Several guests who attended the Armed Forces Day reception in Naypyidaw on March 27 told me that when they met with Snr-Gen Than Shwe at the palatial new reception center, his handshake was firm and his look confident.
Senior army leaders reportedly whispered to guests that this was to be his last official reception––the Burmese dictator was readying to take a back seat.
Aung Zaw is founder and editor of the Irrawaddy magazine. He can be reached at [email protected]
A few hours earlier, Than Shwe had observed a military parade where he delivered a short speech. Although the senior general did not say he was planning to retire, sources told me the message was right there between the lines.
“Our armed forces were originally formed by patriotic heroes to fight for independence,” he said.
“The leaders of the armed forces turned from politicians into patriotic Tatmadaw-men when the armed struggle for independence was necessary, and they turned back into politicians engaged in national politics when the time came for political struggle,” he continued. “In this way, our armed forces has had a brilliant history of achievement both in political and in military affairs.”
I take this as a clear indication that the military is not going to quit politics, but intends to stay in the arena where it will continue to play its dual role.
Than Shwe apparently said the armed forces should have three “capabilities”: military capability, organizational capability and administrative capability.
He also said the army had a duty to assist the “gentle transition.”
Indeed, not only is a gentle transition important for the junta chief's piece of mind, but so too is a safe exit strategy for his family and himself––they are almost universally despised around the country, after all.
Mark my words, if Than Shwe opts to vacate the throne, he will make sure his most trusted lieutenants take over the reins of both the new government and the armed forces.
It's not Aung San Suu Kyi who keeps Than Shwe awake at night, but the worry of how much he can trust his subordinates and who he can entrust his family's security to.
I think the enemy is within. Than Shwe knows this; he himself played a Machiavellian hand when he purged feared spy chief Gen Khin Nyunt and betrayed his mentor, Gen Ne Win, who died while under house arrest in 2002.
Like Shakespeare's Macbeth, the junta chief may spend insomniac nights wracked by visions of daggers and the paranoid certainty that the ghosts of his past will return to seek revenge.
Than Shwe knows that several retired army officers who are loyal to different factions within the armed forces could become potential enemies. As the winds of change blow, some will most likely switch sides.
Aye Ne Win, one of Ne Win's grandsons who is now serving a life sentence, once told veteran NLD politician Win Tin when they met in Insein prison compound that he wanted to see Suu Kyi and student leader Min Ko Naing released, according to Win Tin's recently released book.
Within the establishment, there are several other powerful and influential people who would enjoy seeing Than Shwe overthrown and humiliated.
Knowing that he could also face the same karma as Ne Win or Khin Nyunt, the former postal clerk has diligently handpicked several of his former aides and staff officers to serve in key positions.
Loyal servants include: Gen “Thura” Shwe Mann, the coordinator of Special Operations, the army, navy and air force; Lt-Gen Myint Swe, the head of the Bureau of Special Operations (5); Prime Minister Gen Thein Sein; and Minister of Agriculture and Irrigation Maj-Gen Htay Oo, who is also Secretary-General of the Union Solidarity Development Association.
Than Shwe has also promoted young officers who have served him in the past. They include Lt-Gen Hla Htay Win, Maj-Gen Tin Ngwe, Maj-Gen Kyaw Swe and Maj-Gen Wai Lwin, who is now commander of the Naypyidaw region.
They are, in effect, Team Than Shwe, his faithful clansmen.
Perhaps, over the coming decade, these officers will play a key role in reshaping Burma. Their roles will change over the years––some will transfer between the armed forces and the Parliament and vice versa; some will move up in the hierarchy and some will lose favor.
Than Shwe knows how the mighty can fall; he has seen it with his own eyes.
We, United Myanmar Patriotic Front, believe that peaceful transfer of power is the essence of democracy, (which is currently being abused in Thailand.) Timothy mentioned King Mindon, half-brother of King Bagun (or Bagunmin) ancestor of our king HM King Shwebomin II, who is still waiting to go home. His Majesty believes that a peaceful transfer of power will happen if the junta follows the monarch's advice. We understand that HM has plans.
The way to go forward is not revenge but
1. forgiveness, 2.amnesty for political prisoners 3.national conciliation 4. formation of a Privy Council to deal with judicial and exchequer (meaning national budget) issues 5. economic development 6. social justice 7. education, 8. sensible foreign policy. (We understand HM has directed that Burma is a friend to every country, not aligned to any power block.)
