This week will be remembered as the week in which Burmese President Thein Sein was given the domestic and international legitimacy that he has sought since assuming office in March. If handled properly, all of the events of the politically-action-packed last few days could be good for the Burmese people, but it is now Thein Sein’s responsibility to ensure that this in fact is the case. First, the decision by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) to award Burma its 2014 chair was welcome news. Burma has been Asean’s troubled child since the country was accepted into the regional bloc in 1997. Hopefully, being given the chair will result in better behavior by the Burmese leaders than in the past. If this happens, then heading up Asean for a year could be one stepping stone in the Burmese government’s path towards regaining the support of its own people and reconnecting with the rest of the world. Burma had been meant to chair Asean in 2006, but the junta’s poor human rights record and heavy-handed suppression of public dissent and democratic opposition precluded it from receiving the chairmanship that year. The fact that Asean has never pressured any other country to bypass its turn for the chair for political reasons shows to what extreme depths the Burmese regime had fallen. When Burma was first admitted to Asean, one of the primary arguments in favor of accepting the then ruthless authoritarian military regime into the fold was to keep Burma out of China’s sphere of influence. This did not work out as planned, however, because Burma is notable as being the Southeast Asian country most predominantly under the dragon’s sway. Even those that have advocated isolating the repressive Burmese regime would admit that the more Burma was shunned by the international community, the more China was able to waltz in, gobble up resources and throw its considerable weight around. As a result, Burma became almost literally dependent on China, a fact that neither the pro-democracy opposition nor the ruling military leaders (except those generals and cronies who made out like bandits with Chinese money) were happy about. As a result, it became an open secret that Burma’s current leaders wanted to repair their strained relations with Washington and put some breathing space between themselves and China. In recent months, the Burmese foreign minister has visited Washington D.C. and US diplomats have made several trips to Naypyidaw. In addition, Thein Sein sent a clear signal that his administration would not bow down to China when he suspended the Chinese-backed Myitsone Dam project. Zaw Htay, the director of Thein Sein’s office, wrote in the Washington Post this week: “What the West must realize is that in today’s geopolitical situation, particularly given the rise of China, it needs Myanmar [Burma]. Washington and others must help facilitate Myanmar’s connection to the outside world at this critical juncture. My president’s cancellation of the Beijing-backed Myitsone Dam signaled to the world what he stands for. If the United States neglects this opportunity, Washington will part ways with the new order in the Indochina region.” However, contrary to Zaw Htay’s arrogant and propagandist implication that the new Burmese government is somehow the engine of a “new order” in Southeast Asia and the US needs to board the train before it leaves the station, the Burmese leaders are fully aware that the US is in fact the power making a big push in the Asia Pacific region and Burma must sprint to catch up—at least to the level of the lowest common denominator of its Asean peers—or risk falling so far out of sight they will never be able to recover. Before landing in Bali, US President Barack Obama spoke to the Australian Parliament and declared: “The United States is a Pacific power, and we are here to stay.” This message was a blunt challenge to China’s clout in the region, and while unmistakably directed at Beijing it has significant implications for Burma as well. Since there was already a general feeling among the Burmese population that it is time to find a counterbalance to China and reintegrate into the world community, Obama’s statement and the award of the Asean chairmanship provide the opportunity to do just that. However, if Thein Sein and his new government are truly serious about becoming a respected member of the international community, it must first put its own house in order. And while it may have opened a few windows to let in some fresh air and tidied up a bit over the last few months, the nominally civilian government has yet to make the more significant structural repairs that are necessary—of which there is a long list. Burma still has thousands of political prisoners, ongoing human rights abuses, conflict in ethnic regions and the absence of the rule of law. While these problems will not be solved overnight, the president and his colleagues must clearly demonstrate the political will to take concrete action—rather than just making promises in speeches and meetings—to tackle Burma’s deep-seated ills that deprive its citizens of the most basic minimum human rights expected in a democratic country. The Burmese government should