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COMMENTARY
Is Than Shwe Still Pulling the Strings?
By AUNG ZAW Friday, December 9, 2011


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But he’s like a parent to me.”

In 1990, after student activists from Rangoon high schools ripped down Ne Win’s image from their headmasters' offices, Ne Win put a personal announcement in state-run newspapers instructing that his picture should be removed from government buildings.

This fueled speculation that Ne Win was finally relinquishing power, but then in 1992 he gave the order to fire Saw Maung and install Than Shwe at the helm of SLORC when Saw Maung began giving eccentric speeches and behaving strangely in public.

Although not directly involved in the day-to-day workings of the regime, Ne Win continued to pull the strings of power throughout the 1990s, even instigating a mini-coup of corrupt second-tier generals in 1997 upon his return from a trip to visit his counterpart General Suharto in Indonesia.

Despite Ne Win’s advanced age, the ex-dictator still wielded enough power and influence that Than Shwe needed him and his family out of the way in order to consolidate his own grip on the regime. So in 2002, Than Shwe’s junta accused the aged Ne Win of conspiring to stage a coup and placed him under house arrest, while his son-in-law and grandsons were thrown in prison on charges of treason.

It is not difficult to find similarities between Ne Win’s supposed retirement in 1988 and Than Shwe’s supposed retirement in 2011, especially if one remembers that in 1989-1990 there was a campaign and a free and fair election that for a brief moment brought hope to the Burmese people, only to have that hope dashed when the junta refused to honor the election results.

Therefore, regardless of what senior officials in the Burmese government are now saying in public, and regardless of the fact that Than Shwe—who was always reclusive—has all but disappeared from public view, many Burmese people believe that the former junta chief is still well-informed, watching closely and willing to pull the levers of power when necessary.

Logic says they have a point, because it defies logic to believe that a demonstrably paranoid control-freak such as Than Shwe—who had personally put his predecessor and mentor under house arrest—would suddenly step completely away from power and put blind trust in his appointed successors to take good care of his personal safety, assets and legacy.

It should also be remembered that Than Shwe is a master political chess player who first manipulated himself into the position of dictator and then for years manipulated the international community through PR moves and promises of reform. He even managed to hide the fact that he was spending a large chunk of the nation’s cash resources to build the new capital Naypyidaw in the jungles of central Burma, not to mention the possibly hundreds of millions of dollars he and his cohorts in crime siphoned from the state coffers.

Because there remains no transparency or accountability in the Burmese government, regardless of whether or not Than Shwe is making day-to-day decisions for the state, he will have no qualms about influencing the current administration when it suits his desires, and to assume otherwise is both unnecessary and foolish.

There are several explanations as to why Than Shwe would step out of the spotlight and operate behind the scenes in this manner. One reason may be to cut off any momentum towards an “Arab Spring” type of uprising in Burma and avoid the fate of Mubarak or even worse, Gaddafi. But what may be the most convincing reason would also explain why government officials took such great pains to send the message, just before Clinton’s arrival, that the ex-strongman had officially retired.

The US government made it very clear before the 2010 election that it was unacceptable for Than Shwe to remain in power by donning civilian garb, and if Clinton picked up the scent that he was still running the show there would be no chance that the US would lift sanctions anytime soon. There is probably nobody who stands to economically benefit more from the removal of Western sanctions than Than Shwe and his family.

It therefore rings true when military insiders report that although the former junta general has “retired” from the front page of the newspapers, he still acting as if he is commander-in-chief of the armed forces and enjoys enormous power. These insiders say that Than Shwe is surrounded by the senior army officers who served him in the past, can summon current commander-in-chief Gen Min Aung Hlaing, President Thein Sein, Vice President Tin Aung Myint Oo and Lower House Speaker Shwe Mann whenever he wishes, and even his aides have direct access to top government officials.

Although Than Shwe is too clever to leave any fingerprints, circumstantial evidence of his involvement in major government decisions can still be found.

For example, before the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) summit, Burmese government officials sent out clear messages that another batch of political prisoners would soon be released.



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COMMENTS (24)
 
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Fred Wrote:
21/12/2011
There is less of a concern as to who is steering the ship when it is traveling in a favorable direction. If it continues traveling in a nice direction, such issues will sort themselves out favorably.

Bill Gov Wrote:
18/12/2011
Of course, he is still pulling the strings..this is for sure.

Norman Hla Wrote:
15/12/2011
Arrogant Russian Putin appears again so there is up-rising. Shwe Man and Ant phobia minister need to re-assure than shwe’s studying. Than shwe is very busy for praying Chinese Buddhist statue so being unable to meet H Clinton. Those show that than shwe is still sitting on the self-make bama throne. Than shwe’s education as well as ethics and moral are very low so he also appoint the other rulers(see their cheating words) lower than him for his safety. Than shwe also counts that the present rulers are coward(puppets-yes man) enough in order to balance the power among them( see- the posts of ming aung laing, shwe man,tin aung myint oo, thein sein) and to prevent revolution against him. No developed country will accept rich than shwe and his for escape and asylum because of their brutality on his own people. So, what than shwe’s studying is how to become the next bama king again. His 3 bama brutal kings’ statues in Nay-Pyi-Daw are the signs of his greatest wish to be included him as a bama military thug in Burma history.

