Burma's year is off to a grim start, thanks to the country's ruling junta.

In a year that is supposed to mark a major political transition, the regime has moved quickly to snuff out any glimmer of hope for real change. We now know what to expect in 2010: harsh punishment for those who cross the generals, and rich rewards for those who work with them to keep the country under their control. In other words—more of the same.

On Jan. 6, a court in Insein Prison sentenced ex-major Win Naing Kyaw, a former aide to Lt-Gen Tin Oo, the junta's late Secretary Two, and Thura Kyaw, of the foreign affairs department, to death under Section 3 of the State Emergency Act. At the same time, it sentenced a clerk from the foreign affairs department to 15 years imprisonment for violation of the Electronics Act, which prohibits sending information, photos and videos damaging to the government via the Internet.

Their crime was leaking military secrets to the exiled media. Specifically, they were found guilty of sending information and photos about a secret trip to North Korea by Gen Shwe Mann, the third most powerful general in the regime. The trip, which took place in late 2008, involved arms procurement and  an agreement with Pyongyang for technical assistance in the construction of secret tunnels in remote regions of Burma.
 
Earlier, it was learned that 25-year-old video journalist Hla Hla Win and her assistant were thrown behind bars for 26 years for attempting to smuggle video footage of the country's situation to the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma.

Meanwhile, there have also been reports of continuing cronyism in Burma. The state-run newspaper Myanmar Ahlin reported that the government had awarded a major contract for construction of two hydro-power plants to the Htoo Trading Company, owned by Tay Za, a close associate of junta leader Snr-Gen Than Shwe and his family.

These are inauspicious signs, indeed. With an election expected to take place later this year, we are all still very much in the dark about the country's political situation. The junta has set no date for the election, nor has it promulgated any law allowing political parties to form. No one has any idea when the campaign will begin or who will be permitted to run.

“The current political situation is like the blind groping in the darkness,” said Khin Maung Swe, a spokesperson for the National League for Democracy (NLD), speaking by phone from the party's headquarters in Rangoon's Shwegondaing Township.
 
His words hold true not just for dissidents and political groups, but also for the majority of people in Burma. Only the generals themselves have any idea what the junta's plans are.

All we can say for certain is that the regime sees the 2010 election more than just part of an exit strategy. It also intends to use it to lay the foundation for the military's long-term domination of Burma's political system. After the election, the 2008 Constitution will come into force, ensuring the military a 25 percent share of the seats in parliament.

On Jan. 4, in his speech to mark the country’s Independence Day, Than Shwe stated: “Plans are underway to hold elections in a systematic way this year.”

“The entire population has to make the correct choice,” he added, offering no guarantee that the election would be free, fair and open, as the international community has demanded.   

As for the NLD, it remains firmly committed to its Shwegondaing declaration, which calls for a review of the Constitution, political dialogue between the junta and opposition groups, and the release of more than 2,000 political prisoners, including party leader Aung San Suu Kyi, who has been detained for more than 14 of the past 20 years.

The current dark cloud in politics has left several main ethnic groups wondering whether they should  even consider forming political parties to participate in the upcoming election.

“We will not found a political party, much less take part in the election, if the government doesn't review the 2008 Constitution,” said 76-year-old veteran journalist and politician Thar Ban, the acting chairman of the Arakan League for Democracy, which won 11 seats in western Arakan State in the 1990 election and was later abolished.

“We were cheated once. We don't want to be cheated again,” said Thar Ban, who was put in jail twice, for a total of 12 years.

Leaders from a coalition of 12 ethnic parties based inside Burma have stood together with Thar Ban. The ethnic coalition, known as the United Nationalities Alliance, won 67 seats in the 1990 election. What they complain about mainly is the lack of equality and autonomy for ethnic people in the 2008 Constitution.

Although most political groups in Burma agree that the regime's political process is too flawed to participate in, there is a small minority who take a different view.

Even in the absence of electoral laws and an election date, a small group of dissidents has decided that the election is the only game in town. A few months ago, veteran politician Thu Wai formed the Democratic Party. However, the party has not yet been registered.

“Anyone expecting to contest the election is not allowed to do anything yet,” he said. His party is supported by the daughter of former Prime Minister U Nu.  

Thu Wai, who was also put in jail in the mid-1990s for his political activities, sees demanding dialogue with the junta as just a waste of time.

“If discussions are possible, it is good. But if they are not possible, why should we be wasting time?” Thu Wai told The Irrawaddy in a recent interview. “Only in a legal parliament can we secure the right to criticize what we don't like and to engage in politics.”

The crucial problem is that the game is never fair, not even to a minimal degree. Players—even those who view the election positively—are never allowed to participate in the whole process. Undemocratic and irregular rules drive them out of the game.

This is supposed to be a year in which great things will happen. Yet we haven't seen any movement in a positive direction. Like it or not, however, this is the country's political process.

Even developments from last year, such as the meetings between US officials and the junta and meetings between Suu Kyi and Than Shwe's liaison officer and Western diplomats, are losing momentum.

The news over the past couple of weeks is an indication of what kind of result we can expect from the election.

The ethnic leader Thar Ban concluded his interview with The Irrawaddy by saying: “We are in the middle of a storm far from shore. The election will be just like lightning: It won't provide enough light to help us find our way.”