oppressed—apparently forgetting the fact that he was one of the most prominent and powerful members of the former military regime, and the fact that two of his sons received major business concessions from that regime that made the family very wealthy.

But Shwe Mann also admitted Burma’s failure, saying the country is lagging far behind, and acknowledged its pariah status in the eyes of the world. These candid remarks impressed many of the businessmen who heard him speak, but didn’t impress Kyaw Hsan, who did not let news reports of the speech see the light of day.

The former joint chief of staff, however, is too powerful to be silenced completely and cannot be counted out. It is believed that Shwe Mann has the loyalty of the current commander in chief of the armed forces, Gen Min Aung Hlaing, who some observers note has begun to flex his muscles with the recent shuffle of the regional military commanders.

In addition, everyone is aware that Than Shwe is still watching from behind the scenes. A retired senior general who served in the SPDC’s predecessor, known as the State Law and Order Restoration Council, cautioned that Burma’s past military dictators never leave in peace—suggesting that they always come back to interfere in politics.

A case in point is Gen Ne Win, who officially retired in 1988 but continued to pull many strings until he was finally accused of conspiring to stage a coup and placed under house arrest in 2002.

Than Shwe, Burma’s most recent ex-dictator, is also a master political chess player who has no qualms about influencing the current administration when it suits his desires, and as one businessman close to Burma’s top brass recently told me, “No one wants to wake the sleeping tiger.” 

Sitting in the middle of this emerging power struggle among former generals—all of whom were more powerful than him in the previous regime—is the meek and indecisive President Thein Sein, who over the last three months has made some good speeches but accomplished very little.

Thein Sein is well aware of the rise of Tin Aung Myint Oo’s faction in the government, the very existence of which undermines his promises to govern well and stamp out corruption. But what can he realistically do about it?

Can a president whose entire political existence is beholden to a still-influential former dictator fire a vice-president on the rampage, who is both undermining his authority and is rumored to be taking massive kickbacks?

If Thein Sein can muster the political will and backing to do so, the people of Burma will say his actions are beginning to match his words, and the country may stand a chance. But if he cannot, we only have to look back over the last few decades of Burmese history to predict the outcome of an internal power struggle: The military wins, and the people lose.

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