Conflicting claims, suspicion and arrests create confusion

Although the Rangoon regime insists that Shan State is stable, one armed opposition group, the Shan State Army (South), continues to hold out against government pressure to disarm. Relations between Shan groups and the regime are also strained because of the arrest in February of several ethnic leaders, including 82-year-old activist Shwe Ohn.

Complicating the situation still further in Shan State is the status of the United Wa State Army, which maintains a de facto ceasefire with the regime while allegedly continuing to engage in a drugs trade protected by their own armed forces.

The first ceasefire agreements between Shan ethnic groups and the regime were signed in 1989. The original agreements granted the groups business concessions, particularly in logging, and tax collection autonomy. They also allowed the groups to remain armed—but from early this year the regime has been pressing them to disarm under a program dubbed “Exchange Arms for Peace.”

In April, 170 soldiers of the Shan State National Army turned in their arms and 843 rebels of the Palaung State Liberation Army surrendered to the Burmese Army. The following month, the leader of the SSNA, Col Sai Yi, and several of his troops abandoned their base in northern Shan State and merged with the SSA-S.

In September, an 800-strong brigade of the Shan State Army (North) also abandoned their base rather than disarm.

Despite these developments, the junta’s information minister, Kyaw Hsan, claimed at a recent press conference that “peace” had been secured with armed ethnic movements.

“If things are improving, why are people fleeing to Thailand every day?” responded SSA-S spokeswoman Nam Khur Hsen. The Burma Army presence in Shan State has also increased dramatically, from about 40 battalions in 1988 to a current strength of more than 200, according to Khuensai Jaiyen, of the Shan Herald Agency for News.

The UWSA, with an estimated membership of around 15,000, is the strongest of the Shan ethnic groups. Apart from the two arms of the Shan State Army, others include the SSNA, the Shan State Nationalities Peoples’ Liberation Organization, the Myanmar [Burma] National Democracy Alliance Army (a Kokang group), Shan-Akha group National Democratic Alliance Army (Shan-Akha), the Pa-O National Organization, PSLA, and the Kachin Defence Army. Several smaller groups act as local armed militia, while Rangoon has given others border police duties.

Many of the groups are being allowed to produce and trade in drugs in exchange for co-operation with the regime, according to a report by the Shan Herald Agency for News. The UWSA, long accused of running a lucrative drugs business, tried to polish its image by preparing an elaborate ceremony at which it would announce its territory to be “drugs free.” But the planned ceremony turned into a farce when the regime took exception to invitations signed in the name of a “Wa State.” Widespread skepticism had anyway greeted the “drugs free” announcement.

The Wa enjoyed close relations with former prime minister and military intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt, and the UWSA has acted as a buffer between the Burma Army and the SSA-S.

Apart from the enmity existing between the SSA-S and the regime, tensions have arisen between Rangoon and other Shan ethnic ceasefire groups following the arrest in February of Maj-Gen Sao Hso Ten, president of the Shan State Peace Council, an umbrella group comprising the SSA-N and the SSNA. He was taken into custody for participating in a meeting in Taunggyi, Shan State, along with other prominent Shan leaders, including Hkun Htun Oo and Sai Nyunt Lwin, chairman and general-secretary of the Shan Nationalities League for Democracy, and the veteran politician Shwe Ohn.