Regardless of Burma’s right to pursue peaceful nuclear technology, its capacity to do so safely and practically should be the most immediate concern

As speculation mounts over Burma’s nuclear collaboration with Russia, perhaps o­ne fear can be laid to rest. The proposed research reactor will not allow Burma’s military leaders to produce nuclear weapons—at least not yet. So what benefits can be derived from such a facility, and what purpose might it serve in Burma?

PET (positron emission tomography) scanners like this o­ne have proved superior to other imaging techniques in the diagnosis and management of various cancers and disorders of the heart and vascular system

Reactors with similar specifications already exist in many Asean member countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Their principle use is for the production of radioisotopes, which have numerous applications in the medical, industrial and agricultural sectors.

Burma’s collaboration with Rosatom, Russia’s federal nuclear agency, comes at a critical stage in the advent of nuclear markets in the developing world and particularly in Southeast Asia.

“Today, 26 power plants are under construction worldwide, in countries from Argentina to Romania, according to the International Energy Agency,” wrote Andrew Kramer in his New York Times report “For a Russian Builder of Nuclear Plants, Business is Booming,” in early June. “Of these, o­nly two are being built in developed economies—one each in Finland and Japan.”

Southeast Asia has become a prime hunting ground for Russia’s main nuclear contractor, Atomstroyexport, which is negotiating to build Burma’s reactor. The company is currently involved in similar negotiations with Vietnam, Malaysia, Egypt, Namibia, Morocco, South Africa, Algeria, Brazil, Chile and Argentina, Kramer wrote, citing Atomstroyexport’s chief executive, Sergei Shmatko.

“We’re talking about a nuclear renaissance,” Shmatko is quoted as saying by Kramer. “We are certain we have a market.”

Apart from energy concerns, this so-called renaissance has more to do with economics and industry than proliferation, as the production and application of radioisotopes becomes big business, and as a first step towards power production.

But Burma’s ability to penetrate this market, assuming this is their intention, depends as much o­n creating the necessary infrastructure as it does o­n possessing a reactor.

“Given the woefully inadequate health facilities, the lack of sufficient trained health personnel, the lack of reliable infrastructure, the absence of effective regulatory oversight of pharmaceutical products and the extensive corruption in Burma, the ability to safely and effectively use such technology there is already in question,” according to Dr Voravit Suwanvanichkij, a research associate at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Radioisotopes are radioactive, and therefore extremely dangerous if not handled with meticulous care. “You need a facility, a regulatory framework, with all the inspectorates, with all of the bureaucracy, to be able to account for these individual isotopes from cradle to grave,” John Large, a nuclear engineer and analyst who heads a London-based consultant agency, Large & Associates, told The Irrawaddy.

This is to say nothing of the need for equipping hospitals throughout the country with devices capable of using radioisotopes.

A recent article in the Health Watch supplement of the English language weekly newspaper The Myanmar Times, suggests that at least a small market exists in Burma for advanced medical technology capable of using radioisotopes.

The article, “Hospitals Constantly Seeking New Equipment,” says that a local distributor, Meditech Company Ltd, has imported Siemens medical equipment to Burma since 1997.

According to an advertisement in the Yangon Directory 2007, Meditech imports gamma cameras and positron emission tomography (PET) scanners, both commonly used in nuclear medical diagnosis.

But the high cost of such products allows o­nly top-tier facilities, such as the private Pan Hlaing hospital in Rangoon, to acquire the equipment, The Myanmar Times article noted.

Burma’s contract with Atomstroyexport will include not o­nly the construction of the facility but the delivery and removal of core fuel. In addition, Rosatom will provide training in Russia for several hundred Burmese scientists and researchers, over and above the several hundred that have reportedly been training there in the last few years.

But to maintain a network of regulatory safeguards, from the technicians who produce the radioisotopes to the truck drivers who deliver them to hospitals, will require training thousands of individuals, including hospital staff, in the handling and tracking of radioactive materials.

Any attempt to initiate a nuclear weapons program would require even more complex controls and training, and Burma would likely not be capable of doing so clandestinely, even if Russia or North Korea were willing to assist in the effort.

“It is highly unlikely that Burma currently has any intention of acquiring nuclear weapons, from North Korea or anywhere else,” writes defense analyst Andrew Selth in the 2007 Griffith Asia Institute report Burma and Nuclear Proliferation: Policies and Perceptions.

He added: “It is hard to escape the conclusion that the main impetus behind the nuclear reactor project was status and prestige, driven by the enthusiasm of the Minister for Science and Technology [U Thaung], who believed that nuclear research was necessary for ‘a modern nation.’”

Why Burma (and Atomstroyexport) thought it best to sell the project as a research facility focused o­n medical applications of nuclear technology remains unclear. “For Burma to invest in nuclear medical technology makes no sense from a public health standpoint, when her peoples continue to die needlessly from diarrheal diseases (including cholera), vaccine-preventable diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria and malnutrition,” Voravit said.

Moreover, Burma’s chronic energy shortages are at least marginally more persuasive as an argument for nuclear investment, though the lack of necessary security and regulatory controls in the country would still obtain; and evidence exists to suggest that this is ultimately the direction Burma’s military government wants to take.

In the short term, however, any suggestion that Burma is in active pursuit of nuclear weapons would be rash. To build the proposed research reactor will take at least three to five years, providing negotiations proceed without incident.

Any attempt to develop a nuclear weapon would require 10 or more years, according to Selth, given the proper conditions. “For a country like Burma, these would constitute formidable obstacles, even if no attempts were made by the international community to halt the program,” writes Selth.

Nonetheless, Burma’s small research reactor would not rule out at least a small step in that direction.

“If you provide a country with nuclear technology, you’re providing them with the basic building blocks for them to move o­n at some time in the future into a nuclear weapons program,” said Large.

He added that a 10-megawatt reactor could not produce sufficient quantities of plutonium required for nuclear weapons, but it could produce tiny specks that could be used in a laboratory “to learn and understand the radiochemistry, the radiometallurgy, of a nuclear weapons program.”

Burma’s true intentions in acquiring nuclear technology may not explicitly be known. Perhaps its insistence that any nuclear program will o­nly be used for peaceful purposes is sincere.

But even the peaceful uses of such technology—potentially capable of reaping enormous benefits for the Burmese people—require years of preparation to modernize healthcare and industry and to forge a more functional relationship with the international community as a whole.

Given the costs of the proposed nuclear facility—estimates vary between tens of millions to hundreds of millions of dollars—and the more immediate needs of large sections of the population, investing in its people is a better place for Burma to start.