Burma’s generals are quoted in official newspapers as claiming they want to build a modern and developed nation with “flourishing disciplined democracy.” But consider the true picture…
Burma’s prisons still incarcerate more than 1,000 political prisoners, according to Amnesty International. Burma’s most famous political prisoner, Aung San Suu Kyi, remains under house arrest, and the regime recently announced that her release date hasn’t been decided yet.
Residents in many parts of Rangoon still live in semi-darkness as the government can only provide electricity six hours a day. Roads are in an appalling state, and those who have to use them jokingly say it’s like driving on the moon.
It doesn’t take economists or political scientists to confirm that Burma is in a state of limbo. The slowdown is clear for all to see.
Some, including Burmese political observers, believe the slowdown might lead the country and its government to a complete halt. Their fears are compounded by rumors of a power struggle among top leaders, about Snr-Gen Than Shwe’s health and his hesitant departure from the political scene.
Persistent rumors indicate that Than Shwe, who is in his late 70s, wants to relinquish the post in which he has served so long, but might not want to vacate the throne for Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye. Than Shwe became commander in chief of the armed forces and chairman of the ruling junta, the State Peace and Development Council, in 1991.
Pundits also point out that Than Shwe may also be worried about his family business and the personal safety of his family members. His desire to leave office may, therefore, face the opposition of his wife, Kyaing Kyaing.
Kyaing Kyaing, who has five daughters, two sons and grandsons, is said to call the shots in the family and is considered to wield considerable influence within its circle. Her sons are involved in business, and her eldest grandson, a favorite of Than Shwe, is currently studying in Singapore.
It’s likely, therefore, that Than Shwe may remain in power indefinitely. But that possibility didn’t prevent his likely successor, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, from making a move after Than Shwe received medical treatment in Singapore in January.
Shwe Mann, who is attached to the Defense Ministry, appeared at several state functions, receiving foreign visitors and making an official visit to India.
After graduating from the Defense Services Academy, Intake 11, in 1969, Shwe Mann earned the honorific title "Thura" for his bravery in fighting the Karen National Liberation Army in 1989. He continued his studies at the National Defense Institute, then joined the Ministry of Defense in 2001, becoming joint chief-of-staff. In 2003, he was promoted to general.
Shwe Mann was rarely seen in public, but is known to be Than Shwe’s favored choice to lead the armed forces when, or if, he retires. After being given a top job at the Defense Ministry, 59-year-old Shwe Mann kept in the shadows for many years. Than Shwe encouraged this secretiveness, keeping foreign and Burmese observers guessing. It’s likely, though, that the top job within the armed forces is being reserved for Shwe Mann, who has been running day-to-day affairs at the Defense Ministry.
Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye, army commander-in-chief and one of the two remaining members of the ruling council that staged the bloody coup in 1988, may not ready to embrace Shwe Mann, however.
Recent rumors circulating among political observers say that Shwe Mann and Maung Aye may be at loggerheads. Maung Aye, a former northern commander who graduated from DSA Intake 1, played a pivotal role in eliminating former Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt and his once powerful intelligence apparatus in 2004. The two had been locked in a power struggle for many years, but finally Khin Nyunt lost and was given a 44-year prison sentence for insubordination and corruption. He is now under house arrest.
The Burmese army normally resists the advance of an intelligence chief to its top post, but Khin Nyunt was an exception since he had the blessing of the late dictator Gen Ne Win, who was seen as godfather within the armed forces until the 1990s. If there is indeed a serious rift at the top between Maung Aye and Shwe Mann, it will therefore pose a real threat to the unity of the armed forces. An intervention by Than Shwe can be expected soon.
Than Shwe looked healthy enough at the Union Day ceremony on February 12, although his absence at the Independence Day observances on January 4 fuelled speculation that he may be dying of cancer.
As things stand at the moment, even if Than Shwe wants to leave office he may be forced to make a delicate and difficult decision to balance the power between powerful generals, as well as clearing it with his wife and ensuring the safety of their children. He must still be clever enough to realize that if he fails in this balancing trick the predictions of the pessimists will come true and there will be a dogfight.
Can a Young Tycoon Change the Generals?
The generals in Burma cannot survive alone—they need friends and allies. And that means Burma’s top tycoons.
The secretive and corrupt business environment in Burma lacks any form of transparency, enabling many businesspeople to find ways to bribe the top generals and win permission to do business, to export and import goods and gain concessions. Hence, businesspeople and generals are inseparable buddies.
The fate of Than Shwe and his family, for example, hangs on one young businessman, Tay Za. Equally, Tay Za’s fortune depends heavily on Than Shwe.
The 43-year old businessman is president and managing director of Htoo Trading Company and a major player in Burma’s tourism, logging, palm oil, real estate, hotel, air line and housing development industries. His company, Air Bagan, recently bought two A-320 passenger aircraft, and business sources say Than Shwe’s wife, Kyaing Kyaing, and members of her family may have invested in the airline business. Although not confirmed, this is currently hot news in Rangoon’s business circles.
Tay Za (also spelled Te Za) is one of Burma’s best-connected tycoons, often accompanying top leaders on overseas missions. His Myanmar Avia Export is Burma’s sole representative of Russia’s Export Military Industrial Group, known as MAPO, and of the Russian helicopter company Rostvertol, and last year he went with Deputy Snr-Gen Maung Aye to Russia.
Tay Za was instrumental in helping the junta purchase advanced MiG-29 fighter-bombers and helicopters from Russia, and he is thought to have arranged sales of small arms to the junta.
While Tay Za’s close allies are said to be Than Shwe and Gen Thura Shwe Mann, his relations with Maung Aye might not be so good. Last year Maung Aye, in his capacity as chairman of the Trade Policy Council, instructed the Minister of Finance and Revenue to increase taxes on businesses owned by Tay Za. The minister ordered state auditors to examine the company’s accounts, but Tay Za’s powerful friends intervened to block the investigation.
Tay Za has no shortage of friends. As well as enjoying a cozy relationship with Than Shwe, he is known to be romantically involved with one of the general’s daughters, which may—or may not be—a reason for his marriage to Thida Zaw being on the rocks.
Burmese businessmen note that Tay Za likes to bring children of senior military leaders into his company as directors. For instance, Aung Thet Mann, Shwe Mann’s son, is on a Tay Za company board of directors, and Aung Thet Mann’s own company is now involved in building new military facilities in Naypyidaw.
Tay Za often flies to Singapore, where he is said to have arranged a deal with a major bank to help generals’ families to invest money there. Than Shwe’s wife Kyaing Kyaing and her family members are often seen in Singapore shopping—not only for luxuries but also for property.
One unconfirmed report shared among Burmese in Singapore suggests that Tay Za has bought luxury cars, including a Lamborghini for Than Shwe’s grandson, who is studying there. Tay Za himself drives a Bentley and a Ferrari.
There’s even a suggestion that Tay Za and his well-heeled, well-travelled business colleagues are better placed to influence Than Shwe than any UN or US envoy. It’s argued that their encounters with the good life outside Burma, in a world where fast cars and fine wines are the norm, have opened their eyes to what is wrong with their own country.
Can it be that the experience of driving their luxury cars over Burma’s potholed roads makes them believe that regime change is necessary? Can they convince Than Shwe of that? Perhaps Than Shwe wants to keep behind the wheel of his Toyota Land Cruiser. In that case, Tay Za, take your Ferrari to Singapore.