The recent bomb blasts in Rangoon and Kachin State are a wake-up call to us all, and a strong indication that the lives of innocent people are at risk in the lead-up to the general election.

So far, no one has claimed responsibility for the terrorist attacks; opposition groups in exile and the military regime accuse each other. Some analysts have said that the attacks in Rangoon and in Kachin State are separate issues, and were conducted by different groups with different agendas, aimed at different targets.

Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected]

According to a commentary in a state-run newspaper on Sunday, exiled Burmese opposition groups were responsible for the bombing of a pavilion in Rangoon during the New Year festival. The report went on to accuse the groups of providing terrorist training to migrant workers.

The article in The Mirror said, “The National League for Democracy (NLD Liberated Area), the All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF) and the Vigorous Burmese Students' Warriors (VBSW) dispatched the terrorists into the country for violent and deadly attacks.”

The exiled groups, based at the Thai-Burmese border, denied the accusation, calling it groundless and no more than an excuse to discredit the opposition. They insisted that they have never attacked the public.

Apart from the accusations of who planted the bombs, there are also a handful of theories as to who the actual targets were. A common suspicion is that Nay Shwe Thway Aung, the grandson of junta chief Snr-Gen Than Shwe, was the prime target of the Rangoon pavilion attack. If that is the case, the attack failed; he escaped while many innocent civilians and security officers were killed.

One wonders whether any group would have come out and claimed responsibility for the explosions if Nay Shwe Thway Aung had been killed.

Some independent political analysts in Rangoon do not believe the regime's version of events, but have said that there are several elements inside Burma that could be involved, including business rivalries, mafia types and an internal rift among military leaders.

The fact is that bombings and political violence are nothing new in Burma.

The country is rife with armed ethnic groups, unknown splinter groups and foreign agents who could have motives for targeting military and government personnel, and the civilians associated with them.

However, most of the armed groups along the Thai-Burmese border have been in such disarray recently—and have such a lack of funds—that it is doubtful they have the capacity, resources and intelligence network to launch such an audacious attack in the heart of Rangoon during the water festival.

Burma's political instability and internal rifts within the armed forces have provided the platform for internal or external terrorists to carry out deadly bombings in the past.

On October 9, 1983, visiting South Korean President Chun Doo-hwan narrowly escaped death when a bomb blast in Rangoon killed several of his cabinet ministers and some Burmese officials who were waiting to welcome him at the Martyr's Mausoleum. North Korean agents were unveiled as being behind the attack. The explosion took place the year after then head of state Gen Ne Win purged his trusted intelligence chief Brig-Gen Tin Oo and his entire intelligence unit. Taking advantage of security lapses, foreign agents grabbed the chance to advance their country's agenda. To regain the public's confidence, Ne Win's security personnel quickly arrested the North Korean agents before they could escape via a sea route.

In May 2005, the bombing of two supermarkets and a convention center in Rangoon killed 19 people and injured more than 160. No one claimed responsibility, but the attack came months after Burma's most feared spy master Gen Khin Nyunt and his aides were removed as a result of a power struggle between the army and intelligence factions. The regime quickly accused the exiled opposition groups of terrorism without any evidence. Just as it did this time.

We can be sure that there are many people and several groups, both inside and outside the country, that would love to see the regime leaders, or their family members, assassinated or violently overthrown.