The “dark horse” advance in recent years of Burma’s Gen Thura Shwe Mann has fed rumors that he has been groomed to become the country’s next armed forces commander-in-chief, o­ne of the posts currently held by junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe. Such speculation is fueled in part by the junta’s periodic reshuffles, when new faces—or old o­nes—rise or fall according to the whims of the moment. The military government rolls out its new leaders like car manufacturers unveiling the new season’s models. Therefore, it’s worth taking a moment to “kick the tires”, so to speak, to discover if there’s anything to the rumors, or if—as is usually the case—it’s just the same old car with a fresh coat of paint.

Is there any substance to the rumors?

Rumors are generally just that—speculation based o­n a variety of more or less objective observations. But rumors about Shwe Mann have been persistent. He is currently the No. 3 man in the military hierarchy and holds the title of joint chief of staff. At present, Than Shwe and his No. 2, Vice Snr-Gen Maung Aye, appear to be firmly in control of the state. What happens after the National Convention concludes, and what role Than Shwe stakes out after a constitution has been adopted and elections held remains anyone’s guess.

What’s Shwe Mann’s story?

He graduated from the Defense Services Academy’s Intake 11 in 1969. Since then, he has risen steadily through the ranks of the officers’ corps, achieving the level of major in 1988. What involvement he had in the bloody crackdown of pro-democracy student protestors that year remains unknown.

Shwe Mann earned the honorific title “Thura” for bravery during action against the Karen National Liberation Army in 1989. He had served in Karen State as a regiment commander but soon earned the rank of lieutenant-colonel, and then full colonel two years later.

He served in 1991 as a tactical operations commander for Light Infantry Division 66 based in Prome, some 177 miles (285 km) northwest of Rangoon. By 1996, he had achieved the rank of brigadier-general and was appointed to oversee security in Rangoon as commander of the elite LID 11 based in Htauk Kyant, about 20 miles (32 km) west of the former capital.

A year later, Shwe Mann was named commander of Southwest Military Region in Bassein, Irrawaddy Division, as well as a de facto member of the ruling State Peace and Development Council. In 2000, he was promoted to major-general and became a permanent member of the SPDC.

How did he get his plum assignment in the defense ministry?

Burma’s senior military leadership is always o­n the lookout for young guns to fill important—or strategic—ministry posts. Candidates are generally former field commanders with frontline experience, like Shwe Mann, who also took the important step of continuing his studies at the National Defense Institute. They are also appointed as much for their loyalties to senior officials as their credentials.

Shwe Mann was transferred to the defense ministry in 2001, where he assumed the prestigious position of joint chief of staff, which gave him oversight of all commanders from the army, navy and air force. The following year, he was awarded the newly minted position of Tatmadaw Nyi Hnying Kutkae Yay Hmu, which gave him oversight of Burma’s five bureaus of special operations as well.

By 2003, Shwe Mann had reached the rank of general, though little has been heard from or about him in Burma’s official press since his attachment to the defense ministry. Observers continue to speculate about how much real authority he has. His post at the defense ministry puts him in command of officials at Burma’s BSOs who are more senior to him. Whether he has any say in decision-making, or whether his role is to rubber-stamp commands from above is unknown.

What does the military rank-and-file think of him?

Shwe Mann seems to have earned considerable respect among Burma’s foot soldiers, particularly those who served directly under his command. His recent duties, however, have kept him far from the front lines and out of touch with regional commanders and their battalions.

What connections does he have to Burma’s former and current power-brokers?

Shwe Mann’s classmates at the Defense Services Academy included Brig-Gen Kyaw Thein, a former intelligence officer with close ties to Burma’s former premier, Gen Khin Nyunt, who successfully evaded the 2004 purge, as well as current Minister of Information Brig-Gen Kyaw Hsan.

When another of his academy classmates, Deputy Defense Minister Kyi Win, was removed from his post o­n charges of corruption—made by Myint Hlaing, the head of Burma’s air defense department—Shwe Mann had strong objections to the move but was powerless to stop it. The decision to sack Kyi Win came directly from Than Shwe and Maung Aye—a sign, perhaps, that Shwe Mann was being kept o­n a short leash.

What’s his take o­n The Lady?

Like most of Burma’s top military leaders, Shwe Mann generally avoids talking about pro-democracy icon and Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi. Some observers believe that he has specific reasons for avoiding the topic. While Than Shwe is known to have an almost pathological hatred of Suu Kyi, Shwe Mann is cautious not to attack her publicly. Observers account for his cautious approach by suggesting that he may have to deal with The Lady o­n a political level at some point in the future.

What vision, if any, does he have for the country?

Shwe Mann has not yet shown his hand with regard to a broad social, economic or political vision for Burma’s future. He has been quoted as saying, however, that the country’s future leaders must have in-depth knowledge in two specific areas—gems and rice. He is also said to have taken steps to modernize Burma’s antiquated rice mills to improve export production. Such a suggestion—with its obvious failure to address issues of democratic reform and national reconciliation—is perhaps motivated by a family interest in both gems and agriculture, and may say more about his future vision than any specific statements o­n the issue.

What about business connections?

Alliances with Burma’s leading business tycoons can be richly rewarding to the country’s military leadership. While Shwe Mann appears to have no direct connections to business, his sons do. Aung Thet Mann is a director at Ayer Shwe Wah, which in 2005 became the first private company allowed to export rice to Bangladesh and Singapore. The company is part of Burmese tycoon Tay Za’s Htoo Trading Company.

Aung Thet Mann has been in business since his father was regional commander in Irrawaddy Division, where Ayer Shwe Wah received lucrative government contracts to supply fertilizers to farmers throughout the delta region. The company has also been involved in construction projects in the new administrative capital Naypyidaw. A second son is married to the daughter of another tycoon, Zaykabar Khin Shwe.

What kind of public profile does he have in Burma?

Shwe Mann appears to shun the spotlight and rarely speaks in public. He did break his normal silence when the former premier, Gen Khin Nyunt, and the intelligence empire he built were purged from power in 2004. In a speech to a gathering of businesspeople following the purge, he said: “In the military everybody is liable for their failure to abide by the law. Nobody is above the law.” In a country where the military government is essentially a law unto itself, with no accountability to the people it rules, such a statement betrays Shwe Mann’s decided lack of media savvy, if not outright naïveté.

What are the chances that Maung Aye will sign off o­n promoting Shwe Mann to commander-in-chief of Burma’s armed forces?

This is where speculation o­n Shwe Mann gets even murkier. Any such appointment would largely be a political move by Than Shwe to put a proven ally in a well-placed position of power. Rumors were rife last year among military officers, who suggested that if Than Shwe were to give too much power to Shwe Mann, or if he were explicitly anointed as his “heir apparent”, then Maung Aye would attempt a coup to seize power for himself. Whatever the rumors may say, it’s a safe bet that Maung Aye won’t easily—or quietly—relinquish his share of power, now or in the near future.

At 59, is he too old to be commander-in-chief?

Commanders in Burma’s armed forces generally start thinking about retirement when they reach the age of 60. But a different set of rules seems to apply to the SPDC’s paramount rulers. At 77, Than Shwe still manages to cling to power. His second-in-command, Maung Aye, tips the scales at 68. How old a leader is in Burma seems far less important than his ability to create the alliances that will allow him to assume and maintain power.