China and Burma: No Longer Birds of a Feather?

In May, newly "elected" Burmese President Thein Sein flew to Beijing to meet with Chinese leaders. The trip, his first state visit as president of Burma, was intended to upgrade the China-Burma relationship.

In that respect, Thein Sein’s trip was a success. While he was in Beijing, the two nations agreed to forge a comprehensive "strategic partnership" of cooperation, and Chinese prime minster Wen Jiabao declared after the meeting that, "The partnership is bound to push forward bilateral friendly cooperation in all areas to a new stage."

At the time, there were no doubts that China remained firmly behind the Burmese regime following the November 2010 sham election—whether they wore civilian clothes or a military uniform, Burma’s ruling leaders knew they could count on Beijing’s unequivocal support in the international arena.

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected].

Last week, however, Thein Sein dropped a bombshell by announcing the decision of his new government to suspend Burma’s controversial Myitsone Dam project, which has China as its main investor.

While most of the Burmese population applauded the bold move as having saved the Irrawaddy River and reflected the will of the people, it left some political pundits scratching their heads and wondering whether it was a rational decision given that it could greatly anger Burma’s massive neighbor to the north.

Thein Sein is generally viewed as a politician who is sometimes indecisive when it comes to making major policy decisions, but on its face, the decision to suspend work on the Myitsone Dam was bold and risky. So many are wondering what motivated him to apparently thumb his nose at his powerful "strategic partner."

Was it a calculated move to win more friends in the West at a time that the Burmese government is seeking to reduce or eliminate sanctions and deflect a call for a UN Commission of Inquiry (CoI) into crimes against humanity?

Was it intended to demonstrate the willingness of Burma’s new government to "listen to public opinion," as Thein Sein announced in his statement to Parliament, and both preserve the integrity of the Irrawaddy River and blunt Chinese influence in Burma?

Can it be seen as a major concession to anti-dam activists and the political opposition, who were threatening to turn the issue into a cause célèbre that would unite the public and potentially incite it to rise up against the government?

All of the above?

In addition, some political observers speculate that Thein Sein’s decision was a strong political signal to the US and the EU—both of whom welcomed the announcement and remain committed to an "engagement" policy with Burma—that Burma is willing to cooperate, at least to some extent, in their efforts to pull Burma away from China’s sphere of influence.

According to news reports, the president of China Power Investment Corp., Lu Qizhou, called the suspension bewildering and said it "will lead to a series of legal issues." In addition, the Foreign Ministry in Beijing stepped in and urged Burma to protect the interests of Chinese companies.

This could indicate the start of a diplomatic row between the two nations. But despite the growing anti-China sentiment in both Burma’s general population and its new government, Burma probably does not dare to directly challenge China in a manner that will provoke the dragon’s full wrath.

Politically as well as economically, Burma still needs China. For more than two decades, Beijing has been the one backing the Burmese regime whenever it was faced with international pressure and condemnation for its brutal clampdowns on civilians and opposition forces. Particularly, anytime Burma faced a censure debate in the UN Security Council, it easily hid behind Beijing.

Therefore, Burma’s civilian regime will likely continue its dependence on China in the form of other joint megaprojects, including the controversial—and for China more strategically important—oil pipeline and railway projects across upper Burma from Shan State to Arakan State.

But it is important to remember that the greedy China needs Burma as well. Beijing has heavily invested in Burma’s energy sector and will continue to do so.