In 2006, Irrawaddy journalist Kyaw Zwa Moe wrote an article speculating who would be the president of Burma in the future. The article, Burma's Future President?, which was published in the Nov. issue of Irrawaddy Magazine in 2006, is republished below.

Is this man Burma’s next president? No one knows for certain, but the decision undoubtedly rests in the hands of Snr-Gen Than Shwe, who has ruled the nation like a monarch for 14 years.

Sources close to the military say Lt-Gen Thein Sein has been tapped as the future president of a nation ruled exclusively by the military since 1988. While the wisdom of his selection might be debatable, the logic is not far off the mark.

Lt-Gen Thein Sein (Illustration: Harn Lay)

Than Shwe’s retirement has been the subject of much speculation, as has been his reluctance to leave Maung Aye—age 67, and reported to suffer from prostate cancer—as his successor.

Defense Services Academy graduate Thein Sein was named general staff officer at the War Office in Rangoon in 1992 and then head of the Triangle Regional Command—considered one of the most vital in the Burmese military—in 2001. Later that year, he became adjutant-general of the War Office. His rapid rise to the third-highest post in the SPDC—comprising only 12 of Burma’s top military leaders—is a sure sign that he is Than Shwe’s “inside man.”

A new line-up of top rulers is thought to have been discussed during the latest military leaders’ meeting in Naypyidaw that ended on September 17. In a statement signed by Thein Sein the day after the meeting, new guidelines were initiated for local administrative bodies using representatives from the General Administration Department, the Ministry of Home Affairs and the Ministry of National Planning and Economic Development.

The document, obtained by The Irrawaddy, urges new non-military representatives to prepare for assuming the highest administrative positions in the future. New guidelines also require local leaders to be educated, well regarded and between 35 and 45 years of age. This shift in policy is the first since the current regime took power in 1988, and while minor in nature, Thein Sein appears to be spearheading it.

In September, Agence France Presse reported that Than Shwe would ultimately be replaced as the military’s commander-in-chief by current Joint Chief of Staff Gen Thura Shwe Mann. If Thein Sein then becomes president—nominally the head of a civilian-style government—then Than Shwe would have shed two of his titles, and would be free to define his own role in Burma’s future.

Most analysts agree that Than Shwe will eventually hand power to trusted loyalists, either because of age, ill health or to protect his family and legacy under a future administration. Some argue that any transfer of power would be merely honorary. Under any future title he chooses to adopt, Than Shwe is expected to retain absolute control of the country until his death.

What seems certain, however, is that any changes are unlikely to have much effect on the country’s democratic and ethnic opposition groups. A military junta, by any other name—or with an acting president—is still a junta.