Let me be clear that Burma’s new Parliament will not pave the way for change; nor will “disciplinary democracy flourish.” It is very much a hush-hush affair in military style—even choosing its own puppet to run the show. It is a show of cowards and clowns roaming the Parliament.

This week, the puppet master Snr-Gen Than Shwe was making his move. The senior general kept his thoughts to himself until the last minute, keeping everyone guessing who the president and vice-president will be. There are some surprises though.

Gen Shwe Mann is out of favor—he is now the chairman of the Lower House. Prime Minister Thein Sein and Tin Aung Myint Oo were nominated to be vice-presidents. Last month, a journalist friend told me that Thein Sein was the likely candidate to become president. And so it has come to pass.

As a token gesture, an ethnic Shan—Sai Mauk Kham, a little known politician from the junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP)—was elected as one of three vice-presidents. This confirmed earlier speculation that the regime would appoint someone from an ethnic region to be vice-president. Burma’s first president in 1948 was Shan.

If we were betting on Shwe Mann to become president, then we were all betting on the wrong horse. Shwe Mann was exposed long ago.

Did Than Shwe lose trust in him?

Some even speculated that there was an internal rift between two wives. What happened between Than Shwe's wife Kyaing Kyaing and Shwe Mann's wife Khin Lay Thet? 

Khin Lay Thet often babysits Than Shwe's grandchildren and runs errands for his daughters. This helped Shwe Mann rise to the rank of joint chief of staff of the army, navy and air force.

Remember that since 1997, Than Shwe has brought many of his trusted officers to the War Office, including Gen Soe Win, Gen Thein Sein, Gen Thura Shwe Mann, Gen Tin Aung Myint Oo and Gen Tin Aye. Except for Gen Soe Win, who was prime minister until he died in 2007, the rest are still there.

Shwe Mann is no saint. He has used his position to increase his family's wealth. Two of his sons set up a company, Ayer Shwe Wah, which monopolizes the lucrative import and export business. It is entirely impossible to believe that Than Shwe doesn’t know anything of Shwe Mann and his sons' business. Some say the senior general is known to be upset with his business connection. There were spin-doctors who in the past said that Shwe Mann is the one who would reform the economy once he became president.

There is a rumor circulating in Burma that Kyaing Kyaing is upset with Khin Lay Thet. Inside sources speculate that Than Shwe and Kyaing Kyaing thought Khin Lay Thet spoiled their children and grandchildren, who became increasingly unpopular in Burma.

Remember what happened between Kyaing Kyaing and Dr Khin Win Shwe, the wife of intelligence chief Gen Khin Nyunt? Many would agree family relations play a key role in Burma’s power dynamics.

But who knew that Than Shwe trusted Thein Sein enough to make him president? Until last week, no one was sure who he was thinking to select.

Thein Sein is a loyal officer and known to be an administrator. He has served under Than Shwe in the War Office since the early 1990s. With Than Shwe’s blessings, he rapidly rose through the ranks.

Born on April 21, 1945, Thein Sein is known to be less corrupt than many other generals, such as Shwe Mann and Tin Aung Myint Oo. He is not that controversial compared to many other top-ranking generals. But once he reaches the top, more dirt on Thein Sein will likely emerge.

Thein Sein is known to take no initiative but will wait for orders from his boss, Than Shwe. At 66, he is believed to be suffering from heart disease and wanting to retire. But the puppet master asked him to stay on. If Burma becomes chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in the near future, Thein Sein is the best choice to present the new regime.

It is Than Shwe’s technique to play moderates off of hardliners. If Thein Sein is soft, Tin Aung Myint Oo is a fire-breathing dragon and notoriously corrupt. He has a foul mouth and many officers resent him. But this is useful. Than Shwe usually keeps a villain in the regime to serve his own interests. He can always hide behind the villain.

The bonus to Than Shwe, who just turned 78 this month, is that Thein Sein and Tin Aung Myint Oo are at loggerheads.

Is history repeating itself? Remember that Than Shwe silently sat and watched the bitter fight between intelligence and infantry factions until 2002 before he stepped in. He benefited from a fierce power struggle between Gen Khin Nyunt and Gen Maung Aye. To remain the puppet master, Than Shwe needs to keep two rivals at the top. He won’t leave soon. This is his way of preserving his absolute power.

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