immediately release all political prisoners and end human rights abuses by the military in ethnic areas, as there is absolutely no reason to continue to detain prisoners or tolerate abuses for one day longer, and doing so undercuts everything Thein Sein proclaims to be striving for. In addition, before hosting the 2014 Asean summit, the Burmese government should establish a long-lasting peace with the country’s ethnic groups, create an independent judiciary that will uphold the rule of law, pass laws to protect human rights and eliminate those that have been used in the past to suppress them, and create a level political playing field for the run-up to the 2015 election. If these basic actions have been taken by that time, then it will prove correct those who argued that giving Burma the Asean chair would help the country make further reforms. But if the reform process now stalls and come 2014 Burma’s gulags are still stuffed with political prisoners, activists are still being detained based on politically motivated pretenses and sent to jail by kangaroo courts, and fighting and human rights abuses continue in ethnic areas, then the credibility not just of Burma, but of Asean, will have sunk to new depths. In order to keep that from happening, all of the domestic and international players seeking to engage the new Burmese government should refrain from wearing rose-colored glasses and stick to their principles and pragmatism. For example, the US should not abandon Obama’s dual-track combination of principled engagement and maintaining sanctions until more concrete and substantial reforms have been made. Washington has just commensurately rewarded Naypyidaw for the steps it has taken thus far by not openly opposing the Asean chair and by announcing that it will send US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Burma, the first time such a high level US official has visited the country in decades. In his press statement, Obama said, “Last night, I spoke to Aung San Suu Kyi, directly, and confirmed that she supports American engagement to move this process forward. So today, I've asked Secretary Hillary Clinton to go to Burma. She will be the first American Secretary of State to travel to the country in over half a century, and she will explore whether the United States can empower a positive transition in Burma and begin a new chapter between our countries.” Obama sent a strong and important signal both to Naypyidaw and the Burmese pro-democracy movement by publicly stating that he personally spoke to Aung San Suu Kyi and asked whether she supports the engagement policy and his intent to send Clinton to Burma. The US president also said that after years of darkness in Burma, “we've seen flickers of progress in these last several weeks.” He acknowledged the importance of the dialogue that has begun between the government and Suu Kyi, the release of some political prisoners and the relaxation of some media restrictions. But Obama also pointedly said that Thein Sein and the Burmese Parliament have yet to take some of the most significant steps on the path toward democratic reform and the protection of human rights, and until that happens, the sanctions will remain in place. “If Burma fails to move down the path of reform, it will continue to face sanctions and isolation,” Obama said. “But if it seizes this moment, then reconciliation can prevail, and millions of people may get the chance to live with a greater measure of freedom, prosperity, and dignity. And that possibility is too important to ignore.” Finally, to cap off a week packed with significance for Burma, Suu Kyi and the NLD today decided to re-register as a political party and contest in the upcoming by-elections. This is also comes as welcome news, because the NLD and Suu Kyi are clearly supported by a majority of the Burmese people and they should therefore take part in the political process. In addition, the presence of Suu Kyi and the NLD in Parliament will shine a spotlight on everything that happens in Naypyidaw. The NLD will be able to introduce reform bills and the government will either have to adopt them, explain to the public and international community why they refuse to do so, or suppress the opposition and be seen as a fraud. Likewise with NLD calls for transparency in government and a budget that reflects the people’s priorities. The ball is now in Thein Sein’s court. He and his colleagues have been handed the legitimacy they craved, and now they must behave like a legitimate government and take the actions necessary to raise the political and human rights environment to a level expected of responsible partners in the world community. We know that change in Burma can sometimes occur in a frustratingly slow and gradual manner, and we are not expecting a perfectly reformed Burma to instantly appear. Nevertheless, President Thein Sein must now prove the skeptics wrong and demonstrate clearly, by instituting major reforms as soon as possible, that what has happened up until now was not just window dressing, but rather the beginning of a true path towards democracy and the respect for human rights in Burma. |
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