Norman Hla Wrote:
15/12/2011
Than shwe is now starting to dig a well for water to get democracy for Burma. Thein sein admits his premature to learn from China for democracy. All need to come for praying than shwe as their God father regularly. Designed Nargis 2008 constitution and all retired military can be their military again within 5 years. Aung Zaw pointed above. Use the military intelligent security instead of his personals body guards while than shwe’s going out.

TheinWin Wrote:
14/12/2011
This Govt is a Puppet Government.

Max Wrote:
14/12/2011
The state-run press says Than Shwe is retired, so Aung Zaw has to say, "Well, maybe he isn't". He then proceeds to spew out 2,000 words of speculation, complete with the usual potted history about Ne Win.

The fact is Aung Zaw doesn't know any more about this than anyone else. It's safe to assume that Than Shwe is probably involved in the background, but unless you have some new information, why bother going on about it ad nauseum?


kerry Wrote:
14/12/2011
Very few dictators in the modern world who move vast sums of money gained through losses of human lives escape karmically to live peaceful lives.

Corrupt Westerners do move money, but they die too, and things fall apart.

I seriously doubt that Than Shwe and his family and others will ever get visas to travel to, and enjoy their cruel ill-gotten wealth at, many places other than Dubai, Singapore and Beijing.

Than Shwe had his chance at directly effecting great changes openly, and blew it. He held on too long, like the fabled Monkey's Paw. He alone is responsible for any deaths and the health of all political prisoners, among others.

Leon Nicholls died a horrible death, also his responsibility, and Michael Aris was prevented from visiting his wife when dying. Than Shwe has left generations of karma for his tragic and spoilt family. Just thinking about all the the lives lost gives me the shivers.

Heller Wrote:
12/12/2011
Nobody believes his activities and never trust what he does. We know well he is a wicked man on us and horrible gun.

We believe, he is still pulling the strings on the new make up government. We never believe them and careful them forever.
They are selfish and no kindness. I believe that their result of last exam is the hell.
They love the evil and they will go soon their hell paradise.

I wish all the people.If you do the evil action, you'll see the same reaction. This is the truth.

HELLER

WM Wrote:
12/12/2011
From your Title “Is Than Shwe Still Pulling the Strings?” it seems you would be able to answer “yes” or “no” OR can say something with some evidence. But when I read it, it’s quite disappointing- only speculations and guesses. You do not give much new evidence or facts but some of your thoughts why senior general would not give up power.

Terry Evans Wrote:
12/12/2011
Secrecy is the freedom tyrants dream of.

Hlamyint Wrote:
12/12/2011
This is past & future true story.

One important thing average ordinary Burmese people need to know is:
We all knew Ne Win was lousy leader for us. 1) We all noticed nobody cry when he died.

2) Ne Win trained Than Shwe
to be 100% worst than him for Ordinary people.

3) Than Shwe trained his top 100 Leaders to be 100% worst them him in DSA.

Present changes for Santion to be lifted for better economy & future of ordinary Burmese:

When Than Shwe, top 100 Generals & their relatives & closed friends get one million, ordinary Burmese will earn ONE kyat because they are holding top Businesses in Burma at the moment.

Good Luck for hoping better life to All ordinary Burmese people. ( Keep hoping for better life next 50 yrs equal to today 2011 Thai & S'pore ordinary people life ). Hope is everyone daily wish to happen better life SINCE 1962.

Zaw Min Wrote:
10/12/2011
Another extremely good and thoughtful article. Thanks a lot Irrawaddy in particular and Aung Zaw specifically. You and Irrawaddy is definitely one of the important pillars for our country and people that we are all trying to rebuild to its worthy pride and dignity. Thanks again and best wishes for speedy success in reaching the destination that we all are striving for.

Nyunt Shwe Wrote:
10/12/2011
Are you sure usd 1300+11 rubies+1 pearl+61 diamond studded gold ring only worth 488,000 kyats?

Should we care that much who is behind the power as we move to democracy. If the players were patience and tactful, I don't think the regime is going to turn the tide. Of course, every one of us knows that he is behind the power in some ways, this is very understandable. Don't forget that the regime is betting this game with its life, dignity, and wealth and if you were in its place, you will behave or do the same thing. No authoritarian countries has changed over night except Cuba and Nicaragua. Even Argentina whose junta collapsed didn't change over night. Please be patient, but don't instil distrust in the hearts of the players. Think about opening your HQ in Yangon now!

Moe Aung Wrote:
10/12/2011
He still wants to take his wife and family on a pilgrimage to Paris, London and New York, to Champs-Elysées, Oxford Street and Manhattan. Bodh Gaya was just a photo op.

