Burma Talk

Burma expert Bertil Lintner shares his views on the country’s political condition. Bertil Lintner is regarded by many as the most authoritative Western voice on Burma. But these days his articles on Burma appear less frequently in the Far Eastern Economic Review, for whom he has written for the last 20 years. Has he lost interest in Burma? No. The Swedish journalist still keeps his eyes on Burma from his home in northern Thailand. But for journalists there is not much going on in Burma, he says. "The only thing [to write] about was whether Razali was going to Burma or not," Lintner said, referring to UN special envoy Razali Ismail. The emphasis on such shallow news tired him. He has thus expanded the area he covers for the Hong-Kong based magazine. Today, Burma is only one of the several places he follows when writing on regional security issues, insurgency and increasingly, affairs in North Korea. His most recent book, Blood Brothers, dealt with crime syndicates in Asia. He is currently working on a book about North Korea. Lintner also wrote five investigative books about Burma, on subjects ranging from the country’s democracy movement to ethnic insurgency and drug trafficking. He still keeps up-to-date on Burma. But little of the news he shares is good. He feels the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) party is ineffective at present because its leadership was decimated after the attack on Aung San Suu Kyi and her supporters on May 30. Most of the party’s executives have been in detention since that day and its offices have been closed by the government. In light of such circumstances, he doesn’t agree with those who make comparisons between the NLD and the Africa National Congress (ANC) from South Africa. Unlike the NLD, the ANC was strong, well organized and able to conduct party business more easily. When Nelson Mandela was in prison, other people in the ANC were able to carry on with the movement. But the NLD is different. "Without Suu Kyi, the NLD is nothing," Lintner said. "She is the symbol." He quoted an Indian diplomat in Rangoon who said "Suu Kyi is a saint," and compared her with India’s Mahatma Gandhi. Lintner agreed with the diplomat that Suu Kyi is always right in principal, but Lintner questioned her political shrewdness and ability to manipulate the other side as Gandhi did so adeptly. Lintner also thinks the NLD and the opposition movement missed an important opportunity to achieve their goal of a democratic Burma. Burma could have changed in 1990 right after the NLD’s landslide election victory, he believes. The NLD should have called for mass action to install the elected government, a move he feels would have been successful. However, the party failed to mobilize the people at a critical juncture. Such an opportunity will probably never arise again, he says. The respected writer sees two possible scenarios which could break Burma’s current deadlock. The first is the enactment of multilateral sanctions by nations and international bodies which are unified in their approach to Burma. The multilateral alliance can include the United Nations, the European Union and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, he said. But he is skeptical about current UN efforts. "They all seem to believe that everyone will participate in talks, but is that realistic?" he asked, shaking his head. A crack within the military could also lead to change, Lintner believes. Therefore, attention should be paid to Burma’s secretive leadership. But it is also wrong to focus on a possible rift between hardline and moderate factions within the armed forces. "They all are hardliners," he said. "The military will hang on." Lintner doesn’t think that the newly appointed Prime Minister, Gen Khin Nyunt, belongs to a moderate faction, as others have stated. The perception comes from the idea that among Burma’s top three leaders—Sr-Gen Than Shwe, Gen Khin Nyunt and Gen Maung Aye—Khin Nyunt is the most engaging with foreigners, according to Lintner. But he cautions against inferring that Khin Nyunt’s willingness to be the junta’s public face means he is inclined to listen to outside opinions. "Khin Nyunt likes to manipulate foreigners," he said. On the issue of foreign aid, Lintner said aid presently benefits the government more than the people. "If there is no transparency and accountability then aid is a problem," he said. As an example, he recalled when UNICEF sent planeloads of medicine to Rangoon to help those wounded during the 1988 uprising. The medicine was intercepted by the Army before it could reach the victims. Jumping to the topic of drugs, Lintner had much to say. His expertise on drugs in Burma is well known and his comments are often at odds with assessments offered by the Burmese government and international anti-drug organizations.