Sen. Gen Than Shwe has protected the 'state of Burma' from disintegration and we must recognise this. Just think what disintegration could do to all.
Moe Aung Wrote:
22/04/2010
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF
My point was that Buddhists fight, kill and maim like everyone else given enough reason or provocation. I've also tried to expose the myth of so-called religious conflicts when in reality the fight is mainly about land, resources and ethnicity. Get it?
Perhaps it's you who are confusing religious philosophy and practice with religiosity and rituals. That may well be the reason behind the joke about the duochrome Burmese TV - there are only two colors: green and yellow. Jaundiced or rose-tinted glasses?
'SPDC has averted national humiliation'
That's a joke, right? The overwhelming majority of the Burmese nation would say the SPDC is the very reason for the ongoing national humiliation and disgrace.
timothy Wrote:
20/04/2010
I feel very sorry for Than Shwe for his misery and fears. The fears he created and worshipped has finally come back to haunt him miserably.
Who can he trust in his world of man-eat-man, pathetically ghost-turned groups of generals? Where is one little thing normal society got to keep everyone happy, Trust?
There is no such thing as peaceful transfer of power and retirement of out-going leader.Once King Mindon prayed for safety of retired premier of France. The envoy find it difficult to convince the King about democratic transfer of power in France.
Chairman Moa-Tse-Tung of China did not understand why president Nixon was impeached for Watergate scandal. Than Shwe could not understand his faith. He only believe in men-eat-men society. That is what haunting him right into his grave. I feel sorry for his family. Sorry. Whatever go around, come around.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
20/04/2010
Moe Aung Wrote: 15/04/2010
"Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF
I think you are confusing Garrett with Gareth. Normal for you, I guess.
Religion has been abused as an excuse from the dawn of history. Wars between different Buddhist kingdoms were far from unknown even in the Buddha's time."
WHO IS CONFUSED? a) about the name? b)about religious wars? War between buddhist kingdoms were not about religion but about territory: get it? It was never like the crusade, or even like wars between Catholics and Protstants.
What is wrong with MoeAung to see us Burmese Buddhists in such jaundiced way? Granted, BSPP was evil and SPDC mismanaged the economy and top echelon got rich whilst majority remain poor.
By the way, SPDC has averted national humiliation: of seeing the traitor woman as head of executive (one of the organs of the state. We are very happy.
Garrett Wrote:
16/04/2010
MP4 UMPF: "How stupid to suggest Buddhism can be used for corruption and greed."
How ignorant to infer that the SPDC has not taken every possible advantage of the passive nature of Buddhists.
MP4 UMPF: "Another stupidity: tatmadaw (Royal Army)is borne out of Burmese/Myanmar population, 90% Buddhist."
The only thing that is stupid is that the predominantly Buddhist Burma army is called tatmadaw because Than Shwe thinks he is the King of Burma.
However, as MP4 UMPF wrote in the 'Junta Turns Attention Back to the Jungle article':
"Our king will be guiding the incoming government after the elections as His Majesty has done to the SPDC."
Thank you for clarifying that it was London socialite Shwebomin II, pretender to the non-existant throne of Burma who advised Than Shwe to:
1)Steal Burma's resources
2)Make the Burmese people & the soldiers of the Burma army paupers
3)Persecute and enslave the Burmese ethnic minorities
4)Murder monks
Shouldn't the ICC prosecute Shwebomin II?
shwe Moe Wrote:
16/04/2010
Is This a Dagger, which I See Before Me? Yes Master, it is not optical illusion - this is we the people dagger that you see before you. It will demand a pound of flesh at the given moment, until then you will sleep with one eye open.
Ngal Hriang Wrote:
15/04/2010
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF is Myanmar Idiot 4 UMPF. He sucks and sucks and sucks and sucks. His king Than Shwe is public enemy number one.
Moe Aung Wrote:
15/04/2010
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF
I think you are confusing Garrett with Gareth. Normal for you, I guess.
Religion has been abused as an excuse from the dawn of history. Wars between different Buddhist kingdoms were far from unknown even in the Buddha's time. Buddhists have fought and killed knowing that there is no heaven waiting for them as heroes and martyrs, let alone as villains and traitors.