The instrument to wield real power is not parliament, not the president, nor Min Aung Hlaing, but the National Defense and Security Council controlled by Than Shwe we were all led to believe. http://www2.irrawaddy.com/article.php?art_id=20958

Nyi Nyi Wrote:
10/12/2011
The simple question is why should Than Shwe give up his power easily for nothing when his position was not in danger? The simple answer is of course he did not give up his power. He simply put a plan to secure his life and his family, and his enormous wealth. That is why we are seeing these "reforms" but soon we will discover these reforms are limited. As long as he is alive Burma will never see a true democracy.

Peter Ole Kvint Wrote:
10/12/2011
I must assure all readers that a doll can only be moved by a puppeteer.

Ohn Wrote:
10/12/2011
Where goes all your effusive "Reform" crap Aung Zaw? Which particular book is Than Shwe reading in his retirement? Kyaw San wouldn't have a clue even where Than Shwe is.

The BS of military lying to the public and the international community was tremendously enhanced by mindless support of so-called "exile media outlets" and Aung San Suu Kyi.

Wake up and face the truth.

The Kachins are dying in hundreds everyday in most horrible ways. That blood is on the hand of the people of the rest of the country who do not vocally object but even praise the killers!

The "Peace deals" are business deals.

And the opening is simply to entice more money from more sources. Chinese with their ruthless, cruel ways are becoming stifling even for Than Shwe. That's all.

There has never been people's victory over the Myitsone dam as idiots imagined.

shwe moe Wrote:
10/12/2011
Like Duncan in Macbeth - Than Shwe spirit hovers around like a bad omen which needs to be flushed down the toilet - and that is... give him no mention; not even if he croaked, let him just rot away.

Maung Maung Wrote:
10/12/2011
Dear Ko Aung Zaw,
Your analysis on Than Shwe's hiding is most logical and likely that I agree totally. But will the US and Europeans leaders see the same for lifting the sanctions on Burma will benefit the senior general and his cronies the most. I'm intrigued by the latest moves of Than Shwe's close ally U Tayza. What about you?

Tettoe Aung Wrote:
10/12/2011
If history can be used as a fall-back then your suspicion that Than Shwe hasn't totally removed himself could be correct. One thing that I'm watching is if there be any meeting between Daw Suu and the two retired generals. Remember she requested the meeting when she met Thein Sein? If you look at what happening to all they dictators there is no such thing as 'quiet retirement'. They must be worried that the law of karma is going to catch up with them. Can they escape from the fate they gave to their benefactor U Ne Win? We'll just have to wait and see. How are people going to get the social catharsis without going through some process of 'truth and reconcialiation'? The demands for 'war crimes prosecutions' are now growing in the mainstream, can we become 'bystanders of genocide' even after changes and political reforms have taken root? I doubt it.

Frank Thaung Oo Wrote:
10/12/2011
The best article of current political situation and the author hits the bull eye. It is factual and logical, well done job.

Aung Aung Wrote:
10/12/2011
Focusing whole group of current and ex-generals together with TSein govt than TShwe alone would be comprehensive. They have different role to play dirty tricks for the same goal- buying time. Because, they have comitted sins together, are guys on the same boat.

The recent changes are real but they do not represent “workable” one. It is a trick making you happy but you can’t apply it. The worst, as a report warned: Rights abuses remain "systemic, deeply entrenched and vast in scale" in Burma today.

Despite a crafty group they can’t beat their Oppositions, who always know their “mischief” before they play. What either TShwe or TSein or any guy maneuvering will be countered in the end, because their playing cards are too old to be affected.

It is clear that the group can’t buy unlimitted time. The Opposition will dictate them speeding up reforms shortly. They can’t say”no” because TShwe and TSein aware they are loosers already. Otherwise, reform wheel roll over them without mercy.

A.M.O Wrote:
10/12/2011
Well, the way Shwe Mann pull up this issue, in an interview, is showing their own guilty consciousness of Gen Than Shwe meddling in affairs of Thein Sein administration.

Very obvious thing, is why Gen Than Shwe & Gen Maung Aye never move out of Naypyidaw - whereby these guys have their own houses in Yangon.

And these guys are really worried they might get the same fate of their former boss Gen Ne Win who was terminated by them in an unceremonious end.

Remember ! You guys ! What goes up must come down no matter what ! Hm ?

Good reading, Aung Zaw !

timothy Wrote:
10/12/2011
Once upon the time, a king called Mindon of Burma asked the visiting French diplomat whether the outgoing French Prime minister was well enough to escape the persecution, which was and still the the whole truth nothing but the truth the ways dictatorial kings and generals of Burma ends, of course for most of the brutal Asian politics.
It is naive to believe what the lies nothing but the lies came out from the filthy mouths of the murderous generals. In deed they can not trust each others and that is the recipe for the violent unnatural death of dictators when they retire. I warned Gen Thein Sein to cooperate with people to escape from this ill cycles/

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