March 2006

Shan State Army Leader Shuns Northern Thailand

Col Yawd Serk, leader of Shan State Army-South, has stopped his regular cross-border trips to Chiang Mai in northern Thailand, reportedly because he fears capture by Thai anti-drug squads.

The Burmese government has accused Yawd Serk of involvement in the drug trade, but he denies it. Nevertheless, he is said to be concerned about a series of anti-drug operations in northern Thailand last year. In one of the operations Thai narcotics agents arrested a 60-year-old Wa prince, Maha San, who lives in Chiang Mai. In another, a close aide of Yawd Serk, Sai Htun, was arrested in a sting operation.

Maha San, chairman of the Wa National Organization in exile, was arrested on suspicion of drug law violations.

Maha San’s brother, Maha Ja, is based in Ho Mong, the former Thai headquarters of drug lord Khun Sa, and is believed to be involved in drug trafficking activities. Thai authorities believe that the two Wa brothers were closely connected in the drug trade and that Maha San helped launder drug money for his brother in Thailand.

Shortly after the arrest of Maha San, who lived in Chiang Mai for many years, Thai narcotic officials arrested Sai Htun. Although he was found not to be in possession of drugs, his associate was shot by police while transporting a shipment of 172 bars of heroin, weighing 60 kg.

Sai Htun worked closely with Yawd Serk and traveled extensively on a Thai ID card. His last trip abroad was to Taiwan. With Sai Htun in jail, Yawd Serk is said to rarely venture now out of the SSA-S headquarters at Doi Tai Lang, on the Burmese-Thai border.

When the Thai government launched its war on drugs in 2003, Yawd Serk said in an interview with The Irrawaddy: “The Thais like to make a big show, but actually nothing is going on. They are good at talking one thing, and doing another. In the Thai war on drugs, nearly 2,800 people were killed, but these were only small people, not the big drug kingpins.”

Burma Regime Nervous about US and Thai Military Intentions

Thailand and Burma continue to monitor each other’s military strength amid a lingering and deep-seated mistrust between the two neighboring nations.

The mistrust, which sources say routinely surfaces at closed-door meetings of Burma’s ruling generals, is historically rooted but was further reinforced when US President George W Bush publicly announced the designation of Thailand as a “Major Non-NATO Ally” during a visit to Thailand in October 2003.

Thai distrust of Burma dates back centuries to the wars between Siamese and Burmese rulers, culminating in the destruction of the Siamese capital, Ayutthaya, in 1767. In recent times, Burma’s army leaders apprehensively watched as the American and Thai militaries organized annual joint exercises, code-named Cobra Gold.

During a closed-door meeting attended by top brass in Rangoon, warnings were sounded that Thailand is Burma’s nearest traditional enemy, and the annual Cobra Gold military exercise received special attention. Burmese leaders reportedly said that Burma would counter with its own exercise, codenamed Falcon, although they did not elaborate on its nature. But the leaders, including Snr-Gen Than Shwe, repeatedly talked about US military might and the invasion of Iraq.

Top army leaders also had harsh words to say about Burma’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy, saying—according to a reliable source—that if US forces attacked either Rangoon or Mandalay “we have to make sure to kill all hard-line NLD members.” The NLD would otherwise be used as US stooges, the leaders suggested.

The meeting agreed that more pressure could be expected from the US. Leaders claimed that within Europe there were some countries that held positive views on Burma. Relations with Russia were good, they noted, and Moscow was providing Burma with weapons and technical support. Russian technicians were also helping in Burma’s mining industry.

Academic Diplomacy

Australia’s low­-key diplomacy with Burma recently took another quiet step. The state-run Australian National University recently appointed Danish policy analyst Morten Pedersen as “convener of research on Burma/Myanmar.”  Pedersen, who completed his PhD at ANU in late 2005, was a “senior analyst” with the International Crisis Group in Rangoon from 2001-2005, and a consultant with the World Bank, UN and EU. Sometimes labeled a Rangoon regime apologist, Pedersen is a proponent of increased engagement with the SPDC and a vocal critic of US sanctions.

The post, which was not advertised, seeks to increase educational ties with Burmese universities and raise ANU’s research profile on Burma-related issues. Since 2002, ANU has hosted several visits by Burmese university rectors to foster more student exchanges, and in early 2003 a delegation from the university visited Rangoon. Many of these exchanges have been conducted in a hushed fashion with little public awareness.