We must fight for our freedom, religion notwithstanding. But it is extraordinary 'greed, hatred and ignorance' that characterize the junta, the same states of mind that the Buddha teaches us to abhor and be rid of.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
13/04/2010
Garrett Wrote: 11/04/2010
1."Buddhism has been a regime tool during the decades-long perfect storm of political corruption and greed in Burma." How stupid to suggest Buddhism can be used for corruption and greed.
2."Buddhists make up the majority of the Tatmadaw, where they must replace Buddhist Dharma with the SPDC religion of corruption, greed, & ethnic persecution."
Another stupidity: tatmadaw (Royal Army)is borne out of Burmese/Myanmar population, 90% Buddhist.
3. "They are taught to acquire wealth by seizing land & resources, & to control, extort, & enslave millions of ethnic minority
citizens deemed by the SPDC as fair game to become property of the state." THEY? Really,nearly 500,000 soldiers acquiring wealth? 99.9% of Burmese soldiers are just living hand-to-mouth.
4. Wake up and try to understand the legacy of Panglong and of coloniser's divide-and-rule. Garrett is a Welsh name.
Garrett Wrote:
11/04/2010
I agree with Aung Moe that A.M.O.'s Buddhist reflective period for Than Shwe would solve nothing.
Buddhism has been a regime tool during the decades-long perfect storm of political corruption and greed in Burma.
Buddhists make up the majority of the Tatmadaw, where they must replace Buddhist Dharma with the SPDC religion of corruption, greed, & ethnic persecution.
Regime proselytes are taught to take advantage of the passive nature of Buddhist citizens,& the military domination of the ethnic minority citizens.
They are taught to acquire wealth by seizing land & resources, & to control, extort, & enslave millions of ethnic minority
citizens deemed by the SPDC as fair game to become property of the state.
Like all pyramid wealth scams, many do the dirty work, while few become wealthy. It is the wealthy few that Than Shwe & the Burmese citizens should fear most.
The many soldiers who have been used to dominate Burma, are the only political force feared by the wealthy few.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
10/04/2010
Keyboard operator error:
"Even as a youngster, at aged 13, our king's vision came true when Fargaung ShuMaung seized power on March 2, 1929" Read 1962 for 1929. APOLOGY TO READERS.
"Hence Gen. Tin Aung Myint Oo certainly heads the list in this respect. His son a captain in the Burma Army was given a slap across his face - a disco run by Tin Aung Myint Oo's son was forced to close - by that brat grandson of Than Shwe's a short while ago. "
COMMENT: Army officers at disco? How lowly, how shameful? Officers and gentlemen should leave such Western low culture to younger people, who have no appreciation of the finesse of Burmese culture.
Our king HM King Shwebomin II, even as a teenager in the West, never visited discos, plebeian venues, preferring Viennese walz and Polka, and high culture; even gypsy music is preferable to mindless disco dancing and music.
Slapping is women's prerogative; real men don't do that. Go for a duel or fight with sword.
George Than Setkyar Heine Wrote:
09/04/2010
Within the establishment, there are several other powerful and influential people who would enjoy seeing Than Shwe overthrown and humiliated.
Hence Gen. Tin Aung Myint Oo certainly heads the list in this respect. His son a captain in the Burma Army was given a slap across his face - a disco run by Tin Aung Myint Oo's son was forced to close - by that brat grandson of Than Shwe's a short while ago.
And the general tendered his resignation. What happened next nobody knows.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
09/04/2010
KKK Wrote: 08/04/2010, To Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF:
"Your Shwebomin appointed Than Shwe is dying. I don't think he can hold the 2010 sham election. This time, Gen Maung Aye will kill Than Shwe and his cronies. We can't wait to see the dogs fights."
COMMENT: Don't be so smug.If Sen Gen ThanShwe is dying, it is no credit to you or any of the anti-junta individuals; his illness iss not your making. If Gen. Maung Aye can take over, it is orderly transition; don't be so gleeful, nothing to do with you.
Show respect to Our king HM King Shwebomin II. Burma will progress as our king wisely foresees. Even as a youngster, at aged 13, our king's vision came true when Fargaung ShuMaung seized power on March 2, 1929. On that day a young Romanian diplomat arrived in Rangoon. He became ambassador to London in 1988.
You people can philosophise, hypothesise, theorise as you like, but you ain't seen nothing yet.
Moe Aung Wrote:
08/04/2010
A.M.O,
Since when does religion solve these intractable problems, unless you turn the other cheek all the time?
On the contrary, religion remains the favorite excuse/ red herring for so much communal strife and conflict in this world, the real reason as always being land, resources and ethnicity.
KKK Wrote:
08/04/2010
To Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF:
Your Shwebomin appointed Than Shwe is dying. I don't think he can hold the 2010 sham election. This time, Gen Maung Aye will kill Than Shwe and his cronies. We can't wait to see the dogs fights.
Myanmar Patriot 4 UMPF Wrote:
08/04/2010
"I think the enemy is within. Than Shwe knows this; he himself played a Machiavellian hand when he purged feared spy chief Gen Khin Nyunt and betrayed his mentor, Gen Ne Win, who died while under house arrest in 2002." COMMENT:You think? But we had known all along. The rest of the article is part speculation, part facts.
Nothing wrong with the military engaging in politics. It is the manner of engagement that counts.
Do you really think inexperienced, uneducated, ambitious, selfish, ignorant, self-styled leaders (by default) really bring Burma out of poverty? You must be joking. Sen.Gen ThanShwe's approach is perfectly correct and approved by our king HM King shwebomin II of Burma.
A.M.O Wrote:
08/04/2010
Well, Gen Than Shwe had enjoyed 'absolute power' for the past 20 years & accumulated wealth, through drugs & corruption, to the extent nobody seems unchallengeable to him.
To leave all these behind, either by loss of power base or natural end, is almost unimaginable to him; and these are his main fears that is driving him to become such paranoia.
If we seek an advice from a devout Buddhist; mostly he will urge Than Shwe to meditate & do some soul-searching such as what is magnanimity & forgiveness etc. To get out of this paranoia, his soul-searching should be focused on the pressing issues giving him the most stress causing it:
- Postpone '2010' to 2012 to get a relief for the moment
- Bring all stakeholders to iron-out all differences for half a year, maybe more
- During this time get a chance to show your magnanimity & forgiveness
- Ensure deferred election(2012) acceptable to democratic norms
In Buddhism, 'metta' or "love towards all beings" is the way to achieve peace of mind.
DetDoe Wrote:
08/04/2010
Burmese people have to learn from the people of Kyrgyzstan. Non-violence does not work. Than Shwe only understands force.
K Wrote:
08/04/2010
Growing a steady leadership pool is essential for long-lasting organizations. The NLD should borrow a line or two from TS's cook book in this regard.
Tettoe Aung Wrote:
08/04/2010
Maybe it's a dagger in front of him, but mark my words that it will not be the dagger that is in front of him that Than Shwe's fate will be sealed, it will be 'the Chinese cleaver' (tayoke dhama) that will slice him off.
Whoever the tyrant may be will he ever be able to evade the 'law of kamma'? I don't think so. It may or can be delayed but no one can escape. Even Buddha and his disciples Ashin Moggalan could not escape from 'vibagga' so who is Than Shwe to wish that he die peacefully in bed?
Tom Tun Wrote:
08/04/2010
I would like to give a piece of advice to Than Shwe. Remember, human beings are the slaves of feelings and temptations. Human beings do not serve anyone but their feelings and temptations. So, sleep well with your trusted man.
I share one comment before "Human can not change devil, only devil change human". That is how you arrested Ne Win and Khin Nyunt, Isn't it? I also shared once, there are 2 wolves inside us. Only doing good things will set you free.
Remember: (1) Speak the truth. (2) Do the right thing. (3) Love the rightousness.
The last 20 years, you do all opposite of those 3 titles. So, you are extremely lucky if you get out alive. UN and ICC is watching you. Can you trust your men?
Burmese people hate you from their deepest desire. Ask yourself, if you are doing the right thing, will it be the way it is now? Your fortune tellers are not enough to see the future of yours.
Moe Aung Wrote:
08/04/2010
Funny how postal clerks make dictators in Burma.
Ne Win (then Shu Maung) worked in the postal service before he joined what became the legendary Thirty Comrades through the good office of his mentor Ba Sein-Tun Oke faction (of the Dobama Association) that later spawned the Socialist Party like it had spelled a curse on Burma which we still remain under.
So I guess 'going postal' acquires a whole new dimension in Burma.
Yes, "Et tu, Bruté?" may well be Than Shwe's famous last words too, sooner rather than later, after he granted the army carte blanche to meddle with politics as it sees fit. Democracy subject to 'discipline' by the men in uniform. A whole new dimension to democracy too.
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