Earlier this week, a letter bomb, allegedly addressed to Burma’s police chief, exploded at a post office in the suburb of the former capital, Rangoon, injuring a postal worker. There are also reports that another bomb, which failed to explode, was discovered at Rangoon's General Post Office last week.

These were the latest bomb incidents to date in Burma, and the first this year. A radical student group, the Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors, claimed responsibility for the letter bomb.

A roadside bomb killed a garbage collector in a small town near Pegu, 70km north of Rangoon, o­n May 12, 2006. No o­ne claimed responsibility. Just a week before that fatal bomb, an explosion o­n a railway line near Burma’s new capital, Pyinmana, damaged a transformer and a fence. Again, no o­ne claimed responsibility.

However, the rail track explosion took place just a day after Burma’s ruling military junta, officially known as the State Peace and Development Council, or SPDC, blamed exiled dissident “terrorists” for a spate of bombings that had rattled the country in April. 

Unlike Iraq, where car bombs and suicide bombers have claimed thousands of lives, bomb blasts in Burma are normally o­n a smaller scale, resulting in fairly limited casualties. A notable exception was o­n May 7, 2005, when three bombs exploded simultaneously at three upscale shopping centers in Rangoon, claiming 23 lives and injuring more than 160 civilians.

But, despite their relatively small size, the latest blast in Rangoon adds to a tally of some 70 documented bombings since 1989. Worryingly, the problem appears to be worsening. While the May 2005 bombings were the biggest ever, last year saw the highest number of bombings incidents—17 separate bomb attacks. To date, approximately 80 people have been killed and more than 250 people injured since the first blasts were reported in 1989.

Patterns of bombings are often different and targets vary. But they have included railway lines, hotels, markets, shopping malls, power transformers, government facilities such as post offices and companies believed to be close to the junta. Bombs have also reportedly been discovered at Burmese embassies in Tokyo and Manila.

The reaction from Burma’s rulers to these bombings is predictably swift. The military quickly heaps blame o­n its external and internal political critics, and its armed ethnic opponents—almost always making these pronouncements before a proper investigation is launched, let alone come to any conclusion.

Yet, ironically, these bombings rarely target military installations or military personnel. o­nly twice have bombs hit direct military targets. o­n April 6, 1997, a parcel bomb exploded at the home of o­ne of Burma’s top generals, Lt-Gen Tin Oo, killing his daughter. The military government accused a Japan-based anti-government group of sending the airmailed bomb.

Four days later o­n April 10, a bomb went off at a military academy in Maymyo, killing an army major and 14 cadets just moments after the junta supremo, Gen Than Shwe, had delivered a speech at the cadets’ graduation.  

Bombings have become more frequent over the past few years. Yet o­nly o­n o­ne occasion before this week’s letter bomb attack has any group ever claimed responsibility. o­n March 19, 2005, a small bomb exploded before dawn in a bathroom at the Panorama Hotel, which is popular with backpackers. There were no injuries. The Vigorous Burmese Student Worriers claimed responsibility.

So who are the other bombers? Who bears most responsibility for the spate of bombings over the past decade and a half?

The SPDC squarely blames all dissidents for their “destructive acts” after every explosion. It often organizes lengthy press conferences to show “evidence” of foul play and denounces the purported atrocities of opposition groups.

But exiled dissidents and armed ethnic groups have categorically denied any involvement in those bombings where no claims of responsibility were received. Instead, they finger the military, accusing it of planting bombs in order to put the blame o­n dissidents. They argue that, unlike the military junta infamous for gross human right violations, they have no intention to harm innocent civilians.

Most Burmese people tend to believe that o­nly the military has the capacity and intent to plant bombs, although dissidents privately admit that they suspect some of the people in their midst may be responsible for some of the explosions.

But what is there to gain for the military’s critics by planting explosives in crowded markets? If their objective is to create instability, it will have no bearing o­n the situation in a country already unstable due to armed conflict, and deep public dissatisfaction and unhappiness that has no outlet in a repressive, tightly controlled society.

Even if some explosions have been the handiwork of dissidents, as the junta repeatedly claims, the regime lacks the forensic capacity to produce any convincing proof. It also lacks credibility—the direct result of its eagerness to blame anything o­n dissidents and of repeated propaganda.

Aside from blaming the dissidents, there exist strong motivations within the hard-line elements of the Burmese armed forces to create instability in order to justify their continued rule. Such phenomena are not uncommon among the military and security apparatus in military dictatorships.

Internal problems and rivalry that exist between the army’s combat units and military intelligence or between the army and Ministry of Home Affairs, which now controls much of internal security, are also critical motivations to place explosive devices in order to play out their internal political tugs of war.    

To date, no o­ne knows for sure who the bombers are. The o­nly thing we know for sure is that Burma’s unending political and ethnic conflicts mean that bombs are likely to explode again in the future, and accusations and counter-allegations will fly between the military junta and its opponents.

In the meantime, Burma’s bombers—be they dissidents or military agents—will walk free. And innocent victims such as those killed in the May 2005 bombings will have fallen prey